Not sure if troll or just stupid (you decide)

sven256 · 8 Apr 2015 at 22:20

estebanrey said:
But "the next person" also has a 1 in 6 chance they won't have to go at all because Holly might get the egg

Holly = 1 in 6 chance = 16.6666%
Next person = 5 in 6 times (Holly not getting the bad egg) 1 in 5 = 16.6666%

At each stage the next person has a higher chance of the getting the bad egg, but this is offset by the same magnitude due to the fact the person before might end the game before you even get a go.

They all have a 16.6666% chance at the start of the game, so going first is no advantage.

No, as the game resets each time.

godinman · 8 Apr 2015 at 22:20

I can't be bothered to watch the video but if they all chose eggs before cracking any then you are correct.

Pro tip for explaining things to people; don't be such a condescending twerp. Do it in a friendly manner without using your minor advantage in mathematics to pathetically try and enlarge your epeen.

Arsonist · 8 Apr 2015 at 22:22

You're arguing with people on the internet. Nobody is right.

Diddums · 8 Apr 2015 at 22:22

So, Holly or Fern? For me it's Holly all day long. Fern doesn't even factor in.

Remove Holly from the equation however...

estebanrey · 8 Apr 2015 at 22:23

spoffle said:
The OP's wrong, that's pretty clear I think. My point was that if they are playing it any other way, then they're not really playing it properly so I would have thought that it's safe to discount the possibility of them having played it different ways without having seen the video.

How am I wrong? Is it your claim that by choosing to go first you have a better chance of not losing than by going last? Really? Really?????

1st person = 1 in 6 (or 16.66666%)
2nd person = 5 in 6 times 1 in 5 (or 16.66666%)
3rd person = 5 in 6 times 4 in 5 times 1 in 4 (or 16.66666%)
4th person = 5 in 6 times 4 in 5 times 3 in 4 time 1 in 3 (or 16.66666%)

It doesn't matter whether you choose to go first or fourth, you have a 16.666% chance of getting the bad egg.

The mistake you are making is ignoring all the events that have to occur someone to get the bad egg. The person who goes second has a 1 in 5 chance they won't need to pick at all (a luxury the person who goes first doesn't have) which offsets the increased probability of them getting it with one less egg.

At the START of the game, they all have the same chance of losing regardless of whether they go first or last.

spoffle · 8 Apr 2015 at 22:23

godinman said:
I can't be bothered to watch the video but if they all chose eggs before cracking any then you are correct.

Pro tip for explaining things to people; don't be such a condescending twerp. Do it in a friendly manner without using your minor advantage in mathematics to pathetically try and enlarge your epeen.

But then he wouldn't be estebanrey.

estebanrey · 8 Apr 2015 at 22:25

spoffle said:
So when there are 2 eggs left, are you still suggesting that the chance is 16.666%?

I feel like you're misunderstanding on purpose.

We're talking about the START OF THE GAME not IF you get to a point with two eggs left (in which case no one loses because there are 6 eggs and only 4 people)

Are you misunderstanding on purpose?

SexyGreyFox · 8 Apr 2015 at 22:25

estebanrey said:
Next person = 5 in 6 times (Holly not getting the bad egg) 1 in 5 = 16.6666%

Please explain how 1 in 5 = 16.6666%

It always used to be 20% in my days.

geuben · 8 Apr 2015 at 22:27

estebanrey said:
But "the next person" also has a 1 in 6 chance they won't have to go at all because Holly might get the egg

Holly = 1 in 6 chance = 16.6666%
Next person = 5 in 6 times (Holly not getting the bad egg) 1 in 5 = 16.6666%

At each stage the next person has a higher chance of the getting the bad egg, but this is offset by the same magnitude due to the fact the person before might end the game before you even get a go.

They all have a 16.6666% chance at the start of the game, so going first is no advantage.

16.666% is the chance of a specific person getting the bad egg, before the game starts.

i.e The chances of Fern being the one who gets the bad egg is 16.666%

However the chances of Fern getting the bad on her own turn is only controlled by what eggs are actually in front of her right then. Given that the game stops if someone gets the bad egg we know that there is definitely 1 bad egg in the basket. The number of good eggs in the basket depends on how many people have gone before her. 1/X where X is the number of good eggs left.

G-MAN2004 · 8 Apr 2015 at 22:27

estebanrey said:
They all have a 16.6666% chance at the start of the game, so going first is no advantage.

You haven't told us if the first person cracks their egg before the rest of the people pick theirs...

If they all pick and then crack together, then you are right. If not, then after the first person has gone and discarded their hard boiled egg (if they indeed get one), the second person's chance of getting the bad one has now increased since there are now less eggs to choose from. How can it still be 16.6666%?

Edit: If you're talking solely about the start then meh.

estebanrey · 8 Apr 2015 at 22:27

geuben said:
No he's just stupid*

*his words, not mine!

How am I stupid, please explain with numbers why choosing to go first gives you an advantage of someone who goes fourth.

spoffle · 8 Apr 2015 at 22:27

estebanrey said:
We're talking about the START OF THE GAME not IF you get to a point with two eggs left (in which case no one loses because there are 6 eggs and only 4 people)

Are you misunderstanding on purpose?

I'm well aware, but the point that you seem to be struggling with is that she goes first, and she has the pick of 6 eggs, with only one being a "bad" one.

If she gets a "good" egg, then the next person's chances of getting a bad egg increase.

Curio · 8 Apr 2015 at 22:27

estebanrey said:
How am I wrong? Is it your claim that by choosing to go first you have a better chance of not losing than by going last? Really? Really?????

1st person = 1 in 6 (or 16.66666%)
2nd person = 5 in 6 times 1 in 5 (or 16.66666%)
3rd person = 5 in 6 times 4 in 5 times 1 in 4 (or 16.66666%)
4th person = 5 in 6 times 4 in 5 times 3 in 4 time 1 in 3 (or 16.66666%)

It doesn't matter whether you choose to go first or fourth, you have a 16.666% chance of getting the bad egg.

The mistake you are making is ignoring all the events that have to occur someone to get the bad egg. The person who goes second has a 1 in 5 chance they won't need to pick at all (a luxury the person who goes first doesn't have) which offsets the increased probability of them getting it with one less egg.

At the START of the game, they all have the same chance of losing regardless of whether they go first or last.

This makes sense to me.

EDIT: but then again I'm stoopid when it comes to maths....so who knows

estebanrey · 8 Apr 2015 at 22:28

Dimple said:
Please explain how 1 in 5 = 16.6666%

It always used to be 20% in my days.

Only if you explain why you ignored the 5 in 6 bit before it.

5/6 x 1/5 = 16.6666%

estebanrey · 8 Apr 2015 at 22:30

spoffle said:
I'm well aware, but the point that you seem to be struggling with is that she goes first, and she has the pick of 6 eggs, with only one being a "bad" one.

If she gets a "good" egg, then the next person's chances of getting a bad egg increase.

This is the thing, you say "if this happens" which has a probability value attached to it which affects the overall probability of the next go.

The question is whether going first is an advantage at the start of the game, it isn't.

By your logic I have a 1 in 45 chance of winning the lottery when I buy a ticket because IF I get the first 5 numbers I'll be in that position. Sure but that doesn't detract from the fact my chances of winning the lottery are 1 in 14 million at the time I buy the ticket.

spoffle · 8 Apr 2015 at 22:30

Because you're making it more complicated than it needs to be, and it seems you're doing it to give your ego a massage.

Each time someone has a go and gets a good egg, an egg is removed from the equation.

MikeTheNative · 8 Apr 2015 at 22:31

You do know that you've spent your own time having a pointless argument on YouTube? Whether he is a troll or not it seems like your have both lost.

estebanrey · 8 Apr 2015 at 22:35

spoffle said:
Because you're making it more complicated than it needs to be, and it seems you're doing it to give your ego a massage.

Each time someone has a go and gets a good egg, an egg is removed from the equation.

I'm aware of that, you are still ignoring that each person has a chance of getting the bad egg thus making the chance of latter people picking at all reduces.

Do you think, that in this game, before any eggs have been picked that Holly stands a better chance of not losing than the others, yes or no?

SexyGreyFox · 8 Apr 2015 at 22:36

Do you really believe what you're saying?

For your maths to work the 4 people choose from 6 eggs.
If Fern gets a hard boiled egg and then every body turns around and it is replaced by another hard boiled then the 3 people left are still choosing from 6 eggs.

However, if Fern gets a hard boiled there are 5 eggs left which is now a 20% chance of picking the bad one or an 80% chance of picking a good one.

The next person now has a 25% chance of picking a bad one or 75% chance of picking a good one

and so on.

Keyboards'Fear · 8 Apr 2015 at 22:38

It should be the chance they choose the bad egg (considering the way the game is played) that's when it increases. But (if) what OP is saying is that BEFORE the game starts they all have the same chance, then I agree with him.
But as soon as the first egg has been broken, then the rest of the players 'chances of getting the bad egg' before the game starts are thrown out and it becomes irrelevant.

If only one player was to choose then you'd be right, but since more will choose then after the first egg is broken the rest of the players chances change. The first player will still have the 'before the game starts' chance of getting it.

So I guess you're right and wrong..