Big Swing in Market Share From AMD to NVIDIA: JPR

Boomstick777 · 16 Nov 2014 at 00:13

Quick report highlights:

AMD's overall unit shipments decreased 7% quarter-to-quarter, Intel's total shipments increased 11.6% from last quarter, and Nvidia's jumped 12.9%.
The attach rate of GPUs (includes integrated and discrete GPUs) to PCs, for the quarter was 155% (up 2%) and 32% of PCs had discrete GPUs, (flat from last quarter), which means 68% of PCs today are using the embedded graphics in the CPU.
The overall PC market increased 6.9% quarter-to-quarter, and decreased 2.6% year-to-year.
Desktop graphics add-in boards (AIBs) that use discrete GPUs increased 7.8% from last quarter.

The Gaming PC segment, where higher-end GPUs are used, was a bright spot in the market in Q3. Nvidia's new high-end Maxwell GPUs sales were strong, lifting the ASPs for the discrete GPU market.

Q3 2014 saw a flattening in tablet sales from the first decline in sales last quarter. The CAGR for total PC graphics from 2014 to 2017 is up to almost 3%. We expect the total shipments of graphics chips in 2017 to be 510 million units. In 2013, 454 million GPUs were shipped and the forecast for 2014 is 468 million.

The quarter in general

AMD's shipments of desktop heterogeneous GPU/CPUs, i.e., APUs increased 10.5% from the previous quarter, and decreased 16% in notebooks. AMD's discrete desktop shipments decreased 19% and notebook discrete shipments increased 10%. The company's overall PC graphics shipments decreased 7%.
Intel's desktop processor embedded graphics (EPGs) shipments decreased from last quarter by 0.3%, and notebooks increased by 18.6%. The company's overall PC graphics shipments increased 11.6%.
Nvidia's desktop discrete shipments increased 24.3% from last quarter; and the company's notebook discrete shipments increased 3.5%. The company's overall PC graphics shipments increased 12.9%.
Year-to-year this quarter AMD's overall PC shipments decreased 24%, Intel increased 19%, Nvidia decreased 4%, and the others essentially are too small to measure.
Total discrete GPU (desktop and notebook) shipments from the last quarter increased 6.6%, and decreased 7.7% from last year. Sales of discrete GPUs fluctuate due to a variety of factors (timing, memory pricing, etc.), new product introductions, and the influence of integrated graphics. Overall, the trend for discrete GPUs has increased with a CAGR from 2014 to 2017 now of 3%.
Ninety nine percent of Intel's non-server processors have graphics, and over 66% of AMD's non-server processors contain integrated graphics; AMD still ships integrated graphics chipsets (IGPs).

Year-to-year for the quarter, the graphics market has decreased. However, shipments were up 7.8 million units from this quarter last year, which is the biggest increase in quite a while.

http://www.techpowerup.com/207180/big-swing-in-market-share-from-amd-to-nvidia-jpr.html

jh30uk · 16 Nov 2014 at 00:28

kazuya1337 · 16 Nov 2014 at 00:42

And that boys and girls is the ONLY reason FreeSync and Mantle are open source (atm).

JediFragger · 16 Nov 2014 at 00:43

Damn, that's a big swing!! nVidia certainly seem to be on top atm in the discrete market...

Orangey · 16 Nov 2014 at 00:48

APUs & mobile up, dGPU only down 7% despite being right before a new series launch & Maxwell. Looking good for AMD, so much for doomsayers & shorters.

Also nice to see desktop GPUs on the rise, would like to show that to some people on AT forums.

Boomstick777 · 16 Nov 2014 at 00:50

AMD can boune back strong if they get 20nm + HBM out early enough. That would be a big incentive over the competition. Good to see AMD desktop APU sales up, shame that notebook APU continue to decline. Then Carrizo could see things pick up there as well.

almighty15 · 16 Nov 2014 at 00:52

Boomstick777 said:
AMD can boune back strong if they get 20nm + HBM out early enough. That would be a big incentive over the competition. Good to see AMD desktop APU sales up, shame that notebook APU continue to decline. Then Carrizo could see things pick up there as well.

It'll all come down to performance and price, HBM alone won't do jack.

Boomstick777 · 16 Nov 2014 at 00:54

almighty15 said:
It'll all come down to performance and price, HBM alone won't do jack.

Well obviously that was with assuming that HBM will bring performance improvements + lower power consumption hence the incentive

If it was crap I doubt AMD would implement it at all

AMD's DGPU sales will no doubt pick up with their next big release, hopefully comes sooner rather than later.

humbug · 16 Nov 2014 at 02:00

AMD need to put cards on the market that are a lot faster and a lot cheaper than Nvidia.

Its no good just messing about at the fringes making card that are just as fast and a bit cheaper.

They just have to go all out and destroy the competition

_Alatar_ · 16 Nov 2014 at 02:16

Remember, this takes into account time before maxwell as well. Maxwell was barely out in time for Q3 since Q3 ends on the last day of september.

Anyway, high end shipment info:

our supply-chain conversations indicate that NVIDIA’s GeForce GTX 980/970 has comprised over 80% of high-end card shipments to channel partners since mid-September.

http://blogs.barrons.com/techtrader...re-from-amd-in-gpu/?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo

It's not pretty, however Q4 will be the real deal. AMD has already put out quite terrible predictions for Q4, which is part of the reason why they had to cut their workforce by 7%.

Boomstick777 said:
20nm

Not happening for high end. Not in time for 390X at least. And after that I don't see why you'd bother.

HBM

Max capacity of 4GB until H1 2016.

humbug · 16 Nov 2014 at 02:21

_Alatar_ said:
Not happening for high end. Not in time for 390X at least. And after that I don't see why you'd bother.

Unless you know something the rest of us don't your just speculating, so what brings you to that conclusion?

VincentHanna · 16 Nov 2014 at 02:24

Wow. You'd think Nvidia had just released some new GPU's or something....

Orangey · 16 Nov 2014 at 02:57

humbug said:
Unless you know something the rest of us don't your just speculating, so what brings you to that conclusion?

Everything I have read says that the yields crater above 200mm and the power characteristics are not there either (leakage etc). Density doesn't seem to have any complaints but the transistors have to be viable, bunging billions of them on a chip without the other pieces of the puzzle is impossible. It has to make sense economically and technologically.

I said earlier 28nm FD-SOI (which is more like a low-20s process) @ GF is my bet. Others have said 28SHP. It is perfectly possible to make viable products vs Maxwell, even GM200, on these. I actually saw someone suggest they would do a full shrink down to GF 14nm after introducing HBM on 28nm, but as has been said many a time that process is only meant for mobile chips so I was a bit confused by that. I assumed they'd go 16FF+ same as NV.

triss · 16 Nov 2014 at 03:00

TBH i dont care if the next gen cards are 20nm or 28nm aslong as its a reasonable performance boost at a reasonable cost

CAT-THE-FIFTH · 16 Nov 2014 at 03:10

Orangey said:
Everything I have read says that the yields crater above 200mm and the power characteristics are not there either (leakage etc). Density doesn't seem to have any complaints but the transistors have to be viable, bunging billions of them on a chip without the other pieces of the puzzle is impossible. It has to make sense economically and technologically.

I said earlier 28nm FD-SOI (which is more like a low-20s process) @ GF is my bet. Others have said 28SHP. It is perfectly possible to make viable products vs Maxwell, even GM200, on these. I actually saw someone suggest they would do a full shrink down to GF 14nm after introducing HBM on 28nm, but as has been said many a time that process is only meant for mobile chips so I was a bit confused by that. I assumed they'd go 16FF+ same as NV.

At least for the sub 150MM2 AMD APUs,the GF 28NM bulk process seems to have better density and power consumption characteristics over the TSMC 28NM process.

It also seems that the 300MM2+ console SOCs are going to be made at GF too,so if that is the case AMD already has experience using it for larger chips.

humbug · 16 Nov 2014 at 03:18

It doesn't bode well if AMD can't make GPU's above 200mm, even on 20nm that's a 280X with HBM?

They might as well not bother and stick with the 290's.

Orangey · 16 Nov 2014 at 03:35

An article about 28nm FD-SOI and Cadence (design support partner):

https://www.semiwiki.com/forum/content/3701-fd-soi-20nm-performance-28nm-cost.html

And then saying that, you know, we also had a couple of customers decide to use the FDSOI for the 28 and 20 and then some go beyond that.

AMD a customer of Cadence: http://community.cadence.com/cadenc...ers-partners-outline-challenges-and-successes

Global Foundries' involvement:

http://www.st.com/web/en/press/c2720

They are looking to bring it down to 14nm, as the first link also states. So that would allow a full shrink to compete against Maxwell's 16FF+ @ TSMC, when the time comes.

edit: after saying all that I just found this link: http://deepchip.com/items/0538-10.html

I have not been paid to say these things! Wish I was! LOLZORDS

TheRealDeal · 16 Nov 2014 at 09:22

AMD must know by now that simply matching Nvidia on performance or undercutting them on price is not enough. There's just to many people out there that just think Nvidia along the lines of people who think Nike are value for money. The only time AMD had the market share was when the 9700/9800 pro came out and that was due to them thrashing both the top end 4 and 5 series. If i was the AMD Manager i would call for a hail mary as atm Nvidia's image is to strong. Amd do just about everything right but get no reward as the market seriously is not very well informed.

Nvidia deserve cudos for getting themselves in this position with some very good products over the years. AMD are treading water tbh which will only keep them afloat for so long. A killer product is needed but can they produce one.

Gregster · 16 Nov 2014 at 10:10

I have been at Hull Collage with Team GB (Platform Expo 2014) since Thursday and teaching people about overclocking and general benching. Most of the people I spoke with were students and they were very inquisitive about hardware and what was the best way to go. I responded with Intel and nVidia.... I had spoken to so many people who owned a PC (some high end, some low end) and got their opinion on how things ran. The one's who prominently had problems were the ones who owned AMD, in fact, I asked a good 100+ people on this and not one of them who owned nVidia (which was the majority) had a problem but the guys who owned AMD had several and the most common was black screens at random times and game issues.

I also got asked a lot on what I would buy and recommend and as much as I wanted to say AMD, after speaking with people with so many different systems, I found I couldn't.

This could be why nVidia are doing so well and AMD are struggling.

TheRealDeal · 16 Nov 2014 at 10:34

Gregster said:
I have been at Hull Collage with Team GB (Platform Expo 2014) since Thursday and teaching people about overclocking and general benching. Most of the people I spoke with were students and they were very inquisitive about hardware and what was the best way to go. I responded with Intel and nVidia.... I had spoken to so many people who owned a PC (some high end, some low end) and got their opinion on how things ran. The one's who prominently had problems were the ones who owned AMD, in fact, I asked a good 100+ people on this and not one of them who owned nVidia (which was the majority) had a problem but the guys who owned AMD had several and the most common was black screens at random times and game issues.

I also got asked a lot on what I would buy and recommend and as much as I wanted to say AMD, after speaking with people with so many different systems, I found I couldn't.

This could be why nVidia are doing so well and AMD are struggling.

You only need to look at these forums as of late to see that this is not the case at least gpu wise. I think AMD moved along with the r9 series apart from the awful cooler and the black screens which effect them massively sales wise. Then we have NV with coil whine and not so great multi card performance yet record sales. Nvidia on build quality and drivers seem to have taken a step back with the 9 series. There reputation does not seem to suffer from there mistakes the way amd does.