Brexit thread - what happens next

nine_tails · 6 Jul 2016 at 17:02

Ok Ok. It was the other white people which where not born here.

Bonjour · 6 Jul 2016 at 17:03

PhysicsMan94 said:
And now Canada Life has become the sixth to freeze their property fund, not looking good for the Commercial Real Estate sector at the moment.

What did I just say...?

Bonjour · 6 Jul 2016 at 17:05

estebanrey said:
Who's lost their jobs so far and are 'market conditions' only able to forever travel one way?

David Cameron

dowie · 6 Jul 2016 at 17:06

and Chris Evans, Nigel Farage + potentially Corbyn next....

Tunney · 6 Jul 2016 at 17:10

... Roy Hodgson...

LOAM · 6 Jul 2016 at 17:11

dowie said:
we'll have to wait and see - but some sort of deal(ideally closer to EEA- than to Canada style) with concessions on freedom of movement is the first thing the UK is likely going to push for

if those talks break down and we can't get concessions then I think we'll get another referendum with the options of join the EFTA/EEA(or a swiss solution) and we concede to the EU on immigration vs leave completely and trade under WTO rules... It really isn't politically feasible for the govt to simply decide to carry on in the EEA with no concession on immigration at all (though I wouldn't personally be to fussed by it as immigration is not a priority for me) - EFTA/EEA (or a Swiss solution) is by far the most sensible option and personally what I'd like to see, the get out option for the govt if negotiations aren't progressing would be a second referendum where nearly all remain voters and a good chunk of leave voters would likely support EEA

most of this depends on who really has the power and influence over negotiation - the council or the commission... if the council(hopefully and perhaps more likely) then we could see some concessions on immigration, dismissing it as a dream is rather naive in that instance

Do we have a ballot paper big enough to deal with every flavour of Brexit?. Is it multiple choice and surely if negotiations break down to that point, is "as we are" included as an option.

I still don't believe that we stand a chance of any concession on immigration, even if the powers that be decide to even go down that route. Is it not logical to assume that after all this time in the EU and the previous discussions on immigration, if there were any concessions to be had we would know about them by now?

What are we offering to the EU today that we weren't offering them two weeks ago that will suddenly make them offer us all the benefits of being in the EU with none of (or at least a reduction in) the costs?*

If I could understand that one point I might be able to get my head round it all.

If we are able to negotiate a better deal out of the EU than we were when we were part of it, then where these amazing people and negotiations over the last 40 years?

* Bolded section not directed at you Dowie, unless you can answer it

[TW]Fox · 6 Jul 2016 at 17:12

estebanrey said:
Do you think your average Joe gives a **** that some company they've never heard of and who deal in money that doesn't physically exists have done something that has no effect on them?

Many peoples pension funds are linked to firms like this.

Which you well know, as I refuse to believe you are that ignorant.

ron3003 · 6 Jul 2016 at 17:20

PhysicsMan94 said:
And now Canada Life has become the sixth to freeze their property fund, not looking good for the Commercial Real Estate sector at the moment.

Using this map check out just how much commercial property in your area is owned by offshore trusts set up with the sole intention of avoiding paying any UK tax.
http://www.private-eye.co.uk/registry
Tell me why I should feel sorry for them?

estebanrey · 6 Jul 2016 at 17:21

[TW]Fox;29746955 said:
Many peoples pension funds are linked to firms like this.

Which you well know, as I refuse to believe you are that ignorant.

What is the direct effect of a temporary (key word) suspension on a property fund (the firm itself hasn't imploded or gone bankrupt) on my local Brickie then?

dowie · 6 Jul 2016 at 17:22

LOAM said:
Do we have a ballot paper big enough to deal with every flavour of Brexit?. Is it multiple choice and surely if negotiations break down to that point, is "as we are" included as an option.

nope I don't think there will be an option to reverse brexit - I think if they do face a brick wall with the EU on immigration and need a second referendum as a result then it will be the total out/WTO option vs some other option along the lines of EEA or a Swiss style arrangement etc..

What are we offering to the EU today that we weren't offering them two weeks ago that will suddenly make them offer us all the benefits of being in the EU with none of (or at least a reduction in) the costs?*

it is more about it being mutually beneficial to the member states that talks don't break down - the question is who really has the power in these negotiations: the council/Germany/other members wanting an orderly exit/good deal as it is in their national interests etc.. or the commission wanting to send a message, not give too much and use the UK as an example against further countries leaving as an orderly, successful Brexit represents a further threat to them and the EU as it is currently organised

If I could understand that one point I might be able to get my head round it all.

If we are able to negotiate a better deal out of the EU than we were when we were part of it, then where these amazing people and negotiations over the last 40 years?

well firstly being outside the EU is a different scenario to compromising on freedom of movement within the EU and it isn't necessarily going to be the commission pulling the strings this time but could be lead by the council/national governments with different motivations and national interests at play beyond these European ideals

* Bolded section not directed at you Dowie, unless you can answer it

I've taken a stab but I don't have a crystal ball

CapitalOne · 6 Jul 2016 at 17:22

estebanrey said:
What is the direct effect of a temporary (key word) suspension on a property fund (the firm itself hasn't imploded or gone bankrupt) on my local Brickie then?

They may get laid off as the cash flow dries up

dowie · 6 Jul 2016 at 17:25

[TW]Fox;29746955 said:
Many peoples pension funds are linked to firms like this.

Which you well know, as I refuse to believe you are that ignorant.

He's not saying he doesn't care but that this man in the street some people are so fond of attacking doesn't.

dalehitchy1 · 6 Jul 2016 at 17:27

How much of a threat is the banks leaving the UK

https://next.ft.com/content/e0a5af3a...6-a4a71e8140b0

I've just read this. As much as I hate the banks they are essential to London and to the whole of the UK economy. I presume they will most likely stay in an eea or EFTA type agreement ..... But if we fully leave?

Exactly how important are they to the UK? What effect would it have on our economy if they moved to france

Jono8 · 6 Jul 2016 at 17:28

johnloo said:
Its main land Europe that causing this mess, there were signs of a property slowdown since last year when the Chinese started having problems, brexit is just an excuse.

Oh look another one.

Dr Jack · 6 Jul 2016 at 17:29

estebanrey said:
What is the direct effect of a temporary (key word) suspension on a property fund (the firm itself hasn't imploded or gone bankrupt) on my local Brickie then?

Probably nothing. But the suspension is itself a reflection of trends which will hit your local Brickie. Expect to see a sharp fall in house building over the next few years, and a fall in house prices. Falling house prices lead mortgaged owners to invest less money in their properties, and reduce the activity of people buying houses to renovate. The same trends will manifest in commercial property, as well as a fall in Business investment in their locations. All of this leads to less work for your brickie.

The economy is connected. It's not the fund itself you need to worry about, it's the parts of the real economy it is connected to.

dowie · 6 Jul 2016 at 17:29

ron3003 said:
Using this map check out just how much commercial property in your area is owned by offshore trusts set up with the sole intention of avoiding paying any UK tax.
http://www.private-eye.co.uk/registry
Tell me why I should feel sorry for them?

you're talking about completely different things - the other poster isn't talking about off shore trusts, no one cares about offshore trusts taking losses in fact you won't even hear about it

CapitalOne · 6 Jul 2016 at 17:29

dalehitchy1 said:
How much of a threat is the banks leaving the UK

https://next.ft.com/content/e0a5af3a...6-a4a71e8140b0

I've just read this. As much as I hate the banks they are essential to London and to the whole of the UK economy. I presume they will most likely stay in an eea or EFTA type agreement ..... But if we fully leave?

Exactly how important are they to the UK? What effect would it have on our economy if they moved to france

IIRC banking sector (so not just big banks, but little ones and building socs) represents ~15% gdp

eta that may include all financial services sorry didnt look it up!

Bonjour · 6 Jul 2016 at 17:31

dalehitchy1 said:
How much of a threat is the banks leaving the UK

https://next.ft.com/content/e0a5af3a...6-a4a71e8140b0

I've just read this. As much as I hate the banks they are essential to London and to the whole of the UK economy. I presume they will most likely stay in an eea or EFTA type agreement ..... But if we fully leave?

Exactly how important are they to the UK? What effect would it have on our economy if they moved to france

They are essential to our economy as it currently is. Their departure would mean a rebalancing of the economy. My fear is that the rebalancing would be at a considerably lower level than it is presently.

B&W · 6 Jul 2016 at 17:43

Thanks to the right wing press we were told to believe the war in Iraq was just and brexit would solve all our problems.

We are sleepwalking into catastrophe. Want to take control? Let's have some petitions for inquiries into politicians lies and media spin.

LOAM · 6 Jul 2016 at 17:43

dowie said:
it is more about it being mutually beneficial to the member states that talks don't break down - the question is who really has the power in these negotiations: the council/Germany/other members wanting an orderly exit/good deal as it is in their national interests etc.. or the commission wanting to send a message, not give too much and use the UK as an example against further countries leaving as an orderly, successful Brexit represents a further threat to them and the EU as it is currently organised

My personal opinion on this is that whilst certain groups might want to make an example of us, it will actually be driven by leaders at National level with a less emotive agenda.

dowie said:
well firstly being outside the EU is a different scenario to compromising on freedom of movement within the EU and it isn't necessarily going to be the commission pulling the strings this time but could be lead by the council/national governments with different motivations and national interests at play beyond these European ideals

This though is a risky (dependent on what "you" would be happy to accept) strategy. If immigration is a sticking point then we are relying on German and French business leaders being so pro UK in terms of trade that they could persuade concession for the UK. I find that quite hard to believe really given that it would set a precedent to, if not every other country in the UE then at the least their own.

That said the noises coming out of Whitehall for the most part is that immigration wasn't a leading point of the leave campaign.

Gove tweeted yesterday (I'm sure you've all seen it)

I understand the character limit of twitter probably doesn't allow him to convey his exact thoughts but on the surface it looks like he's looking for some sort of Union within Europe to join...