Data source that lets humans play with economic policy...

mrthingyx

mrthingyx

mrthingyx

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Hi, there.

I have tried googling but can't find anything too simple that doesn't require at least a moderate amount of re-computation (I.e. Thematic PDFs from the ONS)...

I am looking for a data source that lets me play with the tax system, so I can flex the tax rate boundaries, tax allowance thresholds, etc. to see how doing so would impact the tax take. In a simplistic way, this would let me see what is the most economically effective method of increasing tax take that is either progressive or punitive or whatever.

Now I appreciate there are limitations to the applicability of such interpretations (tax avoidance schemes, etc.) but I think it would be a fun game to play.

Thanks for any help! :)
 
It's going to be have to be hugely complex due to the impact of numerous negative & positive externalities related to each change, changes in crime rate, investment, social mobility, reduction in welfare for certain groups etc. All of these have an associated cost or benefit which would need to be factored into the final calculation.

It would indeed be interesting if somebody did create a model for it.
 
Arthur Hucksake said:
The supposed brightest in Government have never got this right for the past 30 years, so good luck finding something. lol
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best and brightest in the government/civil service... Ok. ;)

If nobody has seen anything like this, I will have a toy myself based on ONS data... Just because people say "it is really complicated" doesn't mean it is, or that those assumptions have existed for so long they become fact. The financial crisis of 2008 wasn't actually that complicated but most people have made no attempt to understand it... Because it was apparently very complicated. ;)

There are a lot of assumptions that could be made, but it is a relatively simple question: how much to be people make in this country, and how much tax do they pay on it (before tax credits, etc.) start skewing the system.

I am genuinely curious because nobody would run a business without understanding cash flow against a business model, so I would have thought a country shouldn't, either...
 
it likely wouldn't be very reliable, you could perhaps get a backwards looking tool - what would have been raised over the past 5 years if we'd set these levels - but you could be making the assumption there that your changes had no other effect on the economy which isn't a reasonable assumption

anything forward looking is likely going to be very unreliable because not only do you not know the impact your changes may have on the economy you've also got a lot of uncertainty from external events you can't predict... you can maybe look at it on a basis of assuming the economy does X then...

I'd suspect that if someone were to build a tool you may find various assumptions built into the model that may well be biased towards their own views/ideology etc..
 
dowie said:
it likely wouldn't be very reliable, you could perhaps get a backwards looking tool - what would have been raised over the past 5 years if we'd set these levels - but you could be making the assumption there that your changes had no other effect on the economy which isn't a reasonable assumption

anything forward looking is likely going to be very unreliable because not only do you not know the impact your changes may have on the economy you've also got a lot of uncertainty from external events you can't predict... you can maybe look at it on a basis of assuming the economy does X then...

I'd suspect that if someone were to build a tool you may find various assumptions built into the model that may well be biased towards their own views/ideology etc..
Click to expand...

What he said.

My first job was developing business simulations for management training. For any model you have to make assumptions in order to specify and code the behaviour. The moment you make an assumption, the world will change and prove you wrong somewhere down the line :)

Economics is not an exact science, as summarised by the very old joke about asking two economists a question and you will get three answers.

EDIT: I remember reading a case study years ago of the Pinochet economy in Chile. It was the nearest thing economists would ever get to a real-world model to play with.
 
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It's difficult when you have to factor in War, social unrest etc

Also got to consider EU influence and changes. They could make a decision that could see big business pull out of a country and move elsewhere and such.

Good luck with this, be very interested in seeing a functional model.
 
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