Or "Sony and Microsoft wanted to pay peanuts and it wasn't worth our time and effort". Given the economics of the console business I'd go with the razor margins reasoning over the belief of some AMD shareholders that it's a highly profitable game to be in.
NV were in the original Xbox and the engineering resources required meant they dropped the ball which AMD picked up and ran with. Then the situation was reversed with the 360 (the PS3 doest count as it was a last minute panic buy when Sony realised Cell wouldn't do everything they thought it would). Now AMD have put a bunch of resources behind the new consoles, will the cycle repeat? Another reason NV were wary about going for the business.
There are reasons beyond the contracts themselves that AMD were happy to get into the consoles - the expansion opportunity for their semi-custom initiative, for example. Nvidia didn't have the eco-system in place for such an opportunity.
Even disregarding that, though, they are still demonstrably making good returns on the consoles. I'm not sure why you are continuing to ignore the facts in favour of conjecture based upon Nvidia's downplaying of missing out (or withdrawing from bidding) on a big contract
