Brexit thread - what happens next

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Glaucus said:
which is a massive issue in a two party system like we have.
not that I think GE is likely, but if it does lets hope LD can replace labour as the 2nd main party.
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I think LD have caused far too much damage to their credibility with the electorate. Many of their voters are still upset with them over jumping into bed with the Tories and haven't forgiven them yet.

Unfortunately I can see a surge in UKIP support coming along with a fractured Labour party. Unless, that is, Corbyn can pull off a miracle.

The trouble is, who would replace him? There does not appear to be anyone of note and certainly nobody you would tout to be PM and a national leader on an international stage.

Like it or not, the Tories do seem to hold the best hand at the moment, and vicariously the best chances.
 
datalol-jack said:
See above, my other post before the one you've quoted. They will be gunning for compromises, and some thought it already being put towards a plan, but confidence is low and the leadership fight is going to be interesting. We really burned the house down at the tactically worst time possible, and Farage ranting in the EUP isn't doing many people favours. Our only real ally left is, ironically, Germany, and contrary to the tinfoils on here -- they cannot filibuster 26 other vetoes, deliver insta-treaty change and do us many favours.

We'll see how it pans out. Just hope we can get EEA, keep Scotland on these grounds and restart infrastructure investment to start settling the protest voters, clamouring for a larger piece of the pie.
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I think the EU know what Farage is by now.
 
datalol-jack said:
See above, my other post before the one you've quoted. They will be gunning for compromises, and some thought it already being put towards a plan, but confidence is low and the leadership fight is going to be interesting. We really burned the house down at the tactically worst time possible, and Farage ranting in the EUP isn't doing many people favours. Our only real ally left is, ironically, Germany, and contrary to the tinfoils on here -- they cannot filibuster 26 other vetoes, deliver insta-treaty change and do us many favours.

We'll see how it pans out. Just hope we can get EEA, keep Scotland on these grounds and restart infrastructure investment to start settling the protest voters, clamouring for a larger piece of the pie.
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Well yes people will be aiming for compromises, that was my point - the idea that it will definitely just be EEA with freedom of movement is a bit dubious at this point as the UK position is going to have immigration as one of their key areas.

As for Farage - he's completely irrelevant, he had his moment and unless there is a general election (unlikely) and a minority Tory govt relying on UKIP support then I doubt Farage is going to have anything to do with negotiations.
 
Mr Jack said:
Right, but of 19 looked at so far, 18 have had a job outside politics. Seems quite likely he's wrong, doesn't it?
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That comment is silly to begin with. Westminster has barely a person with a scientific mind to rub against, and most are just straight out of the PPE factory, especially if they get anywhere near power. Lords is where we get our people with 'proper jobs'. In Europe the whole style is different.
 
LOAM said:
So what exactly is "leave" bringing us then? What are we actually going to gain from all this other than less control over our own borders?

I am at a complete loss tbh.
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We can create our own laws for most things, which is great. For that alone it's worth it.

We will be self governed without the EU meddling.

I think single market access and self governance probably suits Britain best of all the touted solutions so far.

Ideally, we could go back in time and the whole referendum would never have happened until both sides had real plans going forward.
 
Arthur Hucksake said:
We can create our own laws for most things, which is great. For that alone it's worth it.

We will be self governed without the EU meddling.

I think single market access and self governance probably suits Britain best of all the touted solutions so far.

Ideally, we could go back in time and the whole referendum would never have happened until both sides had real plans going forward.
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With freedom of movement right?
 
dowie said:
Well yes people will be aiming for compromises, that was my point - the idea that it will definitely just be EEA with freedom of movement is a bit dubious at this point as the UK position is going to have immigration as one of their key areas.

As for Farage - he's completely irrelevant, he had his moment and unless there is a general election (unlikely) and a minority Tory govt relying on UKIP support then I doubt Farrage is going to have anything to do with negotiations.
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I too think it'll come down to a battle of full freedom of movement vs its watered down alternatives, particularly with the core-EU group and the Eastern Europeans. Though if people expect some silly points-system to come out of it, or 0 people for X years, they will be very disappointed; and I won't be surprised if we essentially get the same thing with a conditional (again) break being called something different, e.g. Hannan's freedom of movement of labour/workers. But London, as always, remains a higher priority.
 
Rilot said:
I have to say though, I'm at a loss as to who in the Labour party actually voted for Corbyn. I work in a school and all of the teachers I've spoken to (who you would expect to be quite left-leaning) can't stand him and think he has to go.
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Loads of people who like bandwagons and voting on them?

I am rather concerned about the future of the UK. The only version of out I supported (in principle) was an EFTA style arrangement. But this is looking to be very unlikely if the next leader sets a line on free movement of people. :(
 
dowie said:
we've not even started negotiations and you think it is going to go completely towards the EU's terms... no movement from them at all... that isn't really how negotiations tend to work - there is usually some form of compromise reached.
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However the compromise tends to be in the favour of the stronger party (in this case probably the EU) unless they've got a reason to be nice about it (which they don't).

I suspect we'll end up with the short end of the stick as we've thrown away a reasonably influential position within the EU, and the likes of Farage have annoyed them, which combined with their own internal issue means that they don't have any major reason to compromise too much in our favour.
 
Trifid said:
Loads of people who like bandwagons and voting on them?

I am rather concerned about the future of the UK. The only version of out I supported (in principle) was an EFTA style arrangement. But this is looking to be very unlikely if the next leader sets a line on free movement of people. :(
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Another small problem with the EFTA arrangement is the bilateral cluster**** of it all -- it'll be costly and laborious as it is for the Swiss (though Switzerland never minded bureaucracy as such). Again eating into those promised money pots for the NHS, hospitals, infrastructure, science, regions, farmers, infinite fish, etc.
 
Six6siX said:
Aren't there still laws/regs that apply to the single market that we wouldn't have a say over?
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In the EU, all regulations apply.

When the UK wants to trade with the USA, or Japan or wherever, those companies have to make sure their products and services comply with the regulations in that country. So in whatever model we choose outside the EU, trade with the EU will still be subject to EU rules. The vast majority of our businesses, don't trade with the EU.
 
dowie said:
well we can let the other 3 take the, now damaged, big lumbering ship on their own course... and have fun on our rather nicer and more nimble yacht

(if we're going for silly analogies)
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I have added some more fantasy to his fantasy above :)
 
joeyjojo said:
That's what we had!!!
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And we could deport them after 6 months, if they couldn't demonstrate how they will support themselves, cover health insurance and had a prospect of a job or a place in education. It's all in the original treaties, not even a special deal -- we enforced it backhandedly for years though (and on the cheap), hence the chip people have in their anecdotes.
 
Cern said:
You're no fun, someone sink your yacht? ;)
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Got surrounded by Somali pirates which strengthened the resolve of some of the crew to leave the big ship that kept attracting them, in fact some on the big EU ship actively encouraged the Somail pirates to come on board, claimign that priates were welcome :D
 
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Arthur Hucksake said:
We can create our own laws for most things, which is great. For that alone it's worth it.

We will be self governed without the EU meddling.

I think single market access and self governance probably suits Britain best of all the touted solutions so far.

Ideally, we could go back in time and the whole referendum would never have happened until both sides had real plans going forward.
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Self governance is something that I remain skeptical about until we know the details but its highly likely that we will initially roll 100% of EU law into our own post exit for time constraints alone. Many of European laws make absolute sense anyway, why would we want to drop them? It has to be said, we only ever hear about the daft ones, which if we had representatives who actually turned up we could have probably prevented anyway. Regardless, look at the EEA and you'll see that we would have to accept many of the new EU laws anyway.

The only actual positive I can see in this is fishing quotas, IIRC are not part of an EEA agreement, but it seems like we are wrecking everything for an improvement in one industry, still confused.
 
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