Not sure if troll or just stupid (you decide)

spoffle said:
But with the OP fixating on the first go only, without giving context as to whether they all pick their egg at once, or take turns to pick, then it's simply about going first. In which case you have the best selection as there are 5 "good" eggs.

That being said, I think the OP is trolling as he hasn't given context yet, or even the name of the video.
Click to expand...

The context is the statement 'if I go first, then I have a better chance'

IF you assume that the game will last all 6 turns, and the bad egg is last, this is true but also redundant as you pre determined the outcome.

However, if you are to assess your odds properly, the position you choose to go will confer no advantage to your chances of losing, as per the below.

First round
Chance of getting the egg - 1 in 6
Chance of having to pick - 6 in 6
Combined overall chance = 16.7%

Second round
Chance of getting the egg - 1 in 5
Chance of having to pick - 5 in 6
Combined overall chance = 16.7%

Third round
Chance of getting the egg - 1 in 4
Chance of having to pick - 4 in 6
Combined overall chance = 16.7%

Fourth round
Chance of getting the egg - 1 in 3
Chance of having to pick - 3 in 6
Combined overall chance = 16.7%

Fifth round
Chance of getting the egg - 1 in 2
Chance of having to pick - 2 in 6
Combined overall chance = 16.7%

Sixth round
Chance of getting the egg - 1 in 1
Chance of having to pick - 1 in 6
Combined overall chance = 16.7%

You can't ignore the chances associated with actually taking a turn.
 
They're taking turns to pick the eggs and crack them she can pick whichever one she wants, the eggs aren't replenished, she says "I'll go first because you've got a 1 in 6 chance haven't you?".

The OP is foaming at the mouth suggesting that she's an idiot for saying that, when the point is that she has the best odds of getting a "good" egg.
 
Kenai said:
The context is the statement 'if I go first, then I have a better chance'

IF you assume that the game will last all 6 turns, and the bad egg is last, this is true but also redundant as you pre determined the outcome.

However, if you are to assess your odds properly, the position you choose to go will confer no advantage to your chances of losing, as per the below.

First round
Chance of getting the egg - 1 in 6
Chance of having to pick - 6 in 6
Combined overall chance = 16.7%

Second round
Chance of getting the egg - 1 in 5
Chance of having to pick - 5 in 6
Combined overall chance = 16.7%

Third round
Chance of getting the egg - 1 in 4
Chance of having to pick - 4 in 6
Combined overall chance = 16.7%

Fourth round
Chance of getting the egg - 1 in 3
Chance of having to pick - 3 in 6
Combined overall chance = 16.7%

Fifth round
Chance of getting the egg - 1 in 2
Chance of having to pick - 2 in 6
Combined overall chance = 16.7%

Sixth round
Chance of getting the egg - 1 in 1
Chance of having to pick - 1 in 6
Combined overall chance = 16.7%

You can't ignore the chances associated with actually taking a turn.
Click to expand...

You can ignore it based on the OP's fixation of only the first go. The other moves are irrelevant to the OP in that instance.
 
spoffle said:
They're taking turns to pick the eggs and crack them she can pick whichever one she wants, the eggs aren't replenished, she says "I'll go first because you've got a 1 in 6 chance haven't you?".

The OP is foaming at the mouth suggesting that she's an idiot for saying that, when the point is that she has the best odds of getting a "good" egg.
Click to expand...

Her chance of picking the bad is 1 in 6, however her overall chance of picking the bad egg at any point during the game is 1 in 6 anyway, whether she goes first or not, due to counterbalance chance of not having to pick.
 
spoffle said:
They're taking turns to pick the eggs and crack them she can pick whichever one she wants, the eggs aren't replenished, she says "I'll go first because you've got a 1 in 6 chance haven't you?".

The OP is foaming at the mouth suggesting that she's an idiot for saying that, when the point is that she has the best odds of getting a "good" egg.
Click to expand...

No she doesn't, as better pointed out by Kenai...

Kenai said:
T
First round
Chance of getting the egg - 1 in 6
Chance of having to pick - 6 in 6
Combined overall chance = 16.7%

Second round
Chance of getting the egg - 1 in 5
Chance of having to pick - 5 in 6
Combined overall chance = 16.7%

Third round
Chance of getting the egg - 1 in 4
Chance of having to pick - 4 in 6
Combined overall chance = 16.7%

Fourth round
Chance of getting the egg - 1 in 3
Chance of having to pick - 3 in 6
Combined overall chance = 16.7%

Fifth round
Chance of getting the egg - 1 in 2
Chance of having to pick - 2 in 6
Combined overall chance = 16.7%

Sixth round
Chance of getting the egg - 1 in 1
Chance of having to pick - 1 in 6
Combined overall chance = 16.7%
Click to expand...

What she and you are missing is just because it is easier to see the maths of going first (1 in 6) it doesn't mean the end result is different to going second (5 in 6 multiplied by 1 in 5)
 
spoffle said:
You can ignore it based on the OP's fixation of only the first go. The other moves are irrelevant to the OP in that instance.
Click to expand...

It doesn't make a difference, there is no advantage to picking first, it doesn't improve your chances of not losing the game.
 
The pick order doesn't matter - you can select an egg at the start - or after each egg smash, if all are committed to picking one. When you select the egg makes no difference (as each person following the first has an equal chance of not having to go as the preceding one did of getting the egg).
 
Either situation. Picking an egg each at the beginning and doing all together or taking turns gives the same probability of getting the bad egg. Only the 2nd option draws out the tension for the people who may get to the latter stages. If it gets to a latter stage that is. If the game has turns you have to take them into account. Each round is not independent of the previous rounds.
 
Last edited:
Shame OP needed Kenai to explain what he meant in terms people with an understanding of maths could understand.
No wonder the chaps rage quit on him when he ascended to godhead while explaining in the OP.
Statistics are great.

i5xui5B.jpg
 
bluebeatle said:
Either situation. Picking an egg each at the beginning and doing all together or taking turns gives the same probability of getting the bad egg. Only the 2nd option draws out the tension for the people who may get to the latter stages. If it gets to a latter stage that is. If the game has turns you have to take them into account. Each found I not independent of the previous rounds.
Click to expand...
Indeed.

Doing it first is less stressful, that's the only reason really - as the feeling of building doom as you pick later for say Russian roulette would be very real. ;)
 
Spoffle reminds me of one of those people that is adamant keeping the same lottery numbers every week gives you a better chance of winning than someone who gets a lucky dip every week.

No matter how much you show them the actual maths, their inherent belief they can gain an advantage in a game of chance is something they are unwilling to drop.
 
spoffle said:
They're taking turns to pick the eggs and crack them she can pick whichever one she wants, the eggs aren't replenished, she says "I'll go first because you've got a 1 in 6 chance haven't you?".

The OP is foaming at the mouth suggesting that she's an idiot for saying that, when the point is that she has the best odds of getting a "good" egg.
Click to expand...
You're missing the point. It doesn't matter what Holly thinks. The mathematical reality is that they all have equal odds of losing the game.
 
estebanrey said:
Spoffle reminds me of one of those people that is adamant keeping the same lottery numbers every week gives you a better chance of winning than someone who gets a lucky dip every week.

No matter how much you show them the actual maths, their inherent belief they can gain an advantage in a game of chance is something they are unwilling to drop.
Click to expand...

What an utter bizarre thing to say. Firstly, I don't play the lottery, and secondly it isn't even comparable in terms of statistics.
 
The only scenario where an advantage would be gained by picking a particular position would be if 4 players and 6 eggs was continued and so picks 5 and 6 are effectively persons 1 and 2 taking a second go, in which case being third or fourth are the best options as you only have to risk one selection round :p
 
Jokester said:
You're missing the point. It doesn't matter what Holly thinks. The mathematical reality is that they all have equal odds of losing the game.
Click to expand...

It matters in as much as people asked what she said. That being said, again the OP is simply talking about the first go in isolation but didn't even give context with how each turn was taken.
 
spoffle said:
What an utter bizarre thing to say. Firstly, I don't play the lottery, and secondly it isn't even comparable in terms of statistics.
Click to expand...

Yes it is, the chances of winning the lottery are the same whether you keep the same numbers every week or if you change them every week. Yet there are a number of people who are utterly convinced keeping the same numbers gives them some kind of mathematical advantage, just as you think choosing to go first in this egg game gives you a better chance of not losing. In both, the chances are the same amongst the respective playing strategies.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom