Alex Salmond: A second Scottish referendum is inevitible

[BuffetSlayer]

Go on then. Put your money where you mouth is! I have already made a post with the results of multiple polls carried out since the referendum showing YES support around the 50% mark. Certainly not falling like you are suggesting.

So go on then show me at least 5 polls proving me wrong.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.n...s3/YG-trackers-Scottish-Referendum-150501.pdf

Theres a tabulated result of 4 since the start of this year showing, as I said, a slow decrease (using the Yes/No excluding those who don't know columns because lets face it, they could go either way and only actual yes/no answers are really important based on the question asked).

I really can't be bothered to go trawling the internet for more, but I am sure I could find more (for example http://www.panelbase.com/media/polls/W7181stn.pdf which puts yes at 45% and no at 50% from 26 June - 3 July 2015)

Taking those polls on face value that equates to

52, 49, 48, 47, 45 % for yes from January 2015 - July 2015

Yougov has results for september 2015 that puts the yes camp down to 43%

http://whatscotlandthinks.org/quest...["3a7d4171-9059-4c0e-9496-a1c600c4a9ed"]#line

I don't think it means a lot, and I am sure you will have some argument as to why what I have provided is unsuitable. However I have now seen 6 polls, all from this year that shows the yes voters in slow decline.

Does that mean yes voters would lose another referendum? No. No more so than it meant the polls held leading up to the referendum meant they would win.

IE, polls are a bit pointless.

Now we have cleared that up, would you like to address/respond to my other points from post #1706 , #1709 and #1730 now?

 

[lovelyhead]

Every poll for the two months before the referendum underestimated the lead that No had over Yes and this has continued ever since. You're intentionally misinterpreting the data because you know if you correct for undecideds the polls consistently exaggerate Yes support.

I don't blame you though, you're in far too deep to admit you're wrong now.

For example, here's some analysis from 11/09/14 with the averaged polls showing Yes/No at 49/51. But I'm sure a professor of politics at one of Scotland's leading universities isn't doing it properly, right?

http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/09/poll-polls-11-september-updated/

Ah yes, John Curtis the only living Psephologist in Scotland!

I see you are changing your argument from the polls overestimating the YES side to the polls underestimating the NO side.

The YES side predictions were fairly accurate and the NO side were underestimated slightly. It seems most of the undecided voters went NO.

That is not what you were arguing originally though.

 

[Elixir]

I see you are changing your argument from the polls overestimating the YES side to the polls underestimating the NO side.

Is this intentional? You don't think these are the same thing?

If the Yes side is overestimated, the No side is underestimated, and vice versa. There are ultimately only two choices. You can't just throw all the undecideds into No and say "look, accurate poll!"

Polls were shown to be inaccurate at the time of the referendum and they are still inaccurate now.

 

[Woden]

Ah yes, John Curtis the only living Psephologist in Scotland!

I see you are changing your argument from the polls overestimating the YES side to the polls underestimating the NO side.

The YES side predictions were fairly accurate and the NO side were underestimated slightly. It seems most of the undecided voters went NO.

That is not what you were arguing originally though.

Do you even maths?

 

[grumpysculler]

Do you even maths?

The oppressive regime of mathematics will be abolished in an independent Scotland.

In the white paper there were some income streams that were getting spent multiple times so clearly we need our own version of Alba maths. It will be Gaelic too because although there are no monolingual Gaelic speakers left (everyone who speaks Gaelic is also fluent in English) it helps distinguish us from rUK.

 

[Woden]

To be fair, I am English unionist and think all Scottish schools should be teaching Gaelic

 

[lovelyhead]

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.n...s3/YG-trackers-Scottish-Referendum-150501.pdf

Theres a tabulated result of 4 since the start of this year showing, as I said, a slow decrease (using the Yes/No excluding those who don't know columns because lets face it, they could go either way and only actual yes/no answers are really important based on the question asked).

I really can't be bothered to go trawling the internet for more, but I am sure I could find more (for example http://www.panelbase.com/media/polls/W7181stn.pdf which puts yes at 45% and no at 50% from 26 June - 3 July 2015)

Taking those polls on face value that equates to

52, 49, 48, 47, 45 % for yes from January 2015 - July 2015

Yougov has results for september 2015 that puts the yes camp down to 43%

http://whatscotlandthinks.org/quest...["3a7d4171-9059-4c0e-9496-a1c600c4a9ed"]#line

I don't think it means a lot, and I am sure you will have some argument as to why what I have provided is unsuitable. However I have now seen 6 polls, all from this year that shows the yes voters in slow decline.

Does that mean yes voters would lose another referendum? No. No more so than it meant the polls held leading up to the referendum meant they would win.

IE, polls are a bit pointless.

Now we have cleared that up, would you like to address/respond to my other points from post #1706 , #1709 and #1730 now?

You wish you had cleared that up!

You are going to have to do better than cherry picked YouGov polls and a single Panalbase poll. But don't worry, I have saved you the effort! You can thank me later!

Here is every poll I could find since the start of 2015 asking the Scottish Independence referendum question:

MONDAY, FEBRUARY 2, 2015

http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2015/02/snp-power-to-record-21-lead-in-jaw.html

Yes 52%
No 48%

FRIDAY, MARCH 13, 2015

http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2015/03/update-about-yougov-poll-big.html

Yes 49%
No 51%


THURSDAY, MARCH 19, 2015

http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2015/03/snp-surge-to-21-lead-in-super-second.html

Yes 50.9%
No 49.1%


WEDNESDAY, MARCH 25, 2015

http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2015/03/aye-aye-icm-holyrood-poll-sees-snp.html

Yes 46%
No 54%

MONDAY, APRIL 6, 2015

http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2015/04/snp-lead-by-commanding-17-in-deeply.html

Yes 49%
No 51%

SUNDAY, APRIL 26, 2015

http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2015/04/pivotal-panelbase-poll-pushes-snp-to.html

Yes 49%
No 51%

SATURDAY, MAY 2, 2015

http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2015/05/daily-record-caught-misleading-its.html

Yes 49.4%
No 50.6%

SUNDAY, MAY 3, 2015

http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2015/05/yougov-poll-54-of-voters-anticipate.html

Yes 47%
No 53%

SUNDAY, MAY 10, 2015

http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2015/05/yougov-poll-finds-big-increase-in.html

YES: 52%
NO: 43%

WEDNESDAY, MAY 27, 2015

http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2015/05/yougov-poll-hints-at-further-movement.html

YES: 47%
NO: 53%


SUNDAY, JULY 5, 2015

http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2015/07/portentous-panelbase-poll-puts-support.html

Yes 47%
No 53%

TUESDAY, JULY 7, 2015

http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2015/07/panelbase-datasets-confirm-genuine.html

Yes 47.5%
No 52.5%

TUESDAY, JULY 14, 2015

http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2015/07/surveying-survation-survey-thats-seen.html

Yes 48.2%
No 51.8%

WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 2, 2015

http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2015/09/game-changing-ipsos-mori-poll-suggests.html

Yes 53%
No 44%

WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 9, 2015

http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2015/09/earthquake-as-tns-agrees-with-ipsos.html

Yes 53%
No 47%

SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 12, 2015

http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2015/09/yougov-poll-shows-statistical-tie-on.html

Yes 48%
No 52%

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 13, 2015

http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2015/09/panoramic-panelbase-poll-produces.html

Yes 47%
No 53%

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 14, 2015

http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2015/09/stirring-survation-survey-suggests.html

Yes 49.3%
No 50.7%


So here are the YES percentages in order of date:

52, 49, 50.9, 46, 49, 49, 49.4, 47, 52, 47, 47, 47.5, 48.2, 53, 53, 48, 47, 49.3

I am no math genius but to me that does not look like a decline. I think the very worst you could say about those numbers is that they are holding steady.

The average percentage of all those figures is 49.12%. So, like I have been saying YES and NO are neck and neck in the polls. If YES get the same increase next year as we have had this year then it could be squeaky bum time for the unionists!

 

[lovelyhead]

Do you even maths?

Yes Sir I maths!

 

[Elixir]

That's odd, now you appear to be excluding undecideds! Whatever fits right?

 

[Tefal]

You wish you had cleared that up!

You are going to have to do better than cherry picked YouGov polls and a single Panalbase poll. But don't worry, I have saved you the effort! You can thank me later!

Here is every poll I could find since the start of 2015 asking the Scottish Independence referendum question:

MONDAY, FEBRUARY 2, 2015

http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2015/02/snp-power-to-record-21-lead-in-jaw.html

Yes 52%
No 48%

FRIDAY, MARCH 13, 2015

http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2015/03/update-about-yougov-poll-big.html

Yes 49%
No 51%


THURSDAY, MARCH 19, 2015

http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2015/03/snp-surge-to-21-lead-in-super-second.html

Yes 50.9%
No 49.1%


WEDNESDAY, MARCH 25, 2015

http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2015/03/aye-aye-icm-holyrood-poll-sees-snp.html

Yes 46%
No 54%

MONDAY, APRIL 6, 2015

http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2015/04/snp-lead-by-commanding-17-in-deeply.html

Yes 49%
No 51%

SUNDAY, APRIL 26, 2015

http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2015/04/pivotal-panelbase-poll-pushes-snp-to.html

Yes 49%
No 51%

SATURDAY, MAY 2, 2015

http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2015/05/daily-record-caught-misleading-its.html

Yes 49.4%
No 50.6%

SUNDAY, MAY 3, 2015

http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2015/05/yougov-poll-54-of-voters-anticipate.html

Yes 47%
No 53%

SUNDAY, MAY 10, 2015

http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2015/05/yougov-poll-finds-big-increase-in.html

YES: 52%
NO: 43%

WEDNESDAY, MAY 27, 2015

http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2015/05/yougov-poll-hints-at-further-movement.html

YES: 47%
NO: 53%


SUNDAY, JULY 5, 2015

http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2015/07/portentous-panelbase-poll-puts-support.html

Yes 47%
No 53%

TUESDAY, JULY 7, 2015

http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2015/07/panelbase-datasets-confirm-genuine.html

Yes 47.5%
No 52.5%

TUESDAY, JULY 14, 2015

http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2015/07/surveying-survation-survey-thats-seen.html

Yes 48.2%
No 51.8%

WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 2, 2015

http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2015/09/game-changing-ipsos-mori-poll-suggests.html

Yes 53%
No 44%

WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 9, 2015

http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2015/09/earthquake-as-tns-agrees-with-ipsos.html

Yes 53%
No 47%

SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 12, 2015

http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2015/09/yougov-poll-shows-statistical-tie-on.html

Yes 48%
No 52%

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 13, 2015

http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2015/09/panoramic-panelbase-poll-produces.html

Yes 47%
No 53%

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 14, 2015

http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2015/09/stirring-survation-survey-suggests.html

Yes 49.3%
No 50.7%


So here are the YES percentages in order of date:

52, 49, 50.9, 46, 49, 49, 49.4, 47, 52, 47, 47, 47.5, 48.2, 53, 53, 48, 47, 49.3

I am no math genius but to me that does not look like a decline. I think the very worst you could say about those numbers is that they are holding steady.

The average percentage of all those figures is 49.12%. So, like I have been saying YES and NO are neck and neck in the polls. If YES get the same increase next year as we have had this year then it could be squeaky bum time for the unionists!

you missed the result of one poll



37%

 

[lovelyhead]

That's odd, now you appear to be excluding undecideds! Whatever fits right?

Oh and which way did undecideds vote in the polls?

you missed the result of one poll



37%

And which poll was that? And before you say the referendum the result was 45%.

 

[BuffetSlayer]

Spoiler

You wish you had cleared that up!

You are going to have to do better than cherry picked YouGov polls and a single Panalbase poll. But don't worry, I have saved you the effort! You can thank me later!

Here is every poll I could find since the start of 2015 asking the Scottish Independence referendum question:

MONDAY, FEBRUARY 2, 2015

http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2015/02/snp-power-to-record-21-lead-in-jaw.html

Yes 52%
No 48%

FRIDAY, MARCH 13, 2015

http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2015/03/update-about-yougov-poll-big.html

Yes 49%
No 51%


THURSDAY, MARCH 19, 2015

http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2015/03/snp-surge-to-21-lead-in-super-second.html

Yes 50.9%
No 49.1%


WEDNESDAY, MARCH 25, 2015

http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2015/03/aye-aye-icm-holyrood-poll-sees-snp.html

Yes 46%
No 54%

MONDAY, APRIL 6, 2015

http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2015/04/snp-lead-by-commanding-17-in-deeply.html

Yes 49%
No 51%

SUNDAY, APRIL 26, 2015

http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2015/04/pivotal-panelbase-poll-pushes-snp-to.html

Yes 49%
No 51%

SATURDAY, MAY 2, 2015

http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2015/05/daily-record-caught-misleading-its.html

Yes 49.4%
No 50.6%

SUNDAY, MAY 3, 2015

http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2015/05/yougov-poll-54-of-voters-anticipate.html

Yes 47%
No 53%

SUNDAY, MAY 10, 2015

http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2015/05/yougov-poll-finds-big-increase-in.html

YES: 52%
NO: 43%

WEDNESDAY, MAY 27, 2015

http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2015/05/yougov-poll-hints-at-further-movement.html

YES: 47%
NO: 53%


SUNDAY, JULY 5, 2015

http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2015/07/portentous-panelbase-poll-puts-support.html

Yes 47%
No 53%

TUESDAY, JULY 7, 2015

http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2015/07/panelbase-datasets-confirm-genuine.html

Yes 47.5%
No 52.5%

TUESDAY, JULY 14, 2015

http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2015/07/surveying-survation-survey-thats-seen.html

Yes 48.2%
No 51.8%

WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 2, 2015

http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2015/09/game-changing-ipsos-mori-poll-suggests.html

Yes 53%
No 44%

WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 9, 2015

http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2015/09/earthquake-as-tns-agrees-with-ipsos.html

Yes 53%
No 47%

SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 12, 2015

http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2015/09/yougov-poll-shows-statistical-tie-on.html

Yes 48%
No 52%

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 13, 2015

http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2015/09/panoramic-panelbase-poll-produces.html

Yes 47%
No 53%

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 14, 2015

http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2015/09/stirring-survation-survey-suggests.html

Yes 49.3%
No 50.7%


So here are the YES percentages in order of date:

52, 49, 50.9, 46, 49, 49, 49.4, 47, 52, 47, 47, 47.5, 48.2, 53, 53, 48, 47, 49.3

I am no math genius but to me that does not look like a decline. I think the very worst you could say about those numbers is that they are holding steady.

The average percentage of all those figures is 49.12%. So, like I have been saying YES and NO are neck and neck in the polls. If YES get the same increase next year as we have had this year then it could be squeaky bum time for the unionists!

I think you are missing the point. You asked me to find 5 polls showing slow decline of yes voters and I found 6. I also linked to original sources not some blog spot that cherry picks the data to support an agenda (pot, kettle, black )

Which brings me to the point that went over your head. As I said, you can find polls to support any arguments. You cite something like eighteen. Eighteen that do not show progressive growth in support for the yes campaign (and also 18 out of how many polls out there?). Indeed the percentages are up and down like a yo yo. So can you link me to 5-6 polls (original source not a blog site) that show consistent growth in yes voters from January 2015-September 2015? (IE no drops in % support at all and no repeat % results in consecutive months).

Whether you agree with the polls I found or not, though, is just as relevant as whether I agree with yours or not (hint not very much). I also think if you have based your entire discussion on polls about an independence referendum you are missing the bigger picture and are, intentionally or not, glossing over the cracks in the pro independence plans.

I notice you still insist on side stepping the finer points of my other posts too. one could be forgiven for thinking you were avoiding responding on purpose.

 

[lovelyhead]

Nothing is ever good enough for you unionists is it. I provide 18 (!) independent polls and you are still making excuses as to why they aren't right!

You call me pathetic and a zealot yet you deny the evidence even when it is served up to you on a silver platter!

You guys have issues!

 

[Elixir]

You are going to have to do better than cherry picked YouGov polls and a single Panalbase poll. But don't worry, I have saved you the effort! You can thank me later!

Here is every poll reported on pro-independence blog ScotGoesPop since the start of 2015 asking the Scottish Independence referendum question:

List of cherry picked polls

Fixed for clarity. To be fair, you probably see that as an unbiased source so you're blissfully unaware that it has already done the cherry picking for you.

I've also done you the favour of removing undecideds from your list of "accurate" pre-referendum polls so they're comparable to recent results, you can find it here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aMAa5RNVK-w9Y1knniO-Vz_9kVKsJwFv3vKdKudIXVg

Yes 48%, No 52%. Neck and neck! And when applying the lovelyhead weighting formula of removing any results with Yes not above 48%, it changes to Yes 49%, No 51%!

 

[Tefal]

And which poll was that? And before you say the referendum the result was 45%.

i thought were excluding undecideds now?

which in the referendum would be those that didnt vote so

37%

purely by your way of doing statistics of course

 

[lovelyhead]

I think you are missing the point. You asked me to find 5 polls showing slow decline of yes voters and I found 6. I also linked to original sources not some blog spot that cherry picks the data to support an agenda (pot, kettle, black )

Are you saying the data is inaccurate?

Which brings me to the point that went over your head. As I said, you can find polls to support any arguments. You cite something like eighteen. Eighteen that do not show progressive growth in support for the yes campaign (and also 18 out of how many polls out there?). Indeed the percentages are up and down like a yo yo. So can you link me to 5-6 polls (original source not a blog site) that show consistent growth in yes voters from January 2015-September 2015? (IE no drops in % support at all and no repeat % results in consecutive months).

You are hilarious. Your original point was that there has been a consistent drop for the YES side in the polls since the start of the year. Your argument was not that the polls don't show consistent growth.

The polls I have posted (18!) show that at worst the polls are the same now as they were at the start of the year.

You are in total denial. It's not even as if what I am claiming is in any way controversial. Even John Curtis (Elixr posted one of his articles trying to disprove my point) agrees with me:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-34277133

During the course of the last year, no less than 25 polls have asked people how they would vote in a second referendum.
While most, 17, have put "No" ahead, seven have suggested that a majority would vote "Yes" (while one showed a tie).
Nearly all of them have put the two sides close to each other. On average, these polls have (after leaving aside Don't Knows) put support for Yes at 48%, and for No, 52%.
Most voters (over 90%) say they would vote the same way now as they did a year ago.

Move to 'Yes'

However, most polls have also found that slightly more people say they have switched from "No" to "Yes" than vice-versa. That is why the "No" lead now looks to be somewhat narrower.
This mood is not a recent one. It was in evidence as soon as the referendum was over.

Whether you agree with the polls I found or not, though, is just as relevant as whether I agree with yours or not (hint not very much). I also think if you have based your entire discussion on polls about an independence referendum you are missing the bigger picture and are, intentionally or not, glossing over the cracks in the pro independence plans.

Again, waffle waffle waffle. You were claiming that polling for YES was on the decline and that was what I was disproving. Stop trying to change the subject.

Fixed for clarity. To be fair, you probably see that as an unbiased source so you're blissfully unaware that it has already done the cherry picking for you.

I've also done you the favour of removing undecideds from your list of "accurate" pre-referendum polls so they're comparable to recent results, you can find it here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aMAa5RNVK-w9Y1knniO-Vz_9kVKsJwFv3vKdKudIXVg

Yes 48%, No 52%. Neck and neck! And when applying the lovelyhead weighting formula of removing any results with Yes not above 48%, it changes to Yes 49%, No 51%!

So are you now trying to argue that 48/52 isn't neck and neck!

 

[Elixir]

The polls I have posted (18!) show that at worst the polls are the same now as they were at the start of the year.

You are in total denial. It's not even as if what I am claiming is in any way controversial. Even John Curtis (Elixr posted one of his articles trying to disprove my point) agrees with me:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-34277133

"On average, these polls have (after leaving aside Don't Knows) put support for Yes at 48%, and for No, 52%."

Exactly the same as they did last year, the evidence for which is in the spreadsheet I linked to above.

You have claimed multiple times that the support for independence has grown since the referendum, yet it remains the same.

 

[lovelyhead]

"On average, these polls have (after leaving aside Don't Knows) put support for Yes at 48%, and for No, 52%."

Exactly the same as they did last year, the evidence for which is in the spreadsheet I linked to above.

You have claimed multiple times that the support for independence has grown since the referendum, yet it remains the same.

And again that is where you are wrong. Again.

If you take the average of the last 20 poll results in the referendum (from the wikipedia page) it gives YES an average of 43.6%. That includes the 4 rogue polls that showed YES ahead.

Last time I checked 48% is higher than 43.6%. Talking out your arse again.

 

[Elixir]

And again that is where you are wrong. Again.

If you take the average of the last 20 poll results in the referendum (from the wikipedia page) it gives YES an average of 43.6%. That includes the 4 rogue polls that showed YES ahead.

Last time I checked 48% is higher than 43.6%. Talking out your arse again.

You're not removing don't knows. Please start being consistent, I know it's difficult but you need to try and be unbiased.

The BBC article you just linked shows polls are "neck and neck" (48:52). Using the same methodology as that article, the polls were also "neck and neck" (48:52) last year, immediately before Yes suffered a defeat of 45% to 55% in the referendum. The polls aren't accurate, and Yes support hasn't changed.

 

[lovelyhead]

You're not removing don't knows. Please start being consistent, I know it's difficult but you need to try and be unbiased.

You'll find I was. The wiki page:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Scottish_independence_referendum,_2014

already has the results broken down into YES, NO and Undecided.

Any other excuses or will you just accept you are wrong?

The BBC article you just linked shows polls are "neck and neck" (48:52). Using the same methodology as that article, the polls were also "neck and neck" (48:52) last year, immediately before Yes suffered a defeat of 45% to 55% in the referendum. The polls aren't accurate, and Yes support hasn't changed.

What are you talking about? It's OK to be wrong sometimes. I promise I will let it go if you just admit it.