Doesn't matter what your point is or games used for example, you/we do not know what the next future games vrams demands are.
Historically your view gets blootered anyway, it
always, always happens, 3Gb 79's outlasted high end 2Gb 6 series, but the 4Gb cards chugged on and the folks it happens to-put up lots of

's when they say they should have gotten the one with more ram.
3Gb 7 series junked when they ran out of... notice the pattern...
As everyone doesn't share your fps target, some are more than happy playing 49fps average, millions are playing@30fps.
The answer to the question you didn't want to answer is MOAR vram, that's exactly how one core can play smoother than the other without huge single figure dips.
If it doesn't matter what my point is then why do you bother bending your arguments to suit the discussion?
Firstly, I can easily reverse your claims: YOU don't know what future vram requirements will be like so maybe I'm right?

And I most likely am, unless you believe that old cards somehow get more powerful as the time passes. To use more vram, you have to have a more powerful card. And for games to use more vram, they have to use more effects, better textures etc. The issue will remain exactly like it is now, only more pronounced. It's awfully simple really.
If I give you concrete examples and you say it doesn't matter the what should I believe in? Fairytales? Care to tell me how a game that uses up 2gbs of vram at 1440p and makes a card run out of steam is going to runy any faster on a 8gb one? I'm really interested
Secondly, my view doesn't get blottered since what you say rarely happens (unless you're talking about resale value, this is just complete cobblers) because 99% of the time you change cards because you run out of grunt, not out vram. This is the most commonly shared view. Ironically, when I had a similar argument with a bloke using similar arguments as yours, a guy chimed in and said he has yet to change a card due to vram limitations
And if you want to play the "you don't know" card, then how do you know what other people's fps target is?

Especially on an enthusiast forum, where some users are obsessed with 144hz and uber-high details? And do you honestly believe people buy stuff like the 970/390 to play at 30fps?

And if you do play at 30fps you're going to have a hard time using the available vram, anyways
If you argue about VRAM as a factor in smooth gameplay then why do yu dissmiss the problem of fps drops, saying that people have different fps targets? Seems a bit contradictory. "Oh, my card's barely chugging along but I'm set for the future because I have more VRAM, MWAHAHAHAH!" Come on man, be sensible. Frequently dropping significantly below 60 fps is not smooth, face it.
My point still stands and you don't need history to prove it, just a brief run in some current games.