Brexit thread - what happens next

[the_r_sole]

Technically the fact that the leave campaign were not a political party is the key reason there was no maifesto.

Of course it suits their ends not to be held to account for manifesto pledges because they could not possibly make any credible pledges as they had no way of knowing what the outsome of Article 50 would be.

The SNP also weren't the only party supporting a vote out of the uk - but they just did something about it, there was literally two years of pouring over details and scenarios - not all of which were supported by other people supporting the same vote - any party or group could have produced a document, there was an "official" leave campaign was there not?
Not knowing the outcome of Article 50 doesn't matter if you at least investigate the potential issues and highlight the options

 

[toshj]

Vodafone are performing very weakly in the UK right now, and are about to hit by a 10% revenue fine, have suffered reputational damage due to recent IT failings, and are facing huge pressure to actually pay their taxes.
Brexit might be more of an excuse for them to move rather than a reason.

Maybe so, but any company facing a situation of no clarity for the next few years - and with strong EU business - would be continually weakening themselves by not reacting to the uncertain situation. I already know banking teams looking to relocate staff to already established international offices.

I'm sure it's only "scaremongering" that means I may very well have to start making people redundant in my business though...

 

[mid_gen]

The question is, is the FTSE (and pound) recovering because they are betting the country will not invoke article 50 or is it coming to terms with a soft exit from the EU but still full market access?

The markets are mostly in speculation mode, plenty of good value stocks around after the falls immediately after the vote.

It's the economic data in the coming months that will be the real measure of the damage.

 

[estebanrey]

Juncker proudly banned officials from holding secret talks with British MEPs but is now going to have a secret meeting with Sturgeon today.

It's staggering how the man can be taken seriously.

 

[DanielMMS]

...The UK has been overruled on several issues in recent years where European courts have held sway over the UK...

This isn't intended to be a facetious question - I am genuinely interested - but about which issues are you actually referring and what was the real effect of such interference?

 

[Mynight]

Interesting to read that Vodafone is thinking about upping and heading to a EU base given the referendum vote. Hadn't realised such a small percentage of their revenue was derived from UK markets.

I think we may see quite a few international firms headquartered in the UK head on over to the Continent in the next year or so. Those with significant non-GBP revenues would be mad not to do so.

Ergh wonder how many jobs could be lost. They had around 16,000 workers in 2015 .

 

[~>Dg<~]

Vodafone are performing very weakly in the UK right now, and are about to hit by a 10% revenue fine, have suffered reputational damage due to recent IT failings, and are facing huge pressure to actually pay their taxes.
Brexit might be more of an excuse for them to move rather than a reason.

yes i actually thought good ! non tax paying dodgy gits.if they actually paid what they should they would be great instead they use various ways to get round not giving the uk what they should.

 

[BuffetSlayer]

The SNP also weren't the only party supporting a vote out of the uk - but they just did something about it, there was literally two years of pouring over details and scenarios - not all of which were supported by other people supporting the same vote - any party or group could have produced a document, there was an "official" leave campaign was there not?
Not knowing the outcome of Article 50 doesn't matter if you at least investigate the potential issues and highlight the options

But the SNP were a political party and their leaders were in support of independence. Which major party was in support of leaving Europe? None.

Agreed there was an official leave campaign but what could they promise? None of them were in a position to make any negotiations if we left europe and were really at the behest of the actions of the people they opposed.

Of course, I think it is also they case that they not only didn't expect to win, they didn't really want to.

 

[Mr Jack]

It's the economic data in the coming months that will be the real measure of the damage.

Yup, it's the GDP figures for Jul-Sep (released in October) that we'll need to wait for to get a clear picture. Before then we'll get some unemployment figures (not the ones out in July, they're pre-Brexit) and a range of other indicators. The short term movements in the pound, and FTSE 250, are indicators of what the markets expect to happen but even there, day-to-day fluctuations are more noise than signal, although you can tell something from the scale of the initial drops.

 

[Zethor]

Vodafone are performing very weakly in the UK right now, and are about to hit by a 10% revenue fine, have suffered reputational damage due to recent IT failings, and are facing huge pressure to actually pay their taxes.
Brexit might be more of an excuse for them to move rather than a reason.

Does it matter how it is doing in the UK? If the HQ moves, thousands of jobs are lost.

 

[Errol]

lol.

 

[Mynight]

Pretty sure that's already been posted.

Does it matter how it is doing in the UK? If the HQ moves, thousands of jobs are lost.

Annoyingly they don't pay their tax but they do employ a lot of people not sure how it's distributed between stores and HO though.

I would assume they'll still have a HO in the UK to service their stores.

 

[Cold Fusion]

The FTSE 100 might be recovering but the FTSE 250 isn't really and neither is the pound.

Lets be more accurate here they are recovering but have not reached 'pre-result levels'

FTSE 100 Wed 09:41 6251.31 +110.92 +1.81%

FTSE 250 Wed 09:41 15694.67 +191.61 +1.24%

As reference the FTSE 100 was at its highest at 6350 this month and the FTSE 250 was at 17250.

Currencies are recovering much more slowly

As with a lot of things any major news events cause markets to react usually without any real reason other than 'panic' they usually recover fairly quickly.

 

[LOAM]

In the event of a GE, which is either likely or unlikely depending on who you watch, myself and the misses will be voting for which ever party sets out its mandate to not invoke A50. I don't care what its other policies are tbh (within reason) or past misdemeanors, they would get my vote.

 

[englishpremier]

Pretty sure that's already been posted.



Annoyingly they don't pay their tax but they do employ a lot of people not sure how it's distributed between stores and HO though.

I would assume they'll still have a HO in the UK to service their stores.

If anything, all they'd do is open up another office say in Netherlands, or somewhere, and have a management team and small (in comparison) number of staff there.

They are a major player in the UK telcoms industry, and aren't going to just close down and sod off.

 

[joeyjojo]

However the significant majority of the imports are from China (with tariffs applied) or the other two, again with tariffs applied. Hell we trade with half African countries importing agricultural products, and the EU has no agreement with any of them.

There's a huge difference between the cost of production in China compared to the UK though. This is the main purpose of tariffs - to prevent certain sectors disappearing completely.

You're right it's not like the EU is going to embargo UK goods, but if tariffs are too high it could make good less attractive even with the weaker £.

 

[Mynight]

If anything, all they'd do is open up another office say in Netherlands, or somewhere, and have a management team and small (in comparison) number of staff there.

They are a major player in the UK telcoms industry, and aren't going to just close down and sod off.

I have no clue what they're going to do. Until they do it anythings a guess at the moment.

 

[BubbySoup]

This isn't intended to be a facetious question - I am genuinely interested - but about which issues are you actually referring and what was the real effect of such interference?

A quick Google will give you some answers. The UK government has lost quite a lot of cases brought in front of the EU courts.

 

[Trifid]

The FTSE 100 might be recovering but the FTSE 250 isn't really and neither is the pound.

I did go to edit it to include the 250 but decided my statement was still factual. They are increasing but the 250 took a real battering and is increasing slower then the 100.

 

[Judgeneo]

Does it matter how it is doing in the UK? If the HQ moves, thousands of jobs are lost.

True, my previous employer had good sized contracts with them that would probably be lost if they moved overseas for instance.

My point was that its not necessarily because of Brexit.