Associate
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No, I personally bet on fixed matches quite a bit, but he doesn't.
Think of betting more like trading on a stock market. He doesn't sit there making ten fold accumulators all day.
Anyone earning 'big bucks' (£200k+ per year)? Would love to hear your story!
- Thread starter rubberduck
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No, I personally bet on fixed matches quite a bit, but he doesn't.
Think of betting more like trading on a stock market. He doesn't sit there making ten fold accumulators all day.
Soldato
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I know quite a few people in my place on well above 100k but as has been posted it is more like 80k basic, 40% share match, 40% bonus, 14% pension. They are not necessarily the greatest of intellects but are very good at simply making good decisions under intense pressure.
Even if you use a close to perfection probabilistic model, betting is a negative sum game due to the commission (just like the roulette). If the guy makes 400k and he tells people betting is the source, he probably deals drugs.
I know someone who does the same. Doesn't do ridiculous accumulators or anything, but will stick £30k on a single game to win £5k back, for example. Makes a killing every week.
Associate
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It is only a negative sum game if the odds are "correct". A lot of the time they aren't, even taking into account the commission. The difference between the odds and the probability of a team winning is often big. Most of his money comes from low level football where there are lots of misprices.
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The odds are never "correct" but they are close enough, definitely closer to the "correct" values than those calculated by a single person. The idea that a clueless 20 yearold can build a statistical model more efficient than those used in an industry worth billions is absurd. And if, by some miracle, this person were able to build such a model, he wouldn't go through the hassle of using it, he would put the system on the market, without fully revealing its inner workings and he would use other people's money (after proving its efficiency) to make millions instead of hundreds of thousands.
I think it's more likely that the person you know is a drug dealer rather than a potential Fields Medal winner..
It depends on what kind of betting you're doing. Betfair's betting exchange used to have some significant inefficiencies. It was possible to win money without even caring about the result of the match by doing a series of backs and lays.
No, not just like roulette. As kcon1 has mentioned, sports betting is different because there is a degree of subjectivity involved. Sports gamblers may analyse the market and find situations where the believe the bookmakers have priced an event at a level above what they believe the probability to be themselves. With roulette, this is impossible. Every single outcome is undeniably less likely to occur than the odds on offer, whereas with sports betting there may be small margins of variation leading to a point at which a gambler believes there is 'value' in a bet (in other words, the probability is not actually a known value). This is most likely in markets where there is a lack of statistical information upon which the bookmakers can create a good model
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But this relies on someone creating a statistical model that outperforms the models used by a multimillion dollar industry that have been developed and tuned by a larger team of professional mathematicians and staticians.
If one has that kind if ability then they stand to earn far more. Only from stock trading.
this thread is cringe worthy - but since it has moved onto gambling...
just because you can find an inefficiency in one market doesn't infer you are able to create a generic model to find inefficiencies or make predictions in all markets
if you want examples:
Bill Benter makes 8 figure sums betting on horse racing in Hong Kong - his paper containing a proposed model for horse racing is published in the book 'Efficiency Of Racetrack Betting Markets'
Zeljko Ranogajec - runs something akin to a betting hedge fund, albeit with his own cash
I mean if we're going to apply the argument that anyone with any form of edge could earn more by trading bigger, more liquid product then why is anyone trading stocks/equities even - why aren't they all trading say FX or the most liquid futures products?
just because you can find an inefficiency in one market doesn't infer you are able to create a generic model to find inefficiencies or make predictions in all markets
if you want examples:
Bill Benter makes 8 figure sums betting on horse racing in Hong Kong - his paper containing a proposed model for horse racing is published in the book 'Efficiency Of Racetrack Betting Markets'
Zeljko Ranogajec - runs something akin to a betting hedge fund, albeit with his own cash
I mean if we're going to apply the argument that anyone with any form of edge could earn more by trading bigger, more liquid product then why is anyone trading stocks/equities even - why aren't they all trading say FX or the most liquid futures products?
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He was going to close the deal with them anyway, but yes it's a bit wrong really. I suppose if someone offers it to you when you would have signed on the dotted line anyway then you aren't going to turn it down
I'd get the fountain pen out for that occasion.
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I would like to see you come up with a statistical model that can accurately price up Icelandic u19 women's football or Latvian youth games pre-game and in-play.
It doesn't matter how good your model is, the odds are controlled by the money being bet by punters, not on the probability of an outcome. Statistical models are only good for so much.
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And here lies the problem, the average middle earner paid a salary cannot do this so they cough more tax, whilst the rich skim their fair share to pay less and less :rolleeyes: hope Hmrc got some lube waiting for you!
Many have and rich is relative. The reality is the vast majority of people who do their own digging will never get close either.
Sounds like he's working as consultant/contractor though with his own ltd company (may be wrong though).
Surely high up managers at FTSE 100 companies who are earning hundreds of thousands or million+ would be paid via PAYE no? Or do they not tend to be salaried staff in the same way as most employees?
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Caporegime
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Agreed. Being paid a lot of money is a pretty small burden to bear when the person or company paying you that money happens to have or earn more than you do.
It's possible to do that on betfair but it's still just gambling though the odds can be in your favour. With a big enough float you'd probably be ok but it's fairly high risk. I made a few grand arbing after running out of free bet offers a few years ago but that soon dried up as I got banned or limited from most of the bookies I was comfortable depositing money with.