Will UKIP win its first seat in parliament tonight?

Freakbro said:
Oh well, didn't see that. Didn't think it deserved it's own thread and my commentry was more about he purposefully has chosen Thanet to go up against UKIP / Farage
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And so is the other one :) Nice to see us UKIP voters read before we rant :p:D
 
Yea it could do, though either way Farage is a divisive person in politics, so I imagine there will be a high turnout in Thanet anyway.

I'm off to see Murray on his tour in Feb, will look forward to what he says about this :D
 
deuse said:
UKIP\Con government? I think so :)
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We don't have PR so that survey doesn't actually help figure out what sort of majority the winner would have and whether that particular coalition would be enough to form a majority government.
 
Narj said:
We don't have PR so that survey doesn't actually help figure out what sort of majority the winner would have and whether that particular coalition would be enough to form a majority government.
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Yup, plus (normal) people are generally very reluctant to admit that they are going to vote for the Conservatives until polling day. I'd expect their share of the vote to be at least 3% higher than polls predict come the election.
 
Narj said:
We don't have PR so that survey doesn't actually help figure out what sort of majority the winner would have and whether that particular coalition would be enough to form a majority government.
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True, you could get 40% of the votes and still get 0 seats because another party got 50% and beat you in every constituency.
 
I guess we're not going to know until the results are in on election day. But i'm predicting that Ukip and Libdems will end up with about 30 seats each
 
Narj said:
We don't have PR so that survey doesn't actually help figure out what sort of majority the winner would have and whether that particular coalition would be enough to form a majority government.
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Yeah, and if you were basing the Government makeup just from percentages on that poll you'd have Labour, SNP, Lib Dems + Greens in coalition and Cons + UKIP in opposition.
 
I know polls are normally inaccurate, but this one http://www.electionforecast.co.uk/ looks (or at least the description gives the impression) that there is some solid thinking behind it.

If so, UKIP won't hold the "balance of power" (thankfully) and Labour/SNP would only border on a majority. It's going to be a very interesting election this year.

Worst outcome would be 5 years of Tory/UKIP government, problem is I don't think there is a best outcome!
 
gobbo said:
Worst outcome would be 5 years of Tory/UKIP government, problem is I don't think there is a best outcome!
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I doubt that's even possible as UKIP are taking votes from the tories, they will only get a couple of seats themselves but ensure that the tories loose far more to Labour/Libdems.
 
Your average level of UKIP intelligence and logic!!



Farage is a hypocrite with zero integrity, what a great man !:rolleyes:



More lies and bigotry from the chinless scumbag !

 
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It's unlikely that UKIP will get enough votes to gain a significant number of MPs. However, it's one possiblity that ukip will split enough conservative votes to allow Labour back in (because of our voting system), but not without needing a coalition to form a government. Much like the Libdems, UKIP would sell their own mothers for a sniff of power and not give a damn who they were sharing power with.
 
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