Greece Elections

dowie said:
no they've been given artificially low interest rates and they've been allowed to restructure their debt - they were also supposed to make certain changes to spending - they elected an anti austerity party who decided they didn't want to play ball

what does the world bank have to do with this?
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And yet they have implemented the austerity the IMF called for, and the average Greek has suffered from it far more than in any other country in the eurozone. All this has done is push the Greek economy further into depression and prevent any growth they could have had that would have given them a shadow of a chance of ever paying back the IMF debt.
 
PermaBanned said:
And yet they have implemented the austerity the IMF called for, and the average Greek has suffered from it far more than in any other country in the eurozone. All this has done is push the Greek economy further into depression and prevent any growth they could have had that would have given them a shadow of a chance of ever paying back the IMF debt.
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they started to and it was going OK, they then elected a left wing government who decided to 'negotiate', stall, make lots of statements/threats and reverse some of that austerity...

I don't think there is really a third way here - they could have taken the bailout/stuck to the plan... bit of pain for several years - or they can crash out of the euro, lots of pain short term and after that lots of uncertainty - maybe it could work out OK for them, maybe it won't

the half way measures though of wanting the bailouts but not sticking to agreements or constantly trying to renegotiate terms, wanting more restructuring just isn't going to work - creditors can't and won't keep throwing money at them if they keep trying to move the goal posts, keep asking for funds/restructuring, refuse to cut certain spending...
 
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dowie said:
they started to and it was going OK, they then elected a left wing government who decided to 'negotiate', stall, make lots of statements/threats and reverse some of that austerity...

I don't think there is really a third way here - they could have taken the bailout/stuck to the plan... bit of pain for several years - or they can crash out of the euro, lots of pain short term and after that lots of uncertainty - maybe it could work out OK for them, maybe it won't

the half way measures though of wanting the bailouts but not sticking to agreements or constantly trying to renegotiate terms, wanting more restructuring just isn't going to work
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Don't know where you got this idea from but they absolutely have implemented the austerity measures called for by, well, Germany mainly. Syriza got elected as an anti-austerity party but they quickly made a U-turn on that policy and instead asked for some very reasonable concessions that might help them sell it to the Greek people and help their economy to grow.
 
PermaBanned said:
Don't know where you got this idea from but they absolutely have implemented the austerity measures called for by, well, Germany mainly. Syriza got elected as an anti-austerity party but they quickly made a U-turn on that policy and instead asked for some very reasonable concessions that might help them sell it to the Greek people and help their economy to grow.
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He agreed with you. The measures introduced, prior to Syriza being elected, were beginning to turn it around - with GDP increasing and unemployment falling.

Also, what were these "reasonable concessions" you speak of? Details please.

Nate
 
The current wave of austerity as proposed by Syriza involved significant VAT increases, cuts to pensions and higher rates of tax on high income individuals and businesses. Instead the IMF is calling for a tax reduction for businesses and even greater increases on unprogressive taxes like VAT and even greater cuts to pensions, so Syriza would have no hope of even trying to sell the idea that it managed to negotiate some of the concessions away from the poor. It's an absurd situation, it makes no economic sense if you want to see any growth in Greece for decades and it serves as a punishment for a vaguely left wing government daring to challenge the idea that austerity is effective.
 
PermaBanned said:
Don't know where you got this idea from but they absolutely have implemented the austerity measures called for by, well, Germany mainly. Syriza got elected as an anti-austerity party but they quickly made a U-turn on that policy and instead asked for some very reasonable concessions that might help them sell it to the Greek people and help their economy to grow.
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erm, yes Greece did implement austerity measures... this then got rather disrupted when the current govt got elected and decided to try and renegotiate everything - thus the current uncertainty and potential chaos
 
PermaBanned said:
It's an absurd situation, it makes no economic sense if you want to see any growth in Greece for decades and it serves as a punishment for a vaguely left wing government daring to challenge the idea that austerity is effective.
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not really, austerity was seemingly working right up until the elections, creditors are happy lending money if they're going to take certain steps - if they want to change that situation then their creditors might not be so confident about lending money
 
StriderX said:
And why did they get elected?
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because people don't like austerity

unfortunately you can't just pay for everything with magic beans so the alternative is to crash out of the euro - this might work out OK in the end or it might end in complete chaos and leave people thinking that retrospectively several years of austerity with relative stability might have been a better option
 
It's certainly not in the EU's interests for countries to think they will be off better if they leave, so I expect Greece to get royally shafted now.
 
dowie said:
because people don't like austerity

unfortunately you can't just pay for everything with magic beans so the alternative is to crash out of the euro - this might work out OK in the end or it might end in complete chaos and leave people thinking that retrospectively several years of austerity with relative stability might have been a better option
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What Greece is going through now could never be described as "relative stability". It's facing zero economic growth, high levels of unemployment, high levels of poverty, and the emigration of all of its skilled workers. If you think that's the sort of thing that leads to a quick recovery then you're going to be surprised.

You're right though, that is, essentially, the choice facing the Greek people. Stay in the Euro under constant pressure from unreasonably unmoving lenders or leave and face total uncertainty. It is a terrible decision that a country must make, but i commend Tsipras for trying to put it to a referendum although probably too late.

The strange thing is that i don't even think Germany or the ECB or anyone else really wants Greece to leave. The Euro was supposed to be a union for life, and Greek exit would have huge impacts on the rest of the Euro. Without that promise of stability and certainty a lot of investors are likely to be turned off.
 
Uther said:
It's certainly not in the EU's interests for countries to think they will be off better if they leave, so I expect Greece to get royally shafted now.
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Not shafted - just nobody will lend any more to them, as they no longer believe that they will get it back. The current run on ATMs mean that there absolutely must be a bank holiday on Monday at least. However their finance minister has said in the last few hours that there is no possibility of capital controls being introduced.

Utter utter madness.

Nate
 
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