I have a million £ and want to give you some of it....
- Thread starter estebanrey
- Start date
Me personally, i would, however it opens a can of worms as then I could be tempted by the £30k and chose #3.
It's the most money you could win when restricting your choices to those which give you more chance at winning than losing - but unless there is a mathematical use for the word which is escaping me, I don't think that necessarily makes it 'optimum'!
OcUK - where needless semantics over word use is serious business
Nah, I think you're just missing the point, it is the optimum choice in terms of £s full stop... no restrictions
It should be. Its a 99% chance afterall.
However having a prize in there with a guaranteed 100% chance of winning will skew peoples choices.
Op should have made it that your number had to be lower and not just equal.
Hence that would make a big difference to what people select. Once £10k is a 99% chance and £20k is a 98% I suspect most people will pick a number greater than 1.
By logic, on the basis it is set up nobody should pick anything other than 1.
Its always been a interesting dilemma this. You see it on gameshows on the tv when you can risk what you have one for a much bigger prize. My viewpoint is that you should go for the big prize as its likely this is your one and only chance of been on tv and you wont ever get the chance again. However even when the odds are 50/50 for doubling your money,. i can see why people choose to take the money and run. If the prize is more than double for 50/50 chance then you probably should go for the gamble.
So on the basis that even 1 can lose, I wonder what number people would go for? 2? cause its still 99% chance or 10 cause thats 90% chance of winning £100k?
I think you're getting confused, OP is going to pick at random - assume equal chance of any number...
How about this:
You can have £1million
Or
You can risk it for a 50:50 chance of £5million, with the risk of losing it all
What do you pick?
You'd have to be mad or rich to choose to gamble, even with the risky prize being 5 times more than the guaranteed, and at only a 50% chance of losing.
Well that just illustrates it better... technically you should gamble there if you're just looking at £s. But utility is different and for most people that 1million represents a huge change in their life alone... the extra 4 million on top would be nice too but that guaranteed one million is worth more to them. On the other hand if you're already a millionaire then you can take the bet.
Yeah which is why i said the guaranteed win in the OP will give skewed answers.
But in your example and say its for a game show, then the base amount of money you are risking becomes an issue. £1m is already a massive life changing amount. However, say you had already won £10k and had a 50/50 chance of winning £50k. That is probably a bet you should take.
My error, misread that part.
Soldato
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I'd really want to go for a high number, like 70+ but in the end i'd most likely settle for something relatively significant, but high probability.
So I'll say 15.
Anything above 25 and I'd think - I might as well go much higher. So 25-70 would be out of the question.
£150k though would get rid of my mortgage and give me plenty left over to invest. Basically a sum that would clear my bills, knowing we have good income already to take away any financial ties and then enough left that gives me a chance to make the same (or more) again through investment.
So I'll say 15.
Anything above 25 and I'd think - I might as well go much higher. So 25-70 would be out of the question.
£150k though would get rid of my mortgage and give me plenty left over to invest. Basically a sum that would clear my bills, knowing we have good income already to take away any financial ties and then enough left that gives me a chance to make the same (or more) again through investment.
Just as interesting as the amount people would go for is what they would do with it. Most seem to want to pay off a mortgage or buy a car. For me it would have to be as an investment to multiply the money. E g. Deposits for multiple BTL properties or starting a business. That's why I went for 40 earlier in the thread. The money alone is nice but unlikely to be life transforming at the lower end. However a larger amount could be used to massively gear the right investment.
Soldato
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20, would be enough for me by miles, and would set up exactly what I want. 
Where do people live where they can get a house + a car for £200k?!2 bed flats are around £230k where I live and I've seen them going for 45k above the asking price.
I'd go for 50.
Anywhere that isn't the south east.
Though it would only be a flat or an ex-council house around here.