Brexit thread - what happens next

Status
Not open for further replies.
Nate--IRL-- said:
Maybe so, I probably have the details wrong then. However the above depends on the good will of 27 other nations to go smoothly. Good luck :D

And just for clarity... article 50 ... and an annotated breakdown of Article 50

Nate
Click to expand...

I'm not sure even the EU think the UK will initiate article 50 so it may be completely pointless.
 
kitch9 said:
We can, but are subject to tariffs if the EU hasn't agreed anything with them. Not only are we subject to tariffs but every business has to comply with EU regulation even though the goods are going nowhere near the EU.
Click to expand...

This is misleading on the first count, and mostly wrong on the second. The EU does not apply tariffs on trade leaving the EU, those tariffs are applied by the countries we're exporting to. On the second, goods sold to markets overseas only need to meet the regulations of those markets, only those regulations that apply to workers rights, health and safety, and environmental issues in the manufacture would influence any company trading overseas.

All Brexit is going to change is that we'll lose our existing trade deals and so face tariffs on much more of our exports, lose chunks of our service sector, and have regulations on workers rights, etc. under UK control only.
 
Arthur Hucksake said:
Makes sense given the fact land prices will fall and non-EU business can become more straight forward for components manufacturing.
Click to expand...

How? Doubly so, give the major markets for components manufacture for us is, oh yes, the EU which we've just voted to trash our trading relationship with.
 
Mr Jack said:
This is misleading on the first count, and mostly wrong on the second. The EU does not apply tariffs on trade leaving the EU, those tariffs are applied by the countries we're exporting to. On the second, goods sold to markets overseas only need to meet the regulations of those markets, only those regulations that apply to workers rights, health and safety, and environmental issues in the manufacture would influence any company trading overseas.

All Brexit is going to change is that we'll lose our existing trade deals and so face tariffs on much more of our exports, lose chunks of our service sector, and have regulations on workers rights, etc. under UK control only.
Click to expand...

They will join EFTA and then also gain the extra benefit of being able to arrange their own FTA with out of eu countries. This means zero impact and likely some gain due to new market growth.
 
Mulder said:
Minford is absolutely spot on. Ever see him when he presented to the EU select committee? He owned them.

I also take from your post that "nationalist" is necessarily a derogatory term. Care to tell that to the 1.5m Scots who voted for the Scottish Nationalist Party in the last general election? Or is nationalism only negative when it's English? Of course the actual definition of nationalism is "patriotic feeling, principles, or efforts" (or in other words, being proud of your country) but it's been hijacked (partially by Guardian reading liberal elitists) to mean racist/xenophobic etc, but primarily in relation to England, as it's not viewed so negatively elsewhere. Crazy.
.
Click to expand...

The Scottish National Party are a left wing liberal party whose ideals are similar to those of other left wing groups such as the LibDems while the UKIP party types seem to be inherently nationalistic.
 
Mr Jack said:
This is misleading on the first count, and mostly wrong on the second. The EU does not apply tariffs on trade leaving the EU, those tariffs are applied by the countries we're exporting to. On the second, goods sold to markets overseas only need to meet the regulations of those markets, only those regulations that apply to workers rights, health and safety, and environmental issues in the manufacture would influence any company trading overseas.

All Brexit is going to change is that we'll lose our existing trade deals and so face tariffs on much more of our exports, lose chunks of our service sector, and have regulations on workers rights, etc. under UK control only.
Click to expand...

All business has to currently comply with EU regulation as an EU member even if isn't leaving the country.

As a business owner who doesn't export some of the stuff you come up against is a complete nightmare.

You can't even put a trailer on a van without masses of form filling and huge expense.
 
Nate--IRL-- said:
Maybe so, I probably have the details wrong then. However the above depends on the good will of 27 other nations to go smoothly. Good luck :D

And just for clarity... article 50 ... and an annotated breakdown of Article 50

Nate
Click to expand...

The negotiations likely wont include all 27 EU member states, the main ones will be Germany, France and Netherlands along with Tusk, Junckers and Shultz. The other members will just be expected to go along with it.
 
Sturgeon swanning about in Brussels like she's the PM, I believe she's already been told Scotland can't remain in the EU if the UK withdraw because they're are no partial withdrawals.

She's just using the whole brexit thing as a stage to further her political career, pathetic.
 
norm said:
Sturgeon swanning about in Brussels like she's the PM, I believe she's already been told Scotland can't remain in the EU if the UK withdraw because they're are no partial withdrawals.

She's just using the whole brexit thing as a stage to further her political career, pathetic.
Click to expand...

Wow, Not seen anyone else do that :)
 
do_ron_ron said:
This was on way back in the thread. An excellent view. It is about 24 mins long but well worth the effort in viewing all of it.

Click to expand...

I have just sat through it, there are a few good points, but it is very biased in the same way I found Minters trade deal viewpoint.

For example he says the biggest question it the 2 years will be what to do with the 3 million EU migrants in the UK and the 2 Million UK migrants in the EU because it'll take 10 years to reach a comprehensive agreement..

This is ridiculous.. he is implying that we'll have 5 million people in some limbo status for 10 years which sounds rather negative.. However, do you not think that the status of Migrants could be very easily sorted in the initial two years? We've already had plenty of suggestion all round that existing migrants will just stay as is, and no doubt will just follow the law of the land they are in as they have the past god knows how long.

This bit I'm not even sure about either, at the start he says we make our own laws and only are influenced by the EU law when parliament expressly instruct us to and so we are wholly a sovereign state, then he turns around and says that if we leave the EU we have to rip up all our laws and review everything on the notion that there is so much EU influence in our law.. I don't really understand this, surely we've evolved our law influenced by the EU, but the reality is, most people are relatively happy with the 'internal' laws of the country, why do we have remove and review every single law ever passed whilst we've been in the EU?, could we simply not 'freeze' the internal laws as they are today, and just review the laws that deal with the interface with Europe? Sure it'll all take time, I get that, but its not like you switch instantaneously to a lawless state or anything?

I think he is a clever guy, and no doubt is giving an insight in to the processes so I like the factual parts, but their is a lot of conjecture and inference of negativity..

He even recites JC's line on the "legal system having a short sharp shock, and workers and consumers rights may be deeply affected.." Again, that sounds terrible with 'may be deeply affected'.. that just means 'potentially, although no one knows, it might change, or obviously it might not, no one knows'..
 
Mulder said:
Minford is absolutely spot on. Ever see him when he presented to the EU select committee? He owned them.
Click to expand...

He couldn't own most of his academic and industry opponents, for starters, and even people in his camp disagree over the free-market reforms and assumptions he wishes to see bear fruit. Textbook economics can only take one so far, and he's going by the book and crossing his fingers. Nor, sadly for Leavers, is he yet in any position to influence policy. If you think there's appetite for Thatcherism max, you're misjudging the public mood as much as Corbyn is misjudging his breadth of support.

But as you're a fan, I won't labour the point.

Mulder said:
I also take from your post that "nationalist" is necessarily a derogatory term.
Click to expand...

I'd give it 7/10. Especially if they go for imperial nostalgia, wild theories of cultural assimilation, violent segregation, repatriation or encouragement of social disorder with silly rhetoric.

Mulder said:
Care to tell that to the 1.5m Scots who voted for the Scottish nationalist Party in the last general election? Or is Nationalism only negative when it's English? Of course the actual definition of nationalism is "patriotic feeling, principles, or efforts" (or in other words, being proud of your country) but it's been hijacked (partially by Guardian reading liberal elitists) to mean racist/xenophobic etc, but primarily in relation to England, as it's not viewed so negatively elsewhere. Crazy.
Click to expand...

If they start encouraging an infantile worldview, two-bit thuggery and proudly wave jingoistic willies at the world? Sure. I would be quite vocal about them too, but they don't. Are there are some extremists among the cyber nats? Yep. Is the party mostly just New Labour in Tartan with far from nationalistic social policies? Yep, certainly no English Democrats, Liberty GB, BNP, EDL, UKIP or other high calibre nuttery we witness south of the border feeding off each other.

And English nationalism, particularly when its construed along the lines of white and nativist prerogative, has a rather more troubled history. Only a rather sheltered fantasist isn't capable of seeing its negative and largely emotional effects of clouded judgement and social discrimination.

Indeed there is a simple rule of thumb for me: if they love their people and their country -- fine; if they tell you they are better than others because of where on the planet they happened to be birthed, and blame all the world's ills on them, with no other distinguishing features or contributions to their name -- they can jog on.


Mulder said:
I'm not sure the left/right are split over EU "red tape" - it by its very nature is excessive/unnecessary and as the Government admits, costs us billions of pounds annually and stifles wealth creation.

All the remain camp talk of Britain now being more "inward looking" is pretty ironic seeing as the EU customs unions is exactly that - an inward looking, anti-competitive, out-of date, wasteful, protectionist block.

The EU needs to change, and Brexit was hopefully the start of many countries saying "we agree" and the EU moving away from a centralist, ever larger, power hungry unelected bureaucracy to a true collaboration of sovereign nation states.
Click to expand...

Oh, silly things like not wanting ludicrous deregulation, better working conditions, health and safety, environmental protections, consumer assurances, standards, and the list continues. In Minford's world of perfect competition -- most of this goes, and people currently heading into power are only a few steps removed from him on their economic thinking. Hence the obvious fight, which Labour would be fighting if they could agree amongst themselves to be a competent opposition.

And as for how the EU developed: thank France for most of its inward looking measures; should have been there earlier and tried harder. But this aspect of reform from within is moot now.
 
norm said:
Sturgeon swanning about in Brussels like she's the PM, I believe she's already been told Scotland can't remain in the EU if the UK withdraw because they're are no partial withdrawals.

She's just using the whole brexit thing as a stage to further her political career, pathetic.
Click to expand...

Apparantly Spain have already said they will veto Scotland joining the EU.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top Bottom