Not sure if troll or just stupid (you decide)

Robosapien · 9 Apr 2015 at 22:49

BeatSpec said:
Have you been listening to anything we've been saying?

Nope. Don't follow the majority and think for yourself is what I say.

Admittedly didn't work out very well here, but the probability of not having to pick an egg once the bad egg is found wasn't immediately obvious from OP. Not watching video didn't help either.

Keyboards'Fear · 9 Apr 2015 at 22:52

@One But with one player less the chances change, that makes the 16.66% Invalid due to 1 less person involved? Meaning that the games 'chances' are completely different to what they were at first

Edit: I see where you're going with that. But doesn't it start becoming theoretical the way you describe it?

Edit #2: And the way you are describing it is if they all chose an egg before the game began, but that's not the case

Jono8 · 9 Apr 2015 at 22:55

StoutMeister said:

It has been everything i expected.

Robosapien · 9 Apr 2015 at 22:57

Participant said:
Face palm.

Or is that egg face palm.

No need to facepalm. What I've said is correct? It clearly isn't an equal 1/6 chance between all players unless this is offset by the probability of not having to pick at all.

Keyboards'Fear · 9 Apr 2015 at 22:59

If they all chose an egg before the egg smashing began, then it would all be true! But since it is a russian roulette style of gameplay, the rest of the players haven't had to choose yet, so saying what their chances are before they actually choose is like predicting the future.. Absolute rubbish (not your theory on the game, just predicting the future)

Jono8 · 9 Apr 2015 at 23:00

Keyboards'Fear said:
If they all chose an egg before the egg smashing began, then it would all be true! But since it is a russian roulette style of gameplay, the rest of the players haven't had to choose yet, so saying what their chances are before they actually choose is like predicting the future.. Absolute rubbish (not your theory on the game, just predicting the future)

Lol

Keyboards'Fear · 9 Apr 2015 at 23:01

This thread deserves 5 stars by the way people

DeltaUK · 9 Apr 2015 at 23:05

Keyboards'Fear said:
If they all chose an egg before the egg smashing began, then it would all be true! But since it is a russian roulette style of gameplay, the rest of the players haven't had to choose yet, so saying what their chances are before they actually choose is like predicting the future.. Absolute rubbish (not your theory on the game, just predicting the future)

best troll yet

Keyboards'Fear · 9 Apr 2015 at 23:06

glen8 said:
Can someone please tell me, if I walk into a house and go up a set of stairs, am I on the first floor or the second floor? btw, the house is moving down a runway, BODMAS has to be used in calculating the number of steps on the stairs, the car parked outside is in space 87 and the dinosaur living in the upstairs bedroom doesn't know he has blue eyes.

You're forgetting about the 14th century assassin brought to the current times through 84 wormholes just to stop you walking up the next set of stairs because you would divide by zero and destroy us all

Keyboards'Fear · 9 Apr 2015 at 23:07

DeltaUK said:
best troll yet

You're calling me a troll, to try and troll... 'Mind Blown'!!!!

tbyeah · 9 Apr 2015 at 23:13

Robosapien said:
No need to facepalm. What I've said is correct? It clearly isn't an equal 1/6 chance between all players unless this is offset by the probability of not having to pick at all.

It is offset, you can't just discount that probability.

One · 9 Apr 2015 at 23:14

Keyboards'Fear said:
If they all chose an egg before the egg smashing began, then it would all be true! But since it is a russian roulette style of gameplay, the rest of the players haven't had to choose yet, so saying what their chances are before they actually choose is like predicting the future.. Absolute rubbish (not your theory on the game, just predicting the future)

There's only 1 runny egg though: egg number 4.

Player A picks egg number 2
Player B picks egg number 4
Player C picks egg number 1
Player D picks egg number 6

They all smash them, Player B gets egg on his face. Now lets try exact same scenario again but they pick then smash.

Player A picks egg number 2, no egg on face
Player B picks egg number 4, egg on face
Player C laughs
Player D laughs.

The odds are the same because once you commit you're locked into the full game.

Anyway, it's been shown to work using simulation and maths so if you're still arguing then just stop it lol. Just don't bring up the goat problem where you have better odds if you swap door.

estebanrey · 9 Apr 2015 at 23:23

Here's another way of thinking about he problem for those who still don't understand why going first provides no advantage.

This game is principally the same as picking the short straw, a method used for hundreds of years to decide who does a 'negative thing'.

If it were true that going first gave you the best chance of not losing, don't you think that process would have been thrown out and never became a common way of fairly deciding a loser?

estebanrey · 9 Apr 2015 at 23:30

Keyboards'Fear said:
Edit #2: And the way you are describing it is if they all chose an egg before the game began, but that's not the case

Whether they pick eggs in turn (as in the video), pick eggs at the same time or have eggs allotted to them randomly it makes no difference to the odds of the first person revealing what they have.

Going first provides no advantage no matter how you switch around how the eggs are selected or revealed. The only way going first would change your odds would be if the first person goes again after the other 3 pick good eggs in which case (giving there are 6 eggs) going first or second would be the worst choice to make.

One · 9 Apr 2015 at 23:32

You essentially have two bets going on. One is a bet against the other players and one is a bet for yourself. If you go second but the first player didn't lose then you lost the bet against him but you might still win the bet for yourself. The odds are all equal, people just aren't look at the game as a whole event but instead looking at the individual actions ignoring previous events.

Drukk · 9 Apr 2015 at 23:32

One said:
Just don't bring up the goat problem where you have better odds if you swap door.

Now you have gone and done it! This thread will now never end and most likely take the whole of the internet down with it...................

dowie · 9 Apr 2015 at 23:34

Robosapien said:
The order of picking does make a difference; if you go first you are picking from a larger pool and have less chance of picking the bad egg, regardless of the anonymity of said egg.

If everyone then smashes eggs at the same time then there is a clear advantage to having picked first.

nope, makes no difference

However I concede that if they do take turns and the game stops once the bad egg is found, then this offsets any perceived advantage from picking order and overall chance is equal. I think I might even owe you an apology due to that Estebanray, I can't quite believe how wrong I was.

well you're part way towards getting it, but you need to have another think about that everyone smashing it at once scenario...

One · 9 Apr 2015 at 23:34

dowie · 9 Apr 2015 at 23:38

Keyboards'Fear said:
Has this thread not closed?

OP is right BEFORE the game starts they all have the same chance, but since it's Russian roulette style of gameplay ONLY the first player would abide by those chances. So her chance is as much as the rest considering AT THAT MOMENT it's split between 6 people. As soon as that first player has broken the egg though, the other players chances take a whole different pathway/calculations and meaning to what was first discussed, rendering the initial chances absolutely USELESS!!

nope, following through any possible path and all players have an overall chance of 1/6 of getting a raw egg, the players remaining in the game if it progresses then learn that they have a larger chance of being the holder of the raw egg but that is irrelevant really

Keyboards'Fear · 9 Apr 2015 at 23:41

estebanrey said:
Whether they pick eggs in turn (as in the video), pick eggs at the same time or have eggs allotted to them randomly it makes no difference to the odds of the first person revealing what they have.

Going first provides no advantage no matter how you switch around how the eggs are selected or revealed. The only way going first would change your odds would be if the first person goes again after the other 3 pick good eggs in which case (giving there are 6 eggs) going first or second would be the worst choice to make.

I completely agree with you there which is what this whole post is about, her being wrong as she is the first player so plays by the rules that at that moment they all have an equal chance, so yes you are most definitely right! So why we are discussing the rest of the players who would have completely different chances once she tried her egg, I don't know.. Actually I do know, GD

But honestly, to prove my point.. Say at the end you have 2 players left and 2 eggs. One has to be the bad one. So therefore it is IMPOSSIBLE for one of those players to have a 16.66% chance of getting the bad egg at THAT moment, as circumstances have changed (read my previous posts), because that is discussing RULES THAT ARE SET BEFORE THE GAME.

NVM, I'm out