Winter 2014 - Weather Predictions

[Rroff]

Computer models showing a chance of fairly country wide wintery conditions/snow 22-24 Nov but will be vying with milder conditions coming in from the south west - which current projections show becoming dominant over the south of England atleast by the 23rd.

(Guessing the highlands will get significant snowfall and the rest of us rain most likely).

 

[Mark A]

Hoping for some snow, but I predict it'll be the most average winter since records began.

 

[Amp34]

Met office have released their "rest of 2014" forecast. Slightly milder and wetter than usual with a bit of wind and the possibility of colder conditions in January.

So, a standard British winter then...

 

[TonyTurbo78]

probably the warmest on record seeing how things are going. I was actually more than comfortable yesterday, running errands in jeans and t-shirt, and believe it or not I was actually to warm. I could have quite easily wore 3/4 length shorts and t-shirt. Madness for November.

 

[Neil79]

probably the warmest on record seeing how things are going. I was actually more than comfortable yesterday, running errands in jeans and t-shirt, and believe it or not I was actually to warm. I could have quite easily wore 3/4 length shorts and t-shirt. Madness for November.

It was only 12C yesterday, not overweight are you Tony? It was chilly, chilly last night too



http://app.til.it/opi/

Based on the above, 2014-15 winter should experience a very disturbed Polar Vortex, with frequent high meridian flow and intrusions of the Arctic Jet towards the mid latitudes. October pattern does not suggest, overall, a very cold winter, frequent colder periods will be possible, with widespread snow over Europe and central-eastern United States.

Another site/model predicting an average winter with the odd cold blast of snowy winter. Which is far better than last year where we had no snow or frost

 

[Neil79]

No sitting on the fence for me this year, I can't divulge too much of my own thoughts as I have a winter forecast that I need to produce and provide for clients, but I've said it enough on twitter for it not to be a secret and over the space of Dec to Feb and especially if you include March as well, even though not a winter month of course, I'm expecting a winter completely different to last year and a strat vortex that, at some point, wil get ripped apart and a result have a big impact on the troposphere further down the line and it could well be the middle and back end of the winter that provides those 'winter goodies' for those who want it.

Cheers,

Matt.

 

[SPG]

I predict the met office will demand and waste another load of taxpayers money and put out weather warnings that are so obvious a blind man who speaka no english could tell you.

The met office is now a political weapon.

 

[Rroff]

Literally saw someone today in shorts and t-shirt :S (dodging the rain).

Interesting setup with the cold weather hitting the US/Canada at the moment as it has the potential to bring similar conditions to what we saw at the start of this year again next which would likely offset any colder weather but too uncertain at the moment.

 

[Neil79]

Literally saw someone today in shorts and t-shirt :S (dodging the rain).

Interesting setup with the cold weather hitting the US/Canada at the moment as it has the potential to bring similar conditions to what we saw at the start of this year again next which would likely offset any colder weather but too uncertain at the moment.

It happens every year as it did pre-2010 but this year differs globally and it's the upper patterns which will dictate DEC onwards

 

[D.P.]

Literally saw someone today in shorts and t-shirt :S (dodging the rain).

Interesting setup with the cold weather hitting the US/Canada at the moment as it has the potential to bring similar conditions to what we saw at the start of this year again next which would likely offset any colder weather but too uncertain at the moment.

The cold weather hitting the US and Canada last year was the reason that the UK's winter was so exceptional mild. Not that it is impossible to have a cold eastern seaboard and a cold NW Europe but personally I would be looking at opposite signals. Deep code down the US east coast supports explosive cyclogensis and a very active Atlantic.

 

[NexusK]

Literally saw someone today in shorts and t-shirt :S (dodging the rain).

Not surprised. I'm still wearing a t-shirt going out for a (chest killing) jog in the mornings unless it's wet. Heating is turned back off now too and was only on for a couple of days last week.

 

[leaskovski]

Youtube video...

Nice, I like that. Very informative. Now subscribed.

Oh, and slating of the Express. Bonus!

 

[Burnsy2023]

I predict the met office will demand and waste another load of taxpayers money and put out weather warnings that are so obvious a blind man who speaka no english could tell you.

Yet people still get stuck in floods etc when the Met Office has issued severe weather warnings?

 

[StriderX]

Yet people still get stuck in floods etc when the Met Office has issued severe weather warnings?

Gee i dunno, dont live in flood plains maybe?

Kthx...no seriously, its a dull as all hell thing to get worked up by, logic would handedly dictate to stop living in silly places.

 

[~>Dg<~]

as usual bland mild up until time its supposed to be spring then we will have deep snow and very cold spells .

 

[BriT]

Looking at the long term charts, its very zonal with low after low and no cold weather

 

[physichull]

So long as its mild over the Xmas hols, want to try and get plenty of cycling in so don't want inclement weather.

 

[McBain]

Cold.

 

[Rroff]

The cold weather hitting the US and Canada last year was the reason that the UK's winter was so exceptional mild. Not that it is impossible to have a cold eastern seaboard and a cold NW Europe but personally I would be looking at opposite signals. Deep code down the US east coast supports explosive cyclogensis and a very active Atlantic.

Which is what I'm saying, the intrusion seen last year and again signs of it this year (which isn't the same as in the past) had the knock on effect of mild and wet lows coming in off the Atlantic hence the flooding, etc. we had.

It happens every year as it did pre-2010 but this year differs globally and it's the upper patterns which will dictate DEC onwards

Problem with his video though the setup is similar to 2009 in 2009 it coincided with one of the lowest levels of solar activity in recent history which will make for some differences.

 

[markoboyo11]

Altho the temperature and precipitation affect my job greatly the only thing I really care about as it can cost me a fortune is the wind.
Please be calm and if you have to blow make it south east.
That's all I want for Christmas.