That's a good point actually, I hadn't even considered their manufacturing capacity. I hope Tesla does well, it's the first "mainstream" car manufacturer that's been successful in decades, and let's be honest, if it wasn't for Tesla and Nissan to an extent, the most advanced leccy cars we'd have would still be those little Noddy cars, Gwiz or whatever they're called. Hateful little things.
Had a ride a in a Tesla P90D today
- Thread starter Sagalout
- Start date
Imo, how successful they will be really depends on how quickly the big manufactures start producing decent electric cars, atm they all seem to have their head in the sand. It's not just about building the car, it's supply of the batteries, recharge network etc. So the big manufacturers can't just wait till price drops and then build a decent car, there's a lot more work needed than just that.
Yep. What electric cars need is a unified battery system like USB plugs, and a way of replacing the batteries in minutes at a designated station, so you could drive from one end of the country to another and simply swap batteries over as if you were simply filling the tank. Those stations could then charge your old battery/ies and give it to the next customer.
Obviously that's only a rough idea but sometying along those lines would change the way the world sees electric cars in a very short timespan.
Obviously that's only a rough idea but sometying along those lines would change the way the world sees electric cars in a very short timespan.
Soldato
- Joined
- 19 Oct 2002
- Posts
- 18,258
- Location
- Shakespeare’s County
That makes no sense at all. That foes not mean you have any clue about costs of new technologies or how they fall in price.
If what you said was true, we would still be in the stone age. Mew technology costs a lot of money, it then falls over time as it becomes better understood, easier to manufacturer and mass produced.
So yes you were talking balony and still are.
Last edited:
LOL
They have their heads in the sand as they are long term, sustainable businesses. The opposite is small start ups who jump on the moment today just like tesla - this is working well now as Tesla is also a great halo product for the other elon Musk projects. This helps his agenda
However EV are short term at the moment as they are loss making. Tesla is a bit of a niche as they dont have any other vehicles using IC therfore they have loads of carbon credits to sell and keep the company in the black. Without this they would be (and will be) in the red - despite any technology stuff.
They are still a low volume manufacturer and wont be able to make cars at the cost targets of the 'normal' OEMs. Toyota have openly said the future is plug in hybrid, many other OEMs see EV as a side arm to the core vehicle stuff.
I don't see why you believe to know more than the OEMs and the rest of the industry about future trends.
How's it short term?
The credits aren't going to be massively going to be cut, fossil fuel costs are only going to rise. Push for clean fuel is only going to rise, as seen in the recent signing of COP21.
As I said it takes time for things to happen, big car companies can't just wait then come out swinging. They have to have a lot if things in place first, that is why their heads are in the sand. The only thing that makes it slightly easier for them, is Tesla has released the patents and will allow deals to be made to use their supercharge infrastructure.
I don't see why you think part of the industry is right and the other part is wrong.
Everything points towards electric, that is what invade it on. Just have to look at EU and other countries plans, looks at things like COP21. Look at how price if batteries have fallen, whilst capacity has steadily increased.
Or just look at what you were saying two years ago, that Tesla sucked and no one would like it, compared to know where a large portion would actuary like a Tesla if it was affordable.
Big companies can and do make massive mistakes by burying their heads, look at NOKIA under estimating smart phones.
The credits aren't going to be massively going to be cut, fossil fuel costs are only going to rise. Push for clean fuel is only going to rise, as seen in the recent signing of COP21.
As I said it takes time for things to happen, big car companies can't just wait then come out swinging. They have to have a lot if things in place first, that is why their heads are in the sand. The only thing that makes it slightly easier for them, is Tesla has released the patents and will allow deals to be made to use their supercharge infrastructure.
I don't see why you think part of the industry is right and the other part is wrong.
Everything points towards electric, that is what invade it on. Just have to look at EU and other countries plans, looks at things like COP21. Look at how price if batteries have fallen, whilst capacity has steadily increased.
Or just look at what you were saying two years ago, that Tesla sucked and no one would like it, compared to know where a large portion would actuary like a Tesla if it was affordable.
Big companies can and do make massive mistakes by burying their heads, look at NOKIA under estimating smart phones.
Last edited:
I'm not sure companies that are fundamentally based on burning fossil fuels are too interested in doing deals to help out a company that is fundamentally based on doing anything but burning fossil fuels.
That was my initial reaction as well, but I would temper that view slightly with thoughts around how diversification strategies sometimes pan out. It is not inconceivable that some organisations might want to look at similar options when/if electric and hybrid technologies start to gain traction in the market. If you can get someone to park on your forecourt while charging, you have a potential customer to sell other services to.
Probably not the best / most relevant example but I'll mention it anyway. Consider Kodak, who used to make an awful lot of money from photographic film. They initially chose to shun digital because of fears about what it might mean for their core business. But the market moved on anyway and they got left behind. Admittedly, oil giants are a bit different and probably have less agility to switch product lines but I guess the point I'm trying to make is that simply ignoring technological change/shocks because they pose a threat (as opposed to diversification) may not work out for the best.
I could (through the business as you get tax benefits) buy it, but my other car is a Fiat 500 - not ideal for a long journey.
The guy whose car I went in owns no other car.
I doubt many people would own a Tesla Models S and another similar, but petrol/diesel engined car.
When did i say Tesla sucked 2 years ago? I guess you also said fossil fuels are only going to go up 2 years ago too? Today oil price they is at a 9 year low (not accounting for inflation either!)
All the industry reports including the ETI expect to see a max of 10% of new cars EV by 2050.
Nothing moves fast in the automotive industry, the majority of the car parc over 10 years old still so its not going to instant, nor need nimble reacting companies. However this doesnt mean EV are ignored, quite the opposite
zero emissions is a false claim too - until the power generation is all emission free.
10 of sales or 10% of fleet, very different things, and no things dint always move slowly it very much depends on regulation. I would put a large bet they will be utterly wrong, it will be far more than 10% sales by 2050.
You've been very focal about the public resistance to EVs, yet with just a couple of years most of the public has been converted, now the price just needs to drop.
And price if fuel is only one issue, legislation is another and as every year goes by, more and more restrictions will come into place. Again look at cop21 that just happened, let alone another decade, or even 2050. I honestly don't know what if anything I've said about fuel prices. Not that I should or would get everything right. However I have always said the price is artificially set, that new technology would find more sources and we will stop using it way before we have a real shortage.
Look at the no diesel ideas for city centres, it all adds up to one direction, a direction for what ever reason you keep dismissing,
You've been very focal about the public resistance to EVs, yet with just a couple of years most of the public has been converted, now the price just needs to drop.
And price if fuel is only one issue, legislation is another and as every year goes by, more and more restrictions will come into place. Again look at cop21 that just happened, let alone another decade, or even 2050. I honestly don't know what if anything I've said about fuel prices. Not that I should or would get everything right. However I have always said the price is artificially set, that new technology would find more sources and we will stop using it way before we have a real shortage.
Look at the no diesel ideas for city centres, it all adds up to one direction, a direction for what ever reason you keep dismissing,
Last edited:
Are you even reading who's posting ? I've said nothing about public not dismissing. Simply telsa as a car company would be bankrupt by now if it wasn't for selling credits. This is a fact no matter what you think about the future. These credits have effectively allowed the company to get to where is it now by running at a loss. If everyone had this approach, it wouldn't work. Who would be buying the credits ??? So don't go on about other OEMs being slow. If they were fast (or had an interest) then tesla would not exist. The reality is they can hit emission targets and make cars and make profit. This is something tesla can't do.
The other stuff about EV penetration in the market is simple providing an opinion with actual industry reports and views to help drive that. If I'm wrong then my employer is also wrong.
(10% was new car sales)
And yes as years go by emissions get tighter. You go on about battery technology but ignore the IC stuff. If battery technology improves it also helps hybrids. Imagine a hybrid car that could use a battery that can charge so fast that you don't need brakes.
The other stuff about EV penetration in the market is simple providing an opinion with actual industry reports and views to help drive that. If I'm wrong then my employer is also wrong.
(10% was new car sales)
And yes as years go by emissions get tighter. You go on about battery technology but ignore the IC stuff. If battery technology improves it also helps hybrids. Imagine a hybrid car that could use a battery that can charge so fast that you don't need brakes.
Last edited:
Have you been reading? I haven't said otherwise.
You said once these go. Not if they magically diapered over night in a made up scenario. That's what I was debating with you, so yes thanks I have been reading. They aren't going anywhere and by the time they do, it is almost a certainty they will be profitable.
10% new car sales, they are so far off the mark, they should be ashamed. again this is based on many countries plans, along with emission controls/treaties and what is likely to happen in coming decades. Or maybe they get a nice Pay check from a certain side.
You said once these go. Not if they magically diapered over night in a made up scenario. That's what I was debating with you, so yes thanks I have been reading. They aren't going anywhere and by the time they do, it is almost a certainty they will be profitable.
10% new car sales, they are so far off the mark, they should be ashamed. again this is based on many countries plans, along with emission controls/treaties and what is likely to happen in coming decades. Or maybe they get a nice Pay check from a certain side.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/03/...ion-off-the-carb-enabled-battery-swap-scheme/
This is one view point for the more neutral minded reader.
Poor Nikolai Tesla. Talking about using someone's name for the wrong reason.
The tesla battery swap is funny too. That's just a way to get more credits.
This is one view point for the more neutral minded reader.
Poor Nikolai Tesla. Talking about using someone's name for the wrong reason.
The tesla battery swap is funny too. That's just a way to get more credits.
Yet, I'm not what you say. Again I'm well aware were they make there money and as pointed out haven't even said differently in this scheme. All I did is pick you up, on where you said when they lose these schemes they'll be bankrupt. That sentence very much as I pointed out, ignores the fall in price over the coming years and as they grow will rely less on these schemes.
These schemes are extremely unlikely to end over night.
So yes perhaps you should have been clearer and said if these schemes ended in the next few years they would be screwed, how ever that is unlikely.