Brexit thread - what happens next

[dowie]

A bit like Corbyn then

potentially... though I'm not sure he'll have quite a rebellion on his hands, more like quite a few of them would prefer it not to be him rather than the outright this guy is a wet blanket with zero charisma, zero leadership skills and is unelectable in a general election.... which is the worry for the Labour MPs

 

[Demon]

You're just trying to call everybody who voted leave stupid in a roundabout way.

I don't think he is, he's just highlighting that some people on both sides really didn't have a clue about the referendum if you ask me..

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36661918
The 'reality check' posted by the BBC shows that clearly no one really knows what is going to happen even in the short term, you can argue either way
- The markets may have stabilised until article 50 is invoked, or
- The markets have stabilised as people realise the UK is strong enough to get through this and we are a better financial prospect than the eurozone..

One thing is for sure, pre referendum it was all doom and gloom, now it's a 'wait and see' from quite a lot of prominent remain campaigners..

Just one example, Ozzy said we'd have an immediate emergency budget and taxes would instantly rise, now it's 'maybe'.. and reading the BBC article, actually at the moment, despite the EU being reasonably hardline, the government can ride through this if we don't get mass migration of businesses..

 

[delta0]

Who may then decide Paris or Frankfurt is not such a bad idea. That would really shaft the country.

Not sure they would benefit as the rules would be the same and they would have higher business taxes. Switzerland would be better. However I doubt the UK will lose the few rule exemptions it got anyway.

 

[do_ron_ron]

Maybe the country needs to adapt a bit. Shift towards the technology industries. Makes sense given the fact land prices will fall and non-EU business can become more straight forward for components manufacturing.

We've come to rely on service industries far too much in recent years.

That will take time, decades probably. It is easy to destroy but much harder to create as this country is finding out. We are at the whim of bankers.

 

[do_ron_ron]

Certainly not before even getting around the negotiation table.

That would be stupid.

Yes but the UK is going to have to invoke Article 50 then go through a 2 year separation procedure before they get down to negotiations. Even then I doubt they will change.

 

[Chojin]

I don't think he is, he's just highlighting that some people on both sides really didn't have a clue about the referendum if you ask me..

Well if you look at the continuity of his posts....

This message has been deleted by Rilot. Reason: Please don't call people stupid.

What about if someone is being stupid..?

My Dad has just admitted (while watching the news) that he feels stupid for voting leave... I couldn't believe my ears.

If you knew my Dad you'd know he's not one for admitting to things at all let alone something like this!

 

[do_ron_ron]

Or why we are suddenly going to massively increased demand for our stuff from outside the EU.

Or how

we are suddenly going to massively increased demand for our stuff from outside the EU

 

[datalol-jack]

Or how

I assume dowie's lining up orders as we speak.

 

[Diddums]

I assume dowie's lining up orders as we speak.

Nah. He's on another forum somewhere explaining the tax implications of importing goods from manilla via zimbabwe in an old timer registered 747 with no flight tax

 

[kitch9]

Unsure why people think we cant already trade outside the EU.

We can, but are subject to tariffs if the EU hasn't agreed anything with them. Not only are we subject to tariffs but every business has to comply with EU regulation even though the goods are going nowhere near the EU.

Essentially the EU creates it's own barriers to trade to places that aren't the EU.

 

[kitch9]

Yes but the UK is going to have to invoke Article 50 then go through a 2 year separation procedure before they get down to negotiations. Even then I doubt they will change.

Negotiations formally start upon invoking article 50.

 

[Nate--IRL--]

Negotiations formally start upon invoking article 50.

Exit negotiations start with article 50 that's all, when they complete, the Talks for the new relationship between the UK and EU can begin.

Nate

 

[do_ron_ron]

Negotiations formally start upon invoking article 50.

That is just the disentangling of Legal issues of the two parties. The negotiations for a new treaty come later.

 

[delta0]

That is just the disentangling of Legal issues of the two parties. The negotiations for a new treaty come later.

That is the negotiation for any "new" agreements. More likely they will just remove the unnecessary ones and maintain the others to create the things they want. If the process is already in place then they aren't going to remove it to put it back again. So I doubt any of the agreements are going to be new.

 

[do_ron_ron]

That is the negotiation for any new agreements. More likely they will just remove the unnecessary ones and maintain the others to create the things they want. If the process is already in place then they aren't going to remove it to put it back again.

This was on way back in the thread. An excellent view. It is about 24 mins long but well worth the effort in viewing all of it.

 

[Nate--IRL--]

That is the negotiation for any "new" agreements. More likely they will just remove the unnecessary ones and maintain the others to create the things they want. If the process is already in place then they aren't going to remove it to put it back again. So I doubt any of the agreements are going to be new.

Afraid not, the Article 50 negotiations are to sever ties completely, but amicably and cleanly. Their purpose is purely to split the 2 entities with the least amount of damage to both parties.

Once fully detached from the EU, new negotiations can begin.

EDIT:- Personally I believe this is the reason for hesitancy in invoking Article 50, it is irrevocable.

Nate

 

[delta0]

This was on way back in the thread. An excellent view. It is about 24 mins long but well worth the effort in viewing all of it.

They won't be gaining any agreements so it's not necessary as I said. Both the UK and EU want a seemless transition. Even the EU said this is the way it will be done! They were talking about the UK joining the EEA and this could be done formally as soon as article 50 was enacted.

Afraid not, the Article 50 negotiations are to sever ties completely, but amicably and cleanly. Their purpose is purely to split the 2 entities with the least amount of damage to both parties.

Once fully detached from the EU, new negotiations can begin.

EDIT:- Personally I believe this is the reason for hesitancy in invoking Article 50, it is irrevocable.

Nate

That is very much the purpose of article 50. However the EU and UK will seamlessly transition rather than stopping and doing nothing for a couple of years. Already mentioned today the UK can formally start the process to join the EEA as soon as article 50 enacted.

 

[Nate--IRL--]

They won't be gaining any agreements so it's not necessary as I said. Both the UK and EU want a seemless transition. Even the EU said this is the way it will be done! They were talking about the UK joining the EEA and this could be done formally as soon as article 50 was enacted.



That is very much the purpose of article 50. However the EU and UK will seamlessly transition rather than stopping and doing nothing for a couple of years. Already mentioned today the UK can formally start the process to join the EEA as soon as article 50 enacted.

Maybe so, I probably have the details wrong then. However the above depends on the good will of 27 other nations to go smoothly. Good luck

And just for clarity... article 50 ... and an annotated breakdown of Article 50

1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.

2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.

3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.

4. For the purposes of paragraphs 2 and 3, the member of the European Council or of the Council representing the withdrawing Member State shall not participate in the discussions of the European Council or Council or in decisions concerning it.

A qualified majority shall be defined in accordance with Article 238(3)(b) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.

5. If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49.

Nate

 

[Destination]

IJust one example, Ozzy said we'd have an immediate emergency budget and taxes would instantly rise, now it's 'maybe'.. and reading the BBC article, actually at the moment, despite the EU being reasonably hardline, the government can ride through this if we don't get mass migration of businesses..

What you are saying is not wrong, but for the next minimum six months, there will be no inwards or internal investment into Britain due to the uncertainty.
Then we start to see the patterns emerge, and frankly given article 50 allows 2 years, I foresee two entire years of negotiations, as these things always take the maximum length of time allowed, and a deal is always done at the final moment.
So we might be in for a medium term period of uncertainty, not good either.

 

[Mulder]

Tbf, Leave camp's Minford to nationalist ratio isn't encouraging, never was.

Minford is absolutely spot on. Ever see him when he presented to the EU select committee? He owned them.

I also take from your post that "nationalist" is necessarily a derogatory term. Care to tell that to the 1.5m Scots who voted for the Scottish Nationalist Party in the last general election? Or is nationalism only negative when it's English? Of course the actual definition of nationalism is "patriotic feeling, principles, or efforts" (or in other words, being proud of your country) but it's been hijacked (partially by Guardian reading liberal elitists) to mean racist/xenophobic etc, but primarily in relation to England, as it's not viewed so negatively elsewhere. Crazy.

But it isn't in the campaigners' mits now, and they've shafted Farage and will hopefully backtrack even more once the cost to benefit ratio kicks in proper in September. Nonetheless, it's down to whatever the Tory party comes up with, and that's that. Still plenty of banter to be had and many things are up in the air, hence much protest and speculation.

Most of the old arguments are still around for the same reason too, which are more on the line of left and right divisions over 'red tape'. Indeed, plenty argue that the barriers are there for a reason and laissez-faire markets are what's out-of-date, especially against a background of potential cuts and tax rises. And so these threads keep multiplying by the day, lol.

I'm not sure the left/right are split over EU "red tape" - it by its very nature is excessive/unnecessary and as the Government admits, costs us billions of pounds annually and stifles wealth creation.

All the remain camp talk of Britain now being more "inward looking" is pretty ironic seeing as the EU customs unions is exactly that - an inward looking, anti-competitive, out-of date, wasteful, protectionist block.

The EU needs to change, and Brexit was hopefully the start of many countries saying "we agree" and the EU moving away from a centralist, ever larger, power hungry unelected bureaucracy to a true collaboration of sovereign nation states.