Brexit thread - what happens next

Status
Not open for further replies.
Here is my Brexit Plan.....

Commonwealth focussed foreign aid budget
A re-jig of the foreign aid budget to prioritise the poorer Commonwealth members over non-members.

....which greases the wheels for a.....

Commonwealth Free Trade Agreement
Tariff free trade with all countries within the commonwealth across all markets (Free movement of goods/not people).

...which puts us in a the best position to negotiate for....

Free trade with EU Single Market across all sectors
Tariff free trade with all countries within the EU single across all markets. No Free movement of people (trade-off will be above, instant tariff free trade with entire commonwealth).

I would also....

Secure EU Nationals’ future
Guarantee indefinite right to remain to EU nationals who entered the country before 01/07/2016. Unconditional citizenship offered to that group.

...and...

Secure UK Nationals living in the EU’s future
It is unlikely UK nationals will be expelled from the EU countries they currently reside in,but the UK government will cover all the extra costs for UK nationals living in the EU for the next 10 years should any occur after negotiations.

Finally I would...

Get Scotland/NI back onside
Give both countries (and Wales) complete control over local taxation laws, control over all areas (outside freedom of movement and adoption of the Euro) that the EU could otherwise dictate. Promote separate agreements on trade between a non-EU England with the EU and a non-EU Scotland with the EU.
 
Last edited:
Locky said:
Article 50 is never going to be triggered to be honest.
Click to expand...

unlikely, all the Tory leader candidates are committed to invoking it, unless you are saying they are lying ?.............

or you believe there will be a snap GE prior to invoking it and a party is voted in whose manifesto is based on us staying in the EU, which won't happen because once the new PM is selected there is no chance they will call a snap GE.
 
wildman said:
unlikely, all the Tory leader candidates are committed to invoking it, unless you are saying they are lying ?.............

or you believe there will be a snap GE prior to invoking it and a party is voted in whose manifesto is based on us staying in the EU, which won't happen because once the new PM is selected there is no chance they will call a snap GE.
Click to expand...

You never know man. Politicians and honesty do not go together.
 
wildman said:
unlikely, all the Tory leader candidates are committed to invoking it, unless you are saying they are lying ?.............

or you believe there will be a snap GE prior to invoking it and a party is voted in whose manifesto is based on us staying in the EU, which won't happen because once the new PM is selected there is no chance they will call a snap GE.
Click to expand...

Or they delay invoking it - claiming economic factors not being right or something - until 2020.
 
Rilot said:
Or they delay invoking it - claiming economic factors not being right or something - until 2020.
Click to expand...

You can forget anyone but May or Leadsom. Both have said Brexit is Brexit.

The latter will be utterly devoted to making it happen ASAP and the former will have to ignore massive pressures not to do so. Tories voted 58/42 to Leave so it would be unquestionable for a future Tory leader to deny it before 2020.
 
Last edited:
Watching this debate on Sky News and it's like Brexit bingo from both sides.

Country is at breaking point
London bubble
Opportunities lost
Financial stability
Scare tactics
Not listening to the common man
Doesn't make you a racist
NHS only struggling because of the Tories
 
Kinda crazy to think May is the moderate in this :) In my opinion with who ever becomes PM, if Article 50 is not invoked soon after, as in days after, a Snap Election is on the cards.

Nate
 
Nate--IRL-- said:
Kinda crazy to think May is the moderate in this :) In my opinion with who ever becomes PM, if Article 50 is not invoked soon after, as in days after, a Snap Election is on the cards.

Nate
Click to expand...

If there was a snap GE surely the Tories would win, after all they gave us the much needed referendum & we got the right result & Labour are so knackered atm moment they not worth voting for.

Libdems don't matter.
 
wildman said:
unlikely, all the Tory leader candidates are committed to invoking it, unless you are saying they are lying ?.............

or you believe there will be a snap GE prior to invoking it and a party is voted in whose manifesto is based on us staying in the EU, which won't happen because once the new PM is selected there is no chance they will call a snap GE.
Click to expand...

All Tory leaders may wish to invoke it but the majority of MP's in total do not. This could easily lead to a vote of no confidence from the opposition (If labour manage to get their act together) with a 2/3rds majority of the house of commons forcing them to have one.

After the 2010 general election, the coalition government enacted the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 which set fixed term parliaments of five years. Thus the next general election was held on 7 May 2015, with subsequent elections held every five years thereafter on the first Thursday in May. However the Act also contains provisions for Parliament to be dissolved and an early election held if no government can be formed within 14 days after a vote of no confidence in the government. Similarly, the Act allows for an election to be triggered by a vote of two-thirds of MPs in the House of Commons calling for one.
Click to expand...

Based on the information from the BBC on MP's declared referendum stance you end up with 479 against 158 in favour of Remain (approximately 75% which is greater than the 66% necessary for a vote of no confidence). It seems highly likely that either:

A) Referring to the "legal" challenges mentioned earlier in the thread the new PM may have to try pass article 50 before parliament before enacting it. Likely to lead to a refusal.

B) An intention to trigger article 50 immediately is also possibly grounds for the opposition to vote in no confidence. Based on the previous point of which they would insist that the rest of the House of commons should be allowed a vote on such a critical matter.

Following either scenario it is likely that a new General Election will be held so that the Tory / UKIP parties can gain a larger majority to pass Article 50 or the opposition to Brexit parties gain a greater share and evidently we remain.
 
estebanrey said:
Here is my Brexit Plan.....

Finally I would...

Get Scotland/NI back onside
Give both countries (and Wales) complete control over local taxation laws, control over all areas (outside freedom of movement and adoption of the Euro) that the EU could otherwise dictate. Promote separate agreements on trade between a non-EU England with the EU and a non-EU Scotland with the EU.
Click to expand...

Dear god NO have you seen the muppets that we have as MLA's in N.I the last thing you want to do is give them more power. If any thing use credit to take power away from them so things can start moving again
 
estebanrey said:
Here is my Brexit Plan.....

Commonwealth focussed foreign aid budget
A re-jig of the foreign aid budget to prioritise the poorer Commonwealth members over non-members.

....which greases the wheels for a.....

Commonwealth Free Trade Agreement
Tariff free trade with all countries within the commonwealth across all markets (Free movement of goods/not people).

...which puts us in a the best position to negotiate for....

Free trade with EU Single Market across all sectors
Tariff free trade with all countries within the EU single across all markets. No Free movement of people (trade-off will be above, instant tariff free trade with entire commonwealth).

I would also....

Secure EU Nationals’ future
Guarantee indefinite right to remain to EU nationals who entered the country before 01/07/2016. Unconditional citizenship offered to that group.

...and...

Secure UK Nationals living in the EU’s future
It is unlikely UK nationals will be expelled from the EU countries they currently reside in,but the UK government will cover all the extra costs for UK nationals living in the EU for the next 10 years should any occur after negotiations.

Finally I would...

Get Scotland/NI back onside
Give both countries (and Wales) complete control over local taxation laws, control over all areas (outside freedom of movement and adoption of the Euro) that the EU could otherwise dictate. Promote separate agreements on trade between a non-EU England with the EU and a non-EU Scotland with the EU.
Click to expand...

Are you studying/planning to get into politics?
 
treble202016 said:
If there was a snap GE surely the Tories would win, after all they gave us the much needed referendum & we got the right result & Labour are so knackered atm moment they not worth voting for.

Libdems don't matter.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I doubt it would be called if they felt otherwise, labour are a shambles right now. LibDems I can see doing quite well, as will the SNP.

Nate
 
Mr C said:
Based on the information from the BBC on MP's declared referendum stance you end up with 479 against 158 in favour of Remain (approximately 75% which is greater than the 66% necessary for a vote of no confidence). It seems highly likely that either:

A) Referring to the "legal" challenges mentioned earlier in the thread the new PM may have to try pass article 50 before parliament before enacting it. Likely to lead to a refusal.

B) An intention to trigger article 50 immediately is also possibly grounds for the opposition to vote in no confidence. Based on the previous point of which they would insist that the rest of the House of commons should be allowed a vote on such a critical matter.

Following either scenario it is likely that a new General Election will be held so that the Tory / UKIP parties can gain a larger majority to pass Article 50 or the opposition to Brexit parties gain a greater share and evidently we remain.
Click to expand...

it isn't likely at all, just looking at the numbers in favor of remain then assuming they'd rebel against the government after a referendum in which over half the country voted leave is flawed. Not to mention a fair few of them from the Tory side wouldn't have exactly been EU fundamentalists... so take into account that some were partly leave/partly remain but decided to chose remain overall, others were a bit of both but decided to go with the govt... I think it would be a bit harder to scrape together enough to force a snap election and as far as I'm aware neither potential PM is interested in having one.

Both potential PMs are committed to triggering article 50 too. The only thing potentially acting as a stumbling block is the potential legal challenge.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top Bottom