Madeleine McCann's parents

elmarko · 15 Oct 2013 at 20:19

deaglecat said:
Fantastic... lets just abolish the criminal justice system and go by the statistical likelihood. Nice job.

Nobody suggested such a thing, we are talking probability.

estebanrey said:
You made the claim that the parents killing Maddie then covering it up was statistically more likely than her being kidnapped (given the two hypothesis being discussed).

Those stats suggest you are far more likely to be kidnapped/go missing than murdered by your own parents.

I gave an example, by saying "it may be that them killing her has the least assumptions" which is based off say the sniffer dog evidence, not speaking generally about kidnapping vs murder stats - that was point you made.

The examples I gave were that if she was killed, it was more likely to be the family - if she was kidnapped - it was more likely to be the family - either way the stats make assuming the parents may be involved nothing to be considered being a tin foil hat fashion icon.

UncleRuckus · 15 Oct 2013 at 20:21

Every ten days in England and Wales one child is killed at the hands of their parent. In over two thirds (67% on average) of all cases of children killed at the hands of another person, the parent is the principal suspect.

http://www.nspcc.org.uk/inform/research/statistics/child_homicide_statistics_wda48747.html

RDM · 15 Oct 2013 at 20:22

elmarko said:
Do you even understand basic statistics?

The kidnapping was a different study (ergo the different data sample size, different region - the second study was in the US or an organisation in the view of the WHO) - hence why I said "Another study" - you can't cut & dice data from two different studies (you will get odd results).

She was either kidnapped (which the family are the most likely to be responsible), or she was murdered (Which the family are also most likely to be responsible).

But what is more likely, getting kidnapped by someone other than your parents or being murdered by your parents?

Uther · 15 Oct 2013 at 20:23

The ideal outcome for the Portuguese police would have been finding out the McCanns did it.Would have wrapped it up quickly without any damage to the tourist trade (has the tourist trade been damaged there, with a child kidnapper on the loose? Or is it all forgotten now.)
I am also not so sure they both did it, but could imagine one being guilty, and the other one either playing along, or being strung along.

RDM · 15 Oct 2013 at 20:26

elmarko said:
Nobody suggested such a thing, we are talking probability.

I gave an example, by saying "it may be that them killing her has the least assumptions" which is based off say the sniffer dog evidence, not speaking generally about kidnapping vs murder stats - that was point you made.

The examples I gave were that if she was killed, it was more likely to be the family - if she was kidnapped - it was more likely to be the family - either way the stats make assuming the parents may be involved nothing to be considered being a tin foil hat fashion icon.

The assumption isn't "murdered by parents" it is "murdered by parents, covered up successfully by parents, lied about for years by parents" vs "abducted".

Destination · 15 Oct 2013 at 20:30

estebanrey said:
Maybe because your question was leading and contrary to what Sliver was saying. You were asking how he was "certain" when he never claimed to be in the first place.

It's a pretty dumb question given if anyone was 'certain' then the case would have been solved already (or they are the kidnapper).

Incorrect, he stated he was certain their was no cover up by the McCanns. I am asking him if he is certain this extends to the possible use of medications on their own children rendering them so tired they wouldn't respond to a strange picking them up?
He hasn't answered yet.
I'd like to know what he thinks.

Personally, I doubt they had time to kill and stash Maddy within the allotted timeframes, I don't think this is a reasonably suggestion.
I just ponder regarding all the unanswered little pieces of information that build a wider picture.

elmarko · 15 Oct 2013 at 20:30

RDM said:
But what is more likely, getting kidnapped by someone other than your parents or being murdered by your parents?

Being kidnapped by one your parents of family member.

You can't slice & dice two parts & ignore the most probable one - I never suggested it was more likely to be

But if you want to compare the rates between parental murder & long term abduction (which isn't murder) of below 5 year olds (ie, when a kid is snatched then kept in a basement for years) then I'd wager good money murder is more common. (need to find the statistics for that).

You can't compare abductions where the child is returned or given back against murder rates in this scenario anyway.

It's a pointless debate anyway, all I was saying was that it's not completely irrational to suspect the parents is an alleged child murder/abduction case (more-so with multiple counts of corpse scent found by sniffer dogs).

It's unknown, but either opposing theories have some merit.

feedtheram · 15 Oct 2013 at 20:34

elmarko said:
The examples I gave were that if she was killed, it was more likely to be the family - if she was kidnapped - it was more likely to be the family - either way the stats make assuming the parents may be involved nothing to be considered being a tin foil hat fashion icon.

If you knew nothing about the case then your money would be best placed on the parents. We do know facts about this case and therefore the probability changes, so i would argue that the probability of them being involved changes.

If they were performing live in-front of 2000 people while the girl went missing you wouldn't argue that they were still the most likely suspects.

deaglecat · 15 Oct 2013 at 20:46

Danthus · 15 Oct 2013 at 21:11

LOL Victims.

batsy · 15 Oct 2013 at 21:13

deaglecat said:
I for one think the parents are victims...sure they made a mistake but the price they paid was disproportionate to their (lack of) oversight. Didn't the police bug their calls after the kidnapping ? it would have been pretty likely that their story would have unravelled by now... which it has not.

This is what I don't get. With such a high profile case (and going by what the Snowden leaks have shown) surely the intelligence services have access to mountains of phone/text and internet data on them from yesterday and going back more than six years.

Danthus · 15 Oct 2013 at 22:13

From hero to zero.

Bradley Wiggins what were you thinking.

Meridian · 15 Oct 2013 at 22:33

Django x2 said:
I'm far from convinced, but I fail to see how, a car, rented 3 weeks later, has the "smell of death" and DNA from Maddy in it.

You know this was one of the many bits of "evidence" released by the UK press that they just made up, right? As came out in a court case brought by the McCanns a couple of years ago. Pretty much everything reported at the time by the tabloid papers was a pack of lies, as they admitted in court.

SexyGreyFox · 15 Oct 2013 at 22:40

Meridian said:
You know this was one of the many bits of "evidence" released by the UK press that they just made up, right? As came out in a court case brought by the McCanns a couple of years ago. Pretty much everything reported at the time by the tabloid papers was a pack of lies, as they admitted in court.

Stop bringing facts into it.
We have many posters here who are more expert than the professionals and have thought of the things that nobody has ever thought of before.

Django x2 · 15 Oct 2013 at 23:20

Meridian said:
You know this was one of the many bits of "evidence" released by the UK press that they just made up, right? As came out in a court case brought by the McCanns a couple of years ago. Pretty much everything reported at the time by the tabloid papers was a pack of lies, as they admitted in court.

That's fine, apart from the police report papers posted fractionally earlier which suggest the dogs singled the car out in a vehicle compound

Xordium · 15 Oct 2013 at 23:25

Dimple said:
Stop bringing facts into it.
We have many posters here who are more expert than the professionals and have thought of the things that nobody has ever thought of before.

There are no real facts in this case though bar the blatantly obvious.

One girl has disappeared. Her parents wilfully left her alone in an apartment, of a nighttime, with an unlocked door that not only opened out onto an unsupervised swimming pool but also a publically accessible gate.

This is of course after dumping her in a kids club all morning and afternoon. You have to wonder why they took her on holiday if they didn't want to spend any time with her? :confused:

Danthus · 15 Oct 2013 at 23:26

It was bad enough leaving the 4 year old but they left the two your old twins as well.

itchy · 16 Oct 2013 at 00:06

Madeleine McCann's parents ...........

Should be in jail!!! :rolleyes:

Who on this earth leaves a child that young on there own!!!

WHO!!! :mad:

I have run the shop and I mean 10 min dash tops and left my 6 year old, who is a good kid. I was twitching to death!!! She was fine and said "dad you were quick" too right I was!!!

Edit And thats in my own house and country!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

To go for a meal and leave a child that young!!!! on there own is ....
I am not going to say much but... how did they even swallow the food knowing that the child was alone!!!!! :confused:

The whole thing stinks am sorry to say !! Rotten to the core!!

ChroniC · 16 Oct 2013 at 00:31

Not just one child, three!!

Jambo · 16 Oct 2013 at 00:49

itchy said:
Madeleine McCann's parents ...........

Should be in jail!!!

Who on this earth leaves a child that young on there own!!!

WHO!!!

I have run the shop and I mean 10 min dash tops and left my 6 year old, who is a good kid. I was twitching to death!!! She was fine and said "dad you were quick" too right I was!!!
Edit And thats in my own house and country!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

To go for a meal and leave a child that young!!!! on there own is ....
I am not going to say much but... how did they even swallow the food knowing that the child was alone!!!!!

The whole thing stinks am sorry to say !! Rotten to the core!!

This is very hypocritical from someone who leaves a 6 year old on their own.