The Microsoft acquisition of Nokia post-2015... epic fail or long-term benefits?

Richdog

Richdog

Richdog

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I was discussing this with a good friend of mine recently. There has been a lot in the media lately about how Microsoft have written off the $7+ billion dollars it spend on Nokia, and how it will lead to over 7'000 job losses for the mobile phone division.

The Verge http://www.theverge.com/2015/7/8/8913365/microsoft-lumia-windows-phones-strategy-2015

Computershopper http://www.computerworld.com/articl...-76b-admits-failure-of-nokia-acquisition.html

General googleness https://www.google.ch/search?q=micr...UTF-8#q=microsoft+nokia+acquisition+write+off

My good friend argue that 7 billion is pocket change for Microsoft, and that the patents they gained make everything worthwhile later down the line... but does that really matter if the mobile division is essentially folding... sorry, "reforming" into something which will become a niche market segment even more so than Windows Phone already was? Personally I can't see how this has much positive impact on Microsoft.

I'm interested to hear peoples thoughts on this. :)
 
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They didn't have much choice, and the direction they are going is also good. They aren't folding Lumia range, but they do absolutely need OEMs to make a heap of w10 phones. Which would never happen if they continued to spew out 8+ devices across the range.

You'll have to wait 2-3 years to say the outcome, if w10 mobile takes off and hits at least 10% then long term it was very much needed. If on the other hand we get to 3 years and it still below 10% then it's failed.
 
Nokia do not just make "Lumia", they also make a lot of "Dumb phones". The closure and lost of jobs does not equate to MS giving up on WP entirely. They are doing basic acquisition work, keep what fits their business direction and layoff the rest. It's been known that will happen when they buy it, that's why many Fins were grumpy about it.

Lumia brand sells majority of Windows Phones, buying it allows them control. MS wants to sell the software more than hardware, so now they are slowing it to make sure OEM have a chance to compete if they want to enter now. Satya Nadella have made it clear, if no OEM bites, then they will produce it all themselves.

The lines between PC / Tablet / Mobile are blurring fast, Laptop are getting smaller and phones are getting bigger. The idea of Windows 10 is a sound one, especially with continuum. Whether they manage to pull it off successfully is yet to be seen till Continuum is out and Windows 10 launch completes.

I am in agreement with Glaucus, the next 3 years is vital. If they don't break the 10% mark from the Mobile sector, then they're better off focusing on the blurred lines of PC and Mobile, from their Surface / Tablet sector rather than from Mobile sector.
 
Glaucus said:
You'll have to wait 2-3 years to say the outcome
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Has this been the story since Windows Phone 7.

I mean you only get some many times to start over/mess things up. I hope I'm wrong but I don't see Windows on Mobile having any future tbh. There is reasons OEMs like Android, they can change it and do whatever they want, even before Nokia was onboard with WP no one cared, OEMs have been blaming MSFT for Windows on desktop for years the relationship just seems broking.
 
No, wp7 wasn't even windows phone based on desktop OS. It was a skinned version of windows mobile to keep them ticking over till wp8.. Nokia have been in it and by vast majority the supplier since start of wp8. Leaving no room for OEMs even if they wanted in.

The decider will be if what they have done with w10 gets app support. If w10 takes off on desktops and people use apps in desktops then it's likely to succeed, as if you make a desktop app, you might as well make a phone app. It realy is down to app gap.
 
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I meant its always a year or 2 from taking off, or the next thing will really nail it. Also I don't buy this room thing everyone keeps saying. Nokia hasn't had a highend phone since 2013, and outside of HTC cloning the M8 no one has even tried, if your talking about having space how does having the only flagship WP with a S810 and so on.

Also If people stay in the desktop for W10 then they won't really need metro apps, they have the web and all their normal apps, I don't think people are really used too using an app store to download apps either, everyone I see still google for an app e.g Want skype, google skype and download it.

What worries me more is all this focus suddenly on porting Apps. The Android Apps are going to run on a VM, Google itself is finally dumping that cause its horrible, or iOS apps that are running on MSFT hacked APIs that they back ported. It just seems like they are asking for problems. Imagine if Apple changes some things in iOS9 to work differently, once iOS9 is out all the iOS ports stop working on WP.

I think MSFT has to focus on mobile, their new Office suite of Apps on W10 is great, much better then it is on OSX, however on mobile they have better apps on Android/iOS. Its tough but I would just say **** everyone else, if you want the best MSFT services get on our platform.
 
There was never space due to Nokia. Now they are doing one high end, one low end and one enterprise. With small or large screen. Opening up space for OEMS if which a fair few have already signed up to build for w10.

The 930 is only Kist over a year old. For most countries, July 2014, didn't make sense to realise a high end in July 2015 with w10 so close.

If apple upgrade ios, it won't break ports, they are already ported. The developer might have to rework things a bit with the new port.

App store is fat more prominent on w10. As well as things like mail app. They have a much bigger chance to stylise the app store than they did on w10, especially as they seem certain to fill the criteria, off getting huge numbers onto w10 quickly.

They have no option but to go this way, without closing the app gap and gaining market share they will eventually cancel it, which would be massively detrimental to them. They can afford to lose money but they aren't going to do it forever. At some point it has to pay for itself.
 
Oh forgot about the 930, so we have had 1 year which means someone could have released something this year, but I guess there all waiting too see how Windows 10 turns out.

iOS thing I meant if apple changes something, someone updates their app they can't port again unless MSFT has changed, or they need to put in work. It starts too not be so easy and I think it might be more of a pain.

The way I see it smaller Apps shops like too focus on quality, they why you see a lot of indies just have iOS apps cause they understand and enjoy it. Its difficult for them to make a solid app for a platform they don't use much like Android, but they do if there is demand. I don't expect these guys too port.

Bigger companies I think might rush at the chance too start off with, but if they start having issues it could just be forgotten and then die out.

I would personally rather they just focused on making their own app stuff better, it has been a bit shakey, going from hacky silver light too a really development system, but its a worth while investment.

W10 apps Im still uncertain about. I've been using the OS for awhile, and outside of the default apps I've just gotten everything from the web, I've never been prompted too go too the App store, and had forgotten about it all together. As an OS I like it, it seems MSFT has finally come to sense, with W8 I had to actual google how to turn off a PC, I remember at first my aunt called and I just lol'd at her thinking god damnit but I just couldn't figure it out.

Finally, I think its less about app gap, and just getting the newest thing, iOS has 1.5million apps, maybe 1000 of them actual matters, no one needs 500k fart apps. But when the new hot thing is periscope and its out on Android and iOS but not WP, then a user that has friends on those platforms will feel left out.

Android really got lucky, lucky that MSFT slipped and got cocky. If MSFT actual took the iPhone seriously and changed directions they would be Android today, too huge to ignore.
 
No one needs that many apps, but a lot of people do need the big ones, which wp doesn't have, or wont use third party which is even more missing big ones. For those people it's a no go.
For others they've been scared off and if they look at what's about most apps they want could well be there.

But apps are very important, not the sheer amount. but you heed all the big players and wp is missing a lot if those.
 
Glaucus said:
They didn't have much choice, and the direction they are going is also good. They aren't folding Lumia range, but they do absolutely need OEMs to make a heap of w10 phones. Which would never happen if they continued to spew out 8+ devices across the range.

You'll have to wait 2-3 years to say the outcome, if w10 mobile takes off and hits at least 10% then long term it was very much needed. If on the other hand we get to 3 years and it still below 10% then it's failed.
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Do you mean 10% of the over all mobile market in 3 years? That's crazy there's no way they will do that, they'd need a miracle and a really good product.
 
Calabi said:
Do you mean 10% of the over all mobile market in 3 years? That's crazy there's no way they will do that, they'd need a miracle and a really good product.
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Yes.

Currently they're about 3% overall. Some European markets they're over 10%, it's china and USA they really need to crack. Largest Chinese phone supplier has signed upto make wp10, so hopefully that might improve their almost 0% Chinese market.
 
MS charging a steep license for a subpar OS in the early days whilst owning a the biggest brand in the game was an... interesting decision. Who'd want to even bother trying when Android is free and everyone likes it?
Android really got lucky, lucky that MSFT slipped and got cocky. If MSFT actual took the iPhone seriously and changed directions they would be Android today, too huge to ignore.
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To downplay Androids success as lucky is a bit cheeky considering they are the top game in town by device coverage in nearly every country which is ultimately the goal of Google as an aside to making a decent OS for it's own reasons.

Nokias licensing agreement is 10yrs with an option for perp and their agreement with qualcomm which is a nice to have but a whole ton of Nokia's good stuff was radio and power related, these are either FRAND type affairs or through the qualcomm agreement so eh, nice but nothing amazing.

My biggest disappointment is the low end. Nokia staff were always great to work with and the best in the business when it came to shipping to the masses. Todays vendors are only where they are in the backend (supply chain, repairs, distribution) because they copied Nokia in my completely biased opinion of their history.
 
Myshra said:
To downplay Androids success as lucky is a bit cheeky considering they are the top game in town by device coverage in nearly every country which is ultimately the goal of Google as an aside to making a decent OS for it's own reasons.
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Its true thou, I'm a huge Android fan so its not a troll or anything but if you look at how things where when the G1 was released it was BB with big market share, iOS as the hot new thing, and WinMobile as everything else, HTC, Motorola, Samsung. Its not only luck, but I think if MSFT had there game on point it would have been so much harder, instead Android had no one to compete with, hey don't want iPhone this is your only other choice.

What happened was Android/Google was saw the iPhone was just years ahead of everything else, quickly changed course and released a touch first OS. It was ugly, and had a lot of problems but it was so much better then BB/Win Mobile at the time. Blamer just laughed the iPhone off, it doesn't have a keyboard lol. Imagine if MSFT instead of being stuck up thinking they where kings and actual had Windows Phone 7 out when Android was out. Why would Samsung, HTC, Motorola jump ship when Windows already has more sells and so on.

For a long time MSFT was top dog in tech, thats it, no one was even close. Now Samsung and Apple both make a lot more, and this is Mobile, MSFT dropped the ball in a huge way.

Same with BB, had no idea what was going on in the market and where are they now, from basically having one of the first ever smartphones out in the market to nothing.
 
I don't know what would make me but a Windows phone

Less choice of phone
LLess apps
I personally hate the ui sharp squares

Also android and ios have got momentum
You've paid for the apps and have an easy upgrade life
All this is lost switching
I'm guessing some people have 100s of pounds of apps

Not only would these phones and os need to be better, but they would have to be a lot better.
To be honest I don't think anything would make me switch that's realistically going to happen

It would have to be a revolutionary step. A phone that was like the iPhone 1 when it came out
 
If it all ties in with WIn 10 and Cointuim is everything they have shown it would be a big break through.
Also, they have been behind but they could have one big advantage is seeing where the market is going now, and being able to have the right dev tools coming in place to let them drag and drop Droid and iOS apps to work in Win10.
 
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