Brexit thread - what happens next

Demon · 28 Jun 2016 at 20:20

do_ron_ron said:
Are you on a commission for this guy? Hardly a page goes by without you posting the same links.

I think even if you are highly sceptical it is worth watching, most people probably haven't really had a good explanation of the context of trade agreements, tariffs, etc.. so even if you don't share his 'models' and want to keep a pessimistic (or realistic if that's your opinion) view of the UK in the big wide world, it should highlight some of the negative aspects of staying fully in the EU, i.e. how bad trade deals can be when you are an EU member and want to trade outside the EU and one of those does also show why the EU tarriffs don't really favour the UK at all.. Of course to balance it all up, remember this is used as propaganda, so whilst much of it is technically true, the situation we are in is a bit more complicated..

Mauller · 28 Jun 2016 at 20:20

MonkeyMan said:
To be fair the EU constitution vote wasn't ignored, they just called it something else and passed it.

I think they called it something else, changed a few words and said it was not as bad or worth having a referendum over. but it was essentially the same document.

Mauller · 28 Jun 2016 at 20:22

joeyjojo said:
Just in case you (or others) didn't know, he's one of the chairs of Economists for Brexit.

They're a fairly extreme group, consisting of eight either 1980s/90s Tory advisers or City bankers.

In other words, they're a long way from the mainstream.

Even so he does make some very good points and opens up quite a bit of information on the trade deals and how bad things can be for a lot of industries inside the EU due to protectionism within those free trade deals.

w1lliam · 28 Jun 2016 at 20:22

Mauller said:
I found it, apparently it was the following clause he wanted to remove.

it is ammendmant 10 on here

It must have been quotes from Juncker that i was remembering about hostility and making things as difficult as possible towards the UK leaving the EU. And making us an example to stop anyone else from leaving, etc.

Oh, I'm half-way through watching it at the moment to see where these hostile words are coming from.

So you haven't any quotes or anything and you were actually bull****ing.

Good to know.

do_ron_ron · 28 Jun 2016 at 20:23

Greebo said:
He would seem to be the only person in the world with some logic to say why we should leave the EU. Oh and he has some letters after his name.

But, but, but the leave side said we shouldnt listen to experts

You mean like the Youtube video of a Professor of Law at Liverpool an expert in EU Law and trade negotiations on how hard it is going to be to disentangle ourselves and then form new treaties?

thenewoc · 28 Jun 2016 at 20:23

w1lliam said:
Isn't that what just happened and why we're in this mess in the 1st place?

No the Government and remain campaign made plenty of noise and leaflets at our expense too. Some people just can't accept the democratic outcome, sad really. If it had been FPTP like in general elections it would have been a far greater majority for leave but as it is you had 1 person 1 vote and still lost.

Mauller · 28 Jun 2016 at 20:25

w1lliam said:
Oh, I'm half-way through watching it at the moment to see where these hostile words are coming from.

So you haven't any quotes or anything and you were actually bull****ing.

Good to know.

Read the piece of legislation, if they were writing legislation to force his resignation based upon his hostilities towards the UK and others wanting to hold referenda, do you think i would be making it up?

Jokester · 28 Jun 2016 at 20:27

Mauller said:
Read the piece of legislation, if they were writing legislation to force his resignation based upon his hostilities towards the UK and others wanting to hold referenda, do you think i would be making it up?

That was what they were doing though? The ECR Group are anti-federalist EU and want Junker out.

Greebo · 28 Jun 2016 at 20:27

thenewoc said:
No the Government and remain campaign made plenty of noise and leaflets at our expense too. Some people just can't accept the democratic outcome, sad really. If it had been FPTP like in general elections it would have been a far greater majority for leave but as it is you had 1 person 1 vote and still lost.

It isnt about winning or losing. Please stop churning out "you lost nah nah nah, deal with it, suck it up buttercup"

** edited **

Its about what do we do now,. The remain people dont know where we go, but we can make educated guesses we will end up in EEA with freedom of movement.

Even now, the leave, and lets call them "winners" shall we?, have no idea what to do and where to go next. It genuinely scares me.

So what have you won? Please do tell me as I honestly have no idea.

ljt · 28 Jun 2016 at 20:28

Forgive my naivety but are our current trade deals with the likes of the USA,Russia,Asia,Australia/NZ etc (i.e. everywhere else in the world not in the EU) governed by EU rules/tariffs etc?

If so, surely now we are out, we could possibly get a even better deal from them? To offset a new weaker trade deal with the EU nations?

There seems a lot of focus on what will happen to our trade deals with the EU, but not much said about how we now have more control over bespoke deals with countries outside of the EU? (I'm just trying to look on the bright side here)

Arazi · 28 Jun 2016 at 20:29

Mauller said:
And that is exactly why a lot of people like him as a person and politician, becasue he is not a spineless Eton whelp like the muppets we have who are running the asylum.

Correct.

do_ron_ron · 28 Jun 2016 at 20:31

ljt said:
Forgive my naivety but are our current trade deals with the likes of the USA,Russia,Asia,Australia/NZ etc (i.e. everywhere else in the world not in the EU) governed by EU rules/tariffs etc?

If so, surely now we are out, we could possibly get a even better deal from them? To offset a new weaker trade deal with the EU nations?

There seems a lot of focus on what will happen to our trade deals with the EU, but not much said about how we now have more control over bespoke deals with countries outside of the EU? (I'm just trying to look on the bright side here)

In the nature of negotiating a small trade bloc always comes out weakest, so basically for example, America would dictate terms to us. And they all take time as well as has been mentioned already we have no skilled people because the EU has been doing it for us for the last 40 years.

joeyjojo · 28 Jun 2016 at 20:33

Mauller said:
Even so he does make some very good points and opens up quite a bit of information on the trade deals and how bad things can be for a lot of industries inside the EU due to protectionism within those free trade deals.

Agreed, heard him on the radio several times.

In fact I started to think he must be the only Brexit-leaning economist the BBC could find, in their desperation to provide "balance" vs. the BoE, IMF, CBI, 10 Noble prize winners and 280 other economists, etc. Maybe "balance" isn't such a good thing when it makes a minority seem like 50%.

Jono8 · 28 Jun 2016 at 20:35

ljt said:
Forgive my naivety but are our current trade deals with the likes of the USA,Russia,Asia,Australia/NZ etc (i.e. everywhere else in the world not in the EU) governed by EU rules/tariffs etc?

If so, surely now we are out, we could possibly get a even better deal from them? To offset a new weaker trade deal with the EU nations?

There seems a lot of focus on what will happen to our trade deals with the EU, but not much said about how we now have more control over bespoke deals with countries outside of the EU? (I'm just trying to look on the bright side here)

Yes, possibly, or they could be even worse. No one knows, least of all the leave campaigners.

do_ron_ron · 28 Jun 2016 at 20:36

If you look there is NO free trade anywhere in the world. All countries have one or more industries to protect and you only hear of them when it becomes news. America has protection on cotton for example.

Rincewindle · 28 Jun 2016 at 20:37

do_ron_ron said:
In the nature of negotiating a small trade bloc always comes out weakest, so basically for example, America would dictate terms to us. And they all take time as well as has been mentioned already we have no skilled people because the EU has been doing it for us for the last 40 years.

Sorry i disagree.

It doesnt matter what size trade blok you are in. or even if you are in any at all.

If you have something that the other guy wants to buy.... you sell them it, and vice versa

Mauller · 28 Jun 2016 at 20:37

joeyjojo said:
Agreed, heard him on the radio several times.

In fact I started to think he must be the only Brexit-leaning economist the BBC could find, in their desperation to provide "balance" vs. the BoE, IMF, CBI, 10 Noble prize winners and 280 other economists, etc. Maybe "balance" isn't such a good thing when it makes a minority seem like 50%.

I think part of the problem is due to a lot of those people, companies, institutions being privy to the protections those trade deals present. Pretty much what the professor was talking about.

So like he said you end up with a situation where some industries grow too large to fail, kind of like the UK and london becoming far too dependent on financial based services as a major source of our GDP. So those protections are put in place for those behemoths so they don't fail, but at the detriment of smaller upstarts.

opethdisciple · 28 Jun 2016 at 20:40

Why is Farage the UK EU representative??!! :eek:

Makes us look like a bunch of far right BNP supports! (yes I know he is UKIP)

Mauller · 28 Jun 2016 at 20:41

opethdisciple said:
Why is Farage the UK EU representative??!!

Because people overwhelmingly voted for UKIP MEP's in the European Elections. Therefore Ukip makes up the largest block of MEP's from the UK.

do_ron_ron · 28 Jun 2016 at 20:42

Arazi said:
Correct.

No a Dulwich whelp. Same background. Public school, City, Politics. Just like your average Joe, right?