Brexit thread - what happens next

[FoxEye]

its hardly remianers finding new ways.

according to law experts that is what the law in the uk says.

and why, probably simple fact he didn't think leave would win and so didn't get guidance on the legal ramifications. which adds to the whole stupidity of the situation. as no one from any side actually planned, looked into or did anything in preparation.

he also said he wouldn't step down, so lied about that as well.

I think everybody by now has realised, that the potential self-harm for any political entity triggering Article 50 is massively greater than the actual self-harm from ignoring the referendum result.

You might annoy ~50% of the electorate by ignoring the ref. Even some remainers will react angrily against the Tories, because it was their choice to call the referendum, and in thier eyes none of this was ever necessary.

The potential self-harm of Brexit will become reality if the economy does perform badly. Many "leave" voters will decide they'd been lied to, and will be angry. Remain voters will obviously be angry. You suspect the people who would still be happy to have left would then be tiny.

I wonder if, right now, talks are being held with the EU along the lines of "Don't be too hasty - this might not happen".

 

[jonneymendoza]

Centre-right really, they are the conservative party without Blairites.

They are far right imo

 

[UTmaniac]

Exactly. What if there was a referendum where 52% voted we should invade France?

If the rules said that if a majority of entitled voters said invade, then yes, we invade France.

A majority of entitled voters said we should leave the EU. By ~1 million, with ~33 million voting.

Only ~11 million voted the Conservatives in the last GE.

 

[Jono8]

If the rules said that if a majority of entitled voters said invade, then yes, we invade France.

A majority of entitled voters said we should leave the EU.

But that is what we keep trying to say. Those are not the rules (laws).

The referendum was non binding.

 

[NerveAgent]

Sounds like remain voters will push for anything at all that can result in a50 not being started.

Its not like Cameron has stopped it from happening is it?

Leavers are on getting their knickers in a twist because a) they are wondering if anyone is actually going to have the testicles to do it and b) if they do, they wont have anyone else to blame.

 

[Arazi]

You really do talk absolute undiluted tripe on a constant basis, Glaucus.

The political process has never been any different... scaremongering, playing on fears, and leveraging popular feeling to get votes. It was a 100% democratic process, whether you agree with the outcome or not.

Exactly, and the lies from both sides will keep coming and will come some more for a long time to come.

But it was still a 100% democratic vote, leave won and the process should have started when it was promised.

 

[UTmaniac]

But that is what we keep trying to say. Those are not the rules (laws).

The referendum was non binding.

But Cameron stated otherwise, as the current PM, when he announced the referendum in (Feb?)..

 

[Fuzz]

The acid test is whether future governments will continue to allow in influx of unskilled workers to drive wages down.

I suspect they will, because corporate interests always win out in the end. And Labour are just as pro-corporate as the Tories. It was Labour who signed the deal with Vodafone allowing them to pay no tax at all.

If businesses want low wages, any future govt will continue to allow as many unskilled labourers in as they are told to.

Work colleauges missus works high up in vodafone and they have said they are moving HQ to Europe

 

[Arazi]

no it was not 100% democratic in the slightest, and pointing out other undemocratic process doesn't lend this one support.

Why wasn't it 100%, because the lies only came from the leave side?

 

[Jono8]

But Cameron stated otherwise, as the current PM, when he announced the referendum in (Feb?)..

So what? He can come out and state that he shagged a unicorn on the moon last night but it won't mean it is true.

 

[Demon]

The country is broken..

if the referendum is ignored, I can't think what the political repercussions will be and as a Leave voter, I would be exceedingly angry at the government..

If the referendum is upheld, then I imagine the opposite for the remain camp, exceedingly angry at the government..

It's not use us blaming each other, the real villain in this is the government, the referendum should never have been called, but clearly in hindsight, with this growing 'divide' it's probably best we sort it out head on rather than sticking our heads in the sand and hoping it will go away..

 

[UTmaniac]

So what? He can come out and state that he shagged a unicorn on the moon last night but it won't mean it is true.

His personal life is no interest of me.

What he does regarding his job of PM does.

 

[Jono8]

His personal life is no interest of me.

What he does regarding his job of PM does.

You probably don't but I am making the point that being PM does not make him into a character from 'The Invention of Lying"

 

[Greebo]

You realise that the leave camp have no idea what they actually want right and still don't have a plan for how far out we are leaving them EU. Lets assume that the referendum is legally binding and we are going to leave. That "coward" bought us precious time to prepare ourselves with the man power necessary to undertake this mammoth task as well as time to get a plan in place.

Another way to look at it is he has potentially given the remain camp some hope as the next PM can ignore the referendum.

Exactly. The leave campaign were a bunch of like minded people who want everything from staying in the EU trade market and full freedom of movement but out of the EU to a complete break, no access to the eu trade market and just WTO terms.

Even within the leave voters there will be people not happy with either extreme as it wasnt what they were voting for.

Already some leave voters are saying on here, if we push A50 and sign up to EEA and full freedom of movement then it will be a cop out and there will be blood spilt. Yet others say they voted leave not on immigration (so would be happy with free movement?) but just on sovereignty grounds.

So difficult for any government to decide what to do as there are so many options. Leave isnt just leave.

Its going to be a compromise which will annoy lots of people. If its full out of the trade agreement then obviously all remain and some leave voters wont be happy. If its just sovereignty out then some leave voters who voted for controlled immigration wont be happy.

Its all about deciding now which choice is best for the country and annoys the least amount of people.

 

[Arazi]

When you say incorrectly do you mean innit saying what you think I am or what you want me to say?

Do you honestly believe that putting '£350m a week' and the NHS badge on a bus isn't intentionally misleading?

Yes it is misleading, and i have said my views on it in previous threads\posts, and the remain camps information was also misleading.

 

[Greebo]

But Cameron stated otherwise, as the current PM, when he announced the referendum in (Feb?)..

I've never seen DC or anybody ever say the referendum was going to be legally binding. The Scottish independence one was though.

 

[V F]

The country is broken..

if the referendum is ignored, I can't think what the political repercussions will be and as a Leave voter, I would be exceedingly angry at the government..

If the referendum is upheld, then I imagine the opposite for the remain camp, exceedingly angry at the government..

It's not use us blaming each other, the real villain in this is the government, the referendum should never have been called, but clearly in hindsight, with this growing 'divide' it's probably best we sort it out head on rather than sticking our heads in the sand and hoping it will go away..

Government do not want to sort things. The Government were happy being part of the Union so they can pick up nice big wages doing nothing with no responsibility.

Now they're freaked out they have responsibility and have to carry out or try and stall procedures.
Government loves sticking their heads in the sand hoping the next big major story arrives taking the heat away from it. Or they go into recess hoping all is forgotten by the time they come back after the summer holidays.

I'm always amazed the trust some people really hold in Government.

 

[Greebo]

Exactly, and the lies from both sides will keep coming and will come some more for a long time to come.

But it was still a 100% democratic vote, leave won and the process should have started when it was promised.

Genuine Q. What does "leave" mean to you? What part of all the leave options would satisfy you?

 

[Hitman_Leon]

Genuine Q. What does "leave" mean to you? What part of all the leave options would satisfy you?

And to add to that, what group would you blame if it all went pear shaped and the bottom dropped out of the economy?

 

[Greebo]

Not sure if this has been asked.

We all know that in his speech after the vote Cameron could have said tough, i can legally ignore the result, but he didn't and passed the buck.

The thing i am unsure of is this,

Whoever is the next PM, can he or she do the same thing, as in legally ignore the result, or was only Cameron allowed to do that as the current serving PM.

No, even the new PM cant invoke it. It has to be passed in parliament. So both of the main candidates saying they will invoke it are promises they cant keep.

They can push for it and the whips can try and make all Tory Mps vote for it but no guarantee the house will pass it. Then they can say, it was my wish but what can I do, it got voted out?