ENHANCED RISK of THUNDERSTORMS for Sun 5th July from 10:00 until 22:00: ENGLAND, SCOTLAND & WALES. STORMS LOW CAPE, HIGH SHEAR & GENERALLY WELL ORGANISED. MAIN RISKS LIGHTNING, HEAVY RAIN, LOCALISED HAIL & GUSTY WINDS. VERY LOW RISK 2% OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
Air aloft cools on Sunday and under day-time heating lapse rates will steepen and heavy showers and thunderstorms will break out. Upper forcing from a strong jet profile will enhance wind shear and some of storms will become well organised multi-cell. CAPE is generally low limiting the risk of more severe aspects to convection, nevertheless isolated incidences of marginally severe thunderstorms is a possibility, especially across the Midlands/Lincs and across into North East England.
As is the nature with storms many places will remain dry and not experience storms.
Also during Sunday a plume will become engaged across the near continent moving up from France into the Benelux. The Western periphery of this plume is expected to bring excessive rainfall to many parts of East Anglia, The London area, Sussex and Kent. A few rumbles of thunder will be possible, with the risk of the very edge of the elevated plume skirting Sussex and Kent bringing more intense lightning possibilities.