Trading the stockmarket (NO Referrals)

[Irish_Tom]

If I've learned one thing over the last fee days it's that I'm rubbish at predicting the market's reaction to news.

Mothercare release a poor full-year report and the SP goes up 25 points. Royal Mail post record profits and they drop 10% in a day.

Today QPP announce a huge increase in pre-tax profits, they are still on target for main market listing and a share consolidation and the SP remains completely static.

That's just three examples in the last two days of outcomes that seem to fly in the face of the actual results.

I understand what Silversurfer was saying the other day about 'buy on the rumour, sell on the news' and also the idea that know quantities are usually factored into the SP before the announcement so it's usually only 'surprises' that will create a big swing but seriously…

The more I learn about the market the more I respect day traders because trying to predict where the price is going on a day-to-day basis seems like witchcraft to me at the moment.

It certainly seems easier (although not easy) to go long for six-months or more with a company that has solid fundamentals than to select the 'perfect' entry point within a small daily range.

I guess I still have a lot to learn!

 

[dowie]

I did change brokers but at the time they were all doing the same. No live dealing as such, you could submit an order, now my broker doesnt charge for orders which is good

Perhpas you're rather unlucky and the brokers you happened to have accounts with at the time were both rather naff. The idea that you couldn't place an order as a result of some conspiracy to cater to people with bigger accounts is very dubious however - if you had an issue placing orders then its likely an IT issue with one or other of the brokers you tried to use at the time... presumably they have some rudimentary web interface to allow retail customers to deal and that was having difficulties/couldn't cope with an increased volume.

Unfortunately, as a result of stamp duty, there isn't much incentive to cater to people wanting to actively trade UK equities in the way there is for futures or for US equities... unless more firms start offering direct access for retail customers using CFDs. In an ideal world you ought to have the option of a variety of different ISVs some of which would offer ASP solutions independent of your broker, some would require your broker to host servers at the exchange etc..etc.. Instead, for most people, you're probably reliant on some web interface to enter an order and the broker does the rest.

 

[Russinating]

If I've learned one thing over the last fee days it's that I'm rubbish at predicting the market's reaction to news.

As you mentioned, the result is already in the price.

The massive things that I've learnt over the past few years are:

a) Don't touch crappy AIM/penny stocks
b) Don't panic
c) Don't trade yourself into a position that may cause panic

If anyone saw a few days ago I suggested longing EZJ and shorting ABF. Both went the opposite ways at first but I closed ABF today for a 50 point profit after it fell back down as predicted and EZJ is rising after I was 50 points down. This still has loads to go (currently at 1568 and I'm waiting for 1700).

I don't use stop losses because they just catch you out and I don't panic if I'm down because any decent trade will override any temporary random swings.

For example ABF is now at 2960. At some point in the next 7 days I can almost guarantee it will be over 3000 again. Before then it may drop below 2900, but as long as that doesn't trip your margin then who cares.

 

[Irish_Tom]

As you mentioned, the result is already in the price.

Which would make sense if there wasn't such unpredictable swings on the day the news/results are released.

The massive things that I've learnt over the past few years are:

a) Don't touch crappy AIM/penny stocks
b) Don't panic
c) Don't trade yourself into a position that may cause panic

If anyone saw a few days ago I suggested longing EZJ and shorting ABF. Both went the opposite ways at first but I closed ABF today for a 50 point profit after it fell back down as predicted and EZJ is rising after I was 50 points down. This still has loads to go (currently at 1568 and I'm waiting for 1700).

I don't use stop losses because they just catch you out and I don't panic if I'm down because any decent trade will override any temporary random swings.

For example ABF is now at 2960. At some point in the next 7 days I can almost guarantee it will be over 3000 again. Before then it may drop below 2900, but as long as that doesn't trip your margin then who cares.

I've already been through a moment of panic that would have work out well if I'd kept my head so I'm with you on that one.

At the moment I'm not in a position to confidently play the swings on £10+ stocks, more for the exposure than the margin, especially if you don't use a stop loss!

I also don't have the time at work to keep a close enough eye on things throughout the day to react so I'm looking at long/medium-term gains.

I do appreciate what you're saying and my aim/hope is that over the next year or so I will build up my experience (and my stake) so that I can trade the bigger stocks.

 

[snitcher]

genl/gkp also have potential with the oil being shipped to turkey directly from kurdistan without Baghdad influence.

 

[silversurfer]

gkp looks pretty dam bad and genl great. They are both in a middle of a mess, turkey, kurds and main of iraq but kurds have less random terrorism (30 year war on off with turkey not included)

Elections soon I think. Last time I waited till after to buy and that worked well


Royal Mail is just within a normal range I think, its lucky just to be at 500-600 rated highly. I would like it lower and it doesnt look strong so maybe but it does seem most likely to ping between known points not break down; especially with higher ftse
I sold some but I was too early so quite glad it fell and I was not completely wrong

Naked trader holds his still

 

[Gman]

Is there any way you can start trading in small amounts? i'm thinking of say putting in £500 to play with then making small trades here and there say £100 at the most.

From what I can find for each trade they charge around £13. Is this the way things are or are there cheaper ways out there

 

[dowie]

Is there any way you can start trading in small amounts? i'm thinking of say putting in £500 to play with then making small trades here and there say £100 at the most.

From what I can find for each trade they charge around £13. Is this the way things are or are there cheaper ways out there

if you're looking at just building up a small portfolio which you're going to hold on to, not interested in short term trade/market timing then this might be feasible:

http://www.halifax.co.uk/sharedealing/products/sharebuilder/more-details.asp

Otherwise for short term trading there are spread betting providers - be careful here are they're deceptively expensive - the cost of crossing the spread and things like interest charges will add up and they're a relatively high cost for someone such as yourself with a small account. Most spread betting clients lose money.

 

[Russinating]

Which would make sense if there wasn't such unpredictable swings on the day the news/results are released.



I've already been through a moment of panic that would have work out well if I'd kept my head so I'm with you on that one.

At the moment I'm not in a position to confidently play the swings on £10+ stocks, more for the exposure than the margin, especially if you don't use a stop loss!

I also don't have the time at work to keep a close enough eye on things throughout the day to react so I'm looking at long/medium-term gains.

I do appreciate what you're saying and my aim/hope is that over the next year or so I will build up my experience (and my stake) so that I can trade the bigger stocks.

I only had about £700 in my SB account when I was trading £10+ shares, so you don't need a huge amount, but understand your caution.

I also don't keep an eye on things at all throughout the day. I often set stop limits so they'll close if they reach the target price but swings the opposite way I'm not too fussed about in the short term.

 

[Russinating]

For example ABF is now at 2960. At some point in the next 7 days I can almost guarantee it will be over 3000 again.

And there you go. Sooner than I thought mind but it's just gone over 3000 sell.

Even though I knew it'd happen I still don't have the balls to drop a £10pp trade .

 

[Azza]

Fidelity have dropped the costs on several of their index trackers.

http://www.citywire.co.uk/money/fid...e/a753242?ref=citywire-money-latest-news-list

I'm with Fidelity but stacked with BlackRock trackers so this is an interesting development. With have to investigate how their tracking error holds up. Last time I checked their UK funds were not great in comparison to BR, Vanguard, HSBC.

 

[BombayMix]

My sell order on Cineworld triggered, a few 100 pounds profit for a few months investment. Probably put the money into Woodford new fund.

Don't fancy the new IPOs: Game and TSB.

 

[silversurfer]

Any great reason for me to hold onto Apple especially here I wonder.

I dont actually own any of their products really but just seemed cheap but its gone up 50% might be time to sell or maybe I should hold till 700. Its really gone up recently and I usually sell too early :/

QPP still drifting I see, some recovery in AAZ maybe

Lloyds will list around 25% of TSB in the London flotation, expected to take place next month, which is being carried out to meet rules imposed by the European Commission following the bail out of Lloyds in 2008 at the height of the financial crisis.

It must sell the rest of the stake by the end of next year (2015).

TSB ipo I think is a maybe
http://tsbshareoffer.equiniti.com/docs/IntentionToFloatAnnouncement.pdf
http://tsbshareoffer.equiniti.com/docs/IntermediariesFactsheet.pdf
http://sut5.co.uk/sLLCeL7Fs8NhuLvf2...wLj5xOzEtTQ0NDQAKCEoEABkfBQMJHF1HSktCR1gfDBQW

Last week, the word on the street was that the pricing for the float was likely to be at the "bottom" end reflecting a weakening of investor interest in UK floats.

On Friday, over 50's insurer and holidays group Saga (LON:SAGA) made a disappointing debut as conditional dealings began after it set its offer price at the bottom of the already reduced range, and Fatface, the clothes retailer, scrapped plans to list its shares on the stock exchange, blaming market conditions.

Game is a declining market isnt it, they'd have to be clever

drop a £10pp trade

30k is more like an index bet then just 1 share, overnight at least

 

[Irish_Tom]

And there you go. Sooner than I thought mind but it's just gone over 3000 sell.

Even though I knew it'd happen I still don't have the balls to drop a £10pp trade .

What stake did you put on it Russinating?

 

[PAz]

H-L now offering live share prices which is nice.

 

[booyaka]

Probably put the money into Woodford new fund.

Whilst he is the "darling" of the masses - you actually look at the funds performance, there are many better out there. Don't get me wrong - IP HIgh Income fund etc has been a staple for many of my clients over the years but it's certainly not the be all and end all of funds.

I'm not convinced about his new fund

 

[BombayMix]

Whilst he is the "darling" of the masses - you actually look at the funds performance, there are many better out there. Don't get me wrong - IP HIgh Income fund etc has been a staple for many of my clients over the years but it's certainly not the be all and end all of funds.

I'm not convinced about his new fund

Like what fund? I've already got a UK share fund (link) but I'm not convinced about that one. Probably hedge my bets for a while before settling for one.

An european fund might be an idea too I reckon.

 

[Bear]

Whilst he is the "darling" of the masses - you actually look at the funds performance, there are many better out there. Don't get me wrong - IP HIgh Income fund etc has been a staple for many of my clients over the years but it's certainly not the be all and end all of funds.

Definately not but its steady, I got a 14% return on mine for the year and while its not stellar its decent. Sure there are funds returning 30% or more but thats just another fund to invest in to spread the risk around.

 

[BombayMix]

And are they going to get 30% year on year?! Often one stellar stock can raise it one year, so lots of people invest but the next year it doesn't do so well.

 

[Bear]

Like what fund? I've already got a UK share fund (link) but I'm not convinced about that one. Probably hedge my bets for a while before settling for one.

An european fund might be an idea too I reckon.

Unicorn Smaller Companies is one that seems to do very well as well as Casanove now Shroder UK dynamic smaller companies. I dont hold either and I dont claim to know anything either