Brexit thread - what happens next

[datalol-jack]

We'll be fine then

Rhyl will endure regardless. It'd actually be fun to turn a town like that into Hong Kong 2. I'm genuinely surprised that people like Minford are suggesting their free-market drivel country-wide; why not special economic zones, considering our regional troubles? Devolve and experiment on Yorkshire if anything first!

 

[joeyjojo]

In-work, housing, etc benefits are all available immediately, provided the applicant can prove they are in some sort of work, part time or otherwise.

Its only out of work benefits where you wait. Basically people can move where they want, say they are working and claim almost as many benefits as an out of work person would.

So are you saying EU immigrants shouldn't get in-work benefits like locals, or that they shouldn't get away with fraud?

I thought the "emergency brake" we heard so much about was basically this, a way to halt in-work benefits?

 

[dowie]

my personal failings? yes I am the multi millionaire backers of the projects I design and deliver.

Onto the ignore list, then I can be properly ignorant of you

(still no mention of the actual point either, nicely deflected, are you nigels campaign manager?)

no mention of the actual point - you made dubious statements about his background and I pointed out that they were flawed and based on your own misunderstanding. Sorry if reality affects your ignorant view of how aspects of the world actually work... feel free to ignore reality and blame anyone who works in the city for your own misfortune. A guy who bought and sold metals was somehow responsible for your redundancy because 'city' 'bankers' 'trading' etc..

 

[Amp34]

Aren't there still laws/regs that apply to the single market that we wouldn't have a say over?

Yes. Which is why the whole "sovereignty" argument was bull from the start.

We will likely have less say in a subset of our laws now, rather than more.

The really depressing part is that many of the sections of law leave supporters are most vocally against are laws the British government had a say in whether to implement and/or had little to do with the EU anyway.

 

[Stretch]

the UK in general in the long run

In what way?

 

[sityeuropa]

Hopefully past the crazy turmoil now, everyone getting used to the idea of Brexit. Onwards and upwards. Lets prosper.

 

[datalol-jack]

Yes. Which is why the whole "sovereignty" argument was bull from the start.

We will likely have less say in a subset of our laws now, rather than more.

The really depressing part is that many of the sections of law leave supporters are most vocally against are laws the British government had a say in whether to implement and/or had little to do with the EU anyway.

Sovereignty is the tender you offer as soon as you step outside your front door. And yes, it was purely a rhetorical device. For all the talk of damn the experts, they'll be increasingly running our lives for the foreseeable future. Let's hope we've still got some of those skilled migrants knocking about, and a few grey trade vets of our own.

 

[dowie]

In what way?

increasing trade with the rest of the world, not tying ourselves to a block that is stagnating and has its own rather serious issues (in particular the Mediterranean countries), improved economic growth...

 

[Sleepery]

I'm really struggling to see who the winners are in this debacle.

Quite possibly Ireland (or at least Dublin), despite being so closely tied tradewise with the UK. Dublin's the obvious English speaking EU hub city alternative to London. We've already got a load of tech giants with their Euro headquarters here.

I'm just waiting for the boatloads of refugee bankers to start rolling up

 

[do_ron_ron]

Atleast Asia is still growing, boom!

Not really. China and a few countries still have some growth but India has problems with low growth, Australia is dependant on Mineral exports for wealth which isn't happening. China also has a problem with a shadow economy, the lending of money to build speculative apartments/office space which since the Crash have been empty. There was a CH$ prog on that a few months ago. It being a problem because Central Govt. has to pick up the tab of these 'unofficial loans'.

 

[Amp34]

In the EU, all regulations apply.

When the UK wants to trade with the USA, or Japan or wherever, those companies have to make sure their products and services comply with the regulations in that country. So in whatever model we choose outside the EU, trade with the EU will still be subject to EU rules. The vast majority of our businesses, don't trade with the EU.

Yet to simplify things and not end up with two processing lines almost all will adhere to EU standards, just in case their product ends up going into something sold in the EU. So basically it'll make carry little difference.

The idea that Jaguar/Landrover will suddenly start making large, polluting, inefficient V8s and others will start making standard incandescent bulbs agains is fanciful. The market will be too small, and very few people will be interested ins spending more in fuel to power them. (Using those two as examples as they have both been brought up by leave supporters in this thread).

 

[datalol-jack]

Not really. China and a few countries still have some growth but India has problems with low growth, Australia is dependant on Mineral exports for wealth which isn't happening. China also has a problem with a shadow economy, the lending of money to build speculative apartments/office space which since the Crash have been empty. There was a CH$ prog on that a few months ago. It being a problem because Central Govt. has to pick up the tab of these 'unofficial loans'.

Japan has been dead for years, if massive growth is all you look at.

 

[Mr Jack]

Hopefully past the crazy turmoil now, everyone getting used to the idea of Brexit. Onwards and upwards. Lets prosper.

My god. You really have no idea what's coming, do you?

Over? It's barely even begun. We haven't even triggered article 50 yet!. We've seen some initial market tremors in response to the vote, that's all. The real damage to the economy will come over the coming months and years.

 

[sityeuropa]

The FTSE is nearly back to pre Brexit, even at the inflated prediction of a remain.

 

[joeyjojo]

I agree with that, if people wanted to come here to only work then that is not a problem, coming here to just claim benefits is ridiculous, remain would have won if that option was on the table before the vote.

That is something attainable. It is the compromise that the EU and UK will make in order to maintain free trade.

Er, kitch9's comment was about stopping in-work benefits, something I think Cameron got out of his negotiations (the "emergency brake").

We already had stopped out of work benefits for EU migrants, back in March 2015.

 

[Firestar_3x]

Hopefully past the crazy turmoil now, everyone getting used to the idea of Brexit. Onwards and upwards. Lets prosper.

Yes, after 2 days we are past the worst of it now.

 

[Merlin5]

 

[datalol-jack]

increasing trade with the rest of the world, not tying ourselves to a block that is stagnating and has its own rather serious issues (in particular the Mediterranean countries), improved economic growth...

Interesting. But you see, ignoring for the moment that Europe imploding will hurt us financially anyway, in or out, by the time we get into that magical position of benefiting from said fast growing regions, those regions would've stopped growing, stabilised and begun competing for the service sectors we rely on. The current breakdown of competitive edges won't last, and I don't see us ever becoming a massive goods power again. What then? Same situation and lack of ideas, imho, or possibly cross fingers and hope Africa and South America become a thing.

Additionally, we used to sell people access to the EU internationally anyway, not anything in the UK as such. I don't think the Swiss model is good for that.

 

[Amp34]

Self governance is something that I remain skeptical about until we know the details but its highly likely that we will initially roll 100% of EU law into our own post exit for time constraints alone. Many of European laws make absolute sense anyway, why would we want to drop them? It has to be said, we only ever hear about the daft ones, which if we had representatives who actually turned up we could have probably prevented anyway. Regardless, look at the EEA and you'll see that we would have to accept many of the new EU laws anyway.

The only actual positive I can see in this is fishing quotas, IIRC are not part of an EEA agreement, but it seems like we are wrecking everything for an improvement in one industry, still confused.

We have already been through this several times. Fishing quotas are by and large not particularly related to the EU. Many of our quotas were either sold by the British government or British fishermen to foreign boats, and we also have to adhere to historical fishing rights and other treaties.

 

[Judgeneo]

Yet to simplify things and not end up with two processing lines almost all will adhere to EU standards, just in case their product ends up going into something sold in the EU. So basically it'll make carry little difference.

The idea that Jaguar/Landrover will suddenly start making large, polluting, inefficient V8s and others will start making standard incandescent bulbs agains is fanciful. The market will be too small, and very few people will be interested ins spending more in fuel to power them. (Using those two as examples as they have both been brought up by leave supporters in this thread).

For companies that do both EU and non-EU trade, sure. But for the majority of British companies that have nothing to do with the continent, different regulations will benefit them.