Not sure if troll or just stupid (you decide)

bledd · 8 Apr 2015 at 22:49

G-MAN2004 said:
You haven't told us if the first person cracks their egg before the rest of the people pick theirs...

Ding ding ding.

This is the crucial missing piece information.

Without knowing this, it would be reckless to commit to an answer.

If they all pick one after another without the previous person cracking the egg on their head, then yes, it's 1/6.
If they're playing russian roulette, then the chance of danger increases each time.. 1/6, 1/5, 1/4, 1/3, 1/2, goodnight Irene

spoffle · 8 Apr 2015 at 22:51

Kenai said:
BUT choosing to go first or fourth are identical. You're ignoring the odds of not even getting to a fourth go.

Saying "I'll go first as the chances of getting a bad egg are less than if I went fourth" is incorrect, the odds are identical at the point in time at which you would make such a statement.

This is if you're basing it everyone taking an egg at the beginning, and that egg being the one that they use when it's their turn. As at that point the odds are set.

If you're basing it on picking an egg only when it's your turn, then it doesn't. Because the choice isn't fixed.

Kenai · 8 Apr 2015 at 22:52

spoffle said:
Nope, because you're twisting things to suit your argument. At the start, when the first move hasn't been decided they all have the same odds of getting the raw egg.

Going first DOES provide an advantage with regards to the progression of the game, as you have a 1/6 chance of getting the bad egg. They are simply the best odds you're going to get.

But you don't seem to be able to see that, you seem to be fixating on the very beginning using calculations that only apply if the person taking the first turn hasn't been decided.

It's not an advantage though, because saying 'I will go second' will garner you 1 in 5 odds of picking the bad egg, balance against 5 in 6 that they actually need to pick at all. Those combined are 16.7%, exactly the same odds as the person picking first, who has 1 in 6 odds of picking the bad egg balanced against 6 in 6 that they will actually need to pick.

estebanrey · 8 Apr 2015 at 22:52

bledd. said:
Ding ding ding.

This is the crucial missing piece information.

No it's not. We are analysing the statement that going first gives you a better chance of not losing. At that point in time, we don't have any information other than the number of good eggs, bad eggs and number of players.

Unless you have the ability to see the future you have no advantage to going first.

SexyGreyFox · 8 Apr 2015 at 22:52

Well if I sit around a table with 3 other people and a revolver with one bullet I will definitely be the first to pull the trigger.
Statistically pulling that trigger first gives me better odds of not killing myself and then gets worse for everybody after me.
And then we have the OPs world, if we all stare at the gun we all have the same odds.

elmarko · 8 Apr 2015 at 22:53

Person 1
1/6 chance of getting the egg.

Person 2
1/5 chance of getting the egg, but a 1/6 chance of not having to go.

Person 3
1/4 chance of getting the egg but a 2/6 chance of not having to go.

person 4
1/3 chance of getting the egg but a 3/6 chance of not having to go.

Person 5
1/2 chance of getting the egg but a 4/6 chance of not having to go.

Person 6
1 chance of getting the egg but a 5/6 chance of not having to go.

This kinda makes it the same which ever way you spin it, as person 6 also has a 5/6 chance of not having to go at all - the same as getting the egg for person 1.

Kenai · 8 Apr 2015 at 22:53

spoffle said:
This is if you're basing it everyone taking an egg at the beginning, and that egg being the one that they use when it's their turn. As at that point the odds are set.

If you're basing it on picking an egg only when it's your turn, then it doesn't. Because the choice isn't fixed.

No, that's not how it works, you can't just ignore the chance that someone picks before you when calculating your overall odds at the start of the game.

Yaayuh! · 8 Apr 2015 at 22:53

Rossi~ said:
OP, your maths doesn't appear to take into account the progression of the game. Or is that the point?
I'm confused.

I get it now I think.
We're getting mixed up with the difference of the odds between choosing to go 4th over 1st before turn has been taken vs odds when actually taking the 4th turn.

Whitewater · 8 Apr 2015 at 22:54

So who got the raw egg?

Kenai · 8 Apr 2015 at 22:54

Dimple said:
Well if I sit around a table with 3 other people and a revolver with one bullet I will definitely be the first to pull the trigger.
Statistically pulling that trigger first gives me better odds of not killing myself and then gets worse for everybody after me.
And then we have the OPs world, if we all stare at the gun we all have the same odds.

But if you said you wanted to go fourth, there is a 3 in 6 chance that someone else already bit the bullet and you never have to have a go at all.

estebanrey · 8 Apr 2015 at 22:54

Need a new thread, "Is Spoffle being Deliberately Obtuse or is he just mathematically illiterate?"

bluebeatle · 8 Apr 2015 at 22:55

I agree with the OP. The game is over the first time the bad egg is found. Can be turn one. Could be turn four. Although each pick has one less egg you have to account for the previous picks that had the chance of stopping the game.

spoffle · 8 Apr 2015 at 22:55

But with the OP fixating on the first go only, without giving context as to whether they all pick their egg at once, or take turns to pick, then it's simply about going first. In which case you have the best selection as there are 5 "good" eggs.

That being said, I think the OP is trolling as he hasn't given context yet, or even the name of the video.

geuben · 8 Apr 2015 at 22:56

elmarko said:
Person 1
1/6 chance of getting the egg.

Person 2
1/5 change of getting the egg, but a 1/6 change of not having to go.

Person 3
1/4 change of getting the egg but a 2/6 chance of not having to go.

person 4
1/3 change of getting the egg but a 3/6 change of not having to go.

Person 5
1/2 change of getting the egg but a 4/6 change of not having to go.

Person 6
1 chance of getting the egg but a 5/6 chance of not having to go.

This kinda makes it the same which ever way you spin it, as person 6 also has a 5/6 chance of not having to go at all - the same as getting the egg for person 1.

I was just trying to think of a way of explaining this.

There is a difference between the chances of not getting egg on your face and the chances of getting a good egg.

It depends on what Holly actually said.

bledd · 8 Apr 2015 at 22:56

estebanrey said:
No it's not. We are analysing the statement that going first gives you a better chance of not losing. At that point in time, we don't have any information other than the number of good eggs, bad eggs and number of players.

Unless you have the ability to see the future you have no advantage to going first.

I was still replying, check the rest of my response.

Skeeter · 8 Apr 2015 at 22:57

bledd. said:
Ding ding ding.

This is the crucial missing piece information.

Without knowing this, it would be reckless to commit to an answer.

If they all pick one after another without the previous person cracking the egg on their head, then yes, it's 1/6.
If they're playing russian roulette, then the chance of danger increases each time.. 1/6, 1/5, 1/4, 1/3, 1/2, goodnight Irene

Yep. All picking an egg at the same time is a very different game to each picking and cracking an egg in turn.

The elimination of an egg from the available choices before a player makes a choice is the game changer.

spoffle · 8 Apr 2015 at 22:58

Kenai said:
No, that's not how it works, you can't just ignore the chance that someone picks before you when calculating your overall odds at the start of the game.

Well he haven't been told how it works yet, have we? The OP seems strangely quiet on that front.

But as I said, the OP is fixating on the first go and because we don't know how the game is played (whether everyone picks at once, takes turns, or is randomly assigned an egg).

SexyGreyFox · 8 Apr 2015 at 22:58

Kenai said:
But if you said you wanted to go fourth, there is a 3 in 6 chance that someone else already bit the bullet and you never have to have a go at all.

Good point

elmarko · 8 Apr 2015 at 22:59

Skeeter said:
Yep. All picking an egg at the same time is a very different game to each picking and cracking an egg in turn.

The elimination of an egg from the available choices before a player makes a choice is the game changer.

By being last in Russian roulette with a six shooter you have a 5/6 chance of not having to play at all and a 1 chance of death.

The same as the first person who has a 1/6 chance of death. The game ends, it doesn't continue after somebody dies.

Picking the order makes no difference, but obviously as the game progresses the chance of each person changes (as certain eggs/bullets are eliminated) - but that statement is meaningless, as it's like saying - "If the person doesn't pick an egg, his chance to get an egg is 0%"

estebanrey · 8 Apr 2015 at 22:59

spoffle said:
But with the OP fixating on the first go only, without giving context as to whether they all pick their egg at once, or take turns to pick, then it's simply about going first. In which case you have the best selection as there are 5 "good" eggs.

That being said, I think the OP is trolling as he hasn't given context yet, or even the name of the video.

I'm fixated on who goes first because that is the bone of contention. No one is denying that if the 3rd person has to pick an egg at THAT POINT IN TIME their chance of getting the bad egg is higher than the people who went 1st and 2nd (who at that point in time have a 0% chance of losing).

I am simply questioning Holly's statement that going first provides her with an advantage. This is a decision that is made before any eggs are picked which is why I am only looking at that point in time and not hypotheticals later.

The name of the video is "Celebrity Juice Interview on The Jonathan Ross Show"