Brexit thread - what happens next

[do_ron_ron]

This is what I don't understand most about Farage. He's a complete elitist, part of the system, bigot. Yet people like him.

How has he pulled the wool over so many eyes, the same eyes that view the likes of Cameron as part of the evil establishment that must be beaten?

It's his 'ordinary bloke' image, swilling a pint and smoking. He is a manifestation of the general discontent of the public in the system. If we were enjoying a growth period like the early 2000's he would be ignored by most of the people.

 

[Sudden]

Why would they choose the UK?

Because...because...sovereignty!

 

[Arazi]

Europe.... You mean Germany, France and a wee bit of Italy....

Exactly, all the rest are dictated by these.

 

[Arazi]

Delusional? I think it's the most likely outcome by a long way. Especially once other countries in the EU hold referendums and vote leave.

Force the EU to sit down with everyone and listen to what they actually want. Either that or the whole EU will dissolve.

Everyone is a winner then, no countries actually leave the EU, they all get better terms, the EU fights on… Remainers remain and leavers get the changes they wanted. Win, win, win.

That's my opinion, the EU will collapse before Article 50 is applied, then your post is what follows.

 

[ChroniC]

So instead of having one set of laws that manufacturers and traders have to abide by, we'll now have two sets and instead of it being trivially easy for any company that currently trades in the UK to start exporting to the EU, they'll now have two different sets of rule to keep track of.

Why is this a win exactly?

Because of the 90% of business.
10% of our GDP is exports to the EU. The rules they create restrictions on the way we manufactor, so we are losing out on trade with the rest of the world for 10% of our total business.
It makes sense to rid ourselves of them for that reason alone, so that we can become more competative with the world market which we are increasingly becoming more dependant apon.

People are blinkered into thinking that everything we make is bought by Europe and no one else. If you felt you were being held back on purpose so that your local neighbour doesn't lose out to you because your cheaper than him, then you would see the failing of the EU.

 

[do_ron_ron]

Explains your bitter opinions against nearly everyone else's opinions in this thread.

As gamblers say, "your talking through your pocket", which results in irrational opinions.

Not really as I fully accept the mantra that investments can go down as well as up and that any particular investment was my choice alone.

From my reading of the posts on this thread I am with the majority rather than

against nearly everyone else's opinions in this thread.

 

[datalol-jack]

Why do people always refer back to WWII.

In what universe does fighting a World War have anything to do with leaving the EU?

WWII was one of the chief precedents that lead to the creation of the EU, the main disagreements from then on were about how much of the common institutions were enough to keep the situation from escalating to such destructive levels ever again, with us wanting markets to solve it all, and the continentals desiring a more federal approach. Also the clash of NATO vs we do it ourselves, dropping the Yanks at some point. Obviously our position wasn't as consistent as that, as our dabbling in human rights, Cold War imperatives, regime changes and later press for the EU's expansion to the east indicate (which we have since seem to have disowned, along with our responsibilities to the democracies of those countries, oh well).

Destabilising the EU now is seen as destabilising said aim. WW3? Meh, but something along the lines of a Yugoslavian split and more extremism that thrives on economic instability nearer to home is quite possible in the worst case scenario. And how's that good for anyone?

 

[wordy]

I've been watching a few US news channels and it's interesting to note that many US economists, ex diplomats, politicians etc are confident the UK will do well in the long run outside the EU. Odd how they are seemingly more positive than UK pundits.

The UK press are falling over themselves to report doom & gloom, hoping more happens so they can report on it.

 

[Mr Jack]

Because of the 90% of business.
10% of our GDP is exports to the EU. The rules they create restrictions on the way we manufactor, so we are losing out on trade with the rest of the world for 10% of our total business.
It makes sense to rid ourselves of them for that reason alone, so that we can become more competative with the world market which we are increasingly becoming more dependant apon.

But we're not going to have no regulation, I mean we still want factories to not pollute our rivers, and we still want the toasters we buy not to explode. We're just going to have different regulation. Instead of working with our neighbours and using a common set of regulation, we're going to have our own set of slightly different rules. And their rules too, when we want to sell to them.

It's stupid.

 

[Mr Jack]

Disestablishing the EU now is seen as destabilising said aim. WW3? Meh, but something along the lines of a Yugoslavian split and more extremism that thrives on economic instability nearer to home is quite possible in the worst case scenario. And how's that good for anyone?

Yup, while a war might seem unthinkable for us, the Eastern European nations joining the EU very much see it as a means to ensure peace for them.

 

[Mr Jack]

Everyone is a winner then, no countries actually leave the EU, they all get better terms, the EU fights on… Remainers remain and leavers get the changes they wanted. Win, win, win.

This is literally impossible. The largest body of the Leave vote want to get rid of immigration from the EU whereas myself, and many of the rest of the 48%, see freedom of movement as the single greatest achievement and win of the EU.

 

[do_ron_ron]

I've been watching a few US news channels and it's interesting to note that many US economists, ex diplomats, politicians etc are confident the UK will do well in the long run outside the EU. Odd how they are seemingly more positive than UK pundits.

Feels like US has more faith in UK than the UK has in its own ability to thrive as a Nation state at the moment.

I wonder if the Commonwealth will play into this too. When the UK originally joined the EU, the French moaned about it because they felt our place was with the Commonwealth. But there is no trade agreement amongst Commonwealth Nations, which is a real shame. Would be fantastic. Now that really would be a good plan of action for the next PM. To try to push for one. But could be a pipedream.

At odds with the statement on Newsnight last night from the American director of the FT who said most Americans cannot believe Britain shot herself in the foot.

 

[datalol-jack]

Yup, while a war might seem unthinkable for us, the Eastern European nations joining the EU very much see it as a means to ensure peace for them.

Not to mention that only as a bloc we can bring America, China or Russia to heel economically. As just us, or, as some naively still believe, via a big NATO stick, we won't have the same impact. And obviously since we've just shown the reverse V to Europe's political structures, I doubt we will be involved in much of the relevant decision making, aside from whatever remains of our information sharing and policing work, ever again.

 

[dowie]

I've been watching a few US news channels and it's interesting to note that many US economists, ex diplomats, politicians etc are confident the UK will do well in the long run outside the EU. Odd how they are seemingly more positive than UK pundits.

Feels like US has more faith in UK than the UK has in its own ability to thrive as a Nation state at the moment.

I wonder if the Commonwealth will play into this too. When the UK originally joined the EU, the French moaned about it because they felt our place was with the Commonwealth. But there is no trade agreement amongst Commonwealth Nations, which is a real shame. Would be fantastic. Now that really would be a good plan of action for the next PM. To try to push for one. But could be a pipedream.

hardly a pipe dream... at least as far as Australia, Canada and New Zealand are concerned - quite a few from those countries would be very keen to forge greater links with us and to arrange better terms for movement of people between those countries

 

[do_ron_ron]

Exactly, all the rest are dictated by these.

Maybe but when we were in there we were one of the three big voices, Germany Britain and France.

 

[the_r_sole]

How has he shafted you?

Sorry I forgot the finance industry was set up for the good of the people rather than profit at any cost... and hasn't caused any hassle for anyone

It's easy to stand by your principles after you've made your money - he hates the elite and the banks eh? bet he wasn't shouting that through his education or working life!

He's an absolute imposter that has duped middle england into believing he's a "man of the people" for his own ends.

The fact is he's a millionaire, public school educated, retired city trader who has won votes as the alternative to millionaire public school educated politicians who pander to the banks... that's not much of an alternative

 

[Hotwired]

EFTA + our own trade deals would be great for our economy, unfortunately the immigration/free movement aspect means some form of compromise will need to be found

Seeing as it was well known beforehand and underlined repeatedly the other day that it'll be the one thing they won't move on there will be nothing good coming out of this.

The entire eastern side of europe will torpedo it since much of their own population will kick their ass for destroying their livelihood.

Then out of the others there is no incentive to bend the rules for a country that leaves. How could it possibly be good for the UK and not a slap in the face for everyone who stays?

The EU doesn't even have to punish the UK, they hold the line on the trade and movement and that's it. Incredibly easy argument to hold no matter how much that conservative party in the UK is tearing itself apart and by extension bringing their drama into the EU.

 

[StriderX]

We may have been a big voice, but not to the same level of France and certainly not Germany.

They ultimately get the support of all other nations in the EU, even within it we were alone.

 

[dowie]

Sorry I forgot the finance industry was set up for the good of the people rather than profit at any cost... and hasn't caused any hassle for anyone

It's easy to stand by your principles after you've made your money - he hates the elite and the banks eh? bet he wasn't shouting that through his education or working life!

He's an absolute imposter that has duped middle england into believing he's a "man of the people" for his own ends.

The fact is he's a millionaire, public school educated, retired city trader who has won votes as the alternative to millionaire public school educated politicians who pander to the banks... that's not much of an alternative

You've not answered the question, perhaps because you can't - how do you think he has shafted you? It just sounds like mindless rhetoric 'oh no he's worked in the city therefore he's evil'. As for not an alternative, his stance is and has been completely counter to the 'elites' being mentioned previously...

 

[do_ron_ron]

That's my opinion, the EU will collapse before Article 50 is applied, then your post is what follows.

Wow. Never heard anyone say this before. Enlighten us all on why the EU will collapse in the three or so months.