Brexit thread - what happens next
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[TW]Fox;29748038 said:
with or without free movement ?
because it is not going to happen Norway style unless it is with free movement. The EU was built on 4 principles, free movement of goods, services, capital and people. You won't get to cherry pick the bits you want no matter how much people think we can.
![[TW]Fox](/data/man-of-honor/2009.png){kind=avatar}
Membership of the EEA includes free movement - so with the 4 principles included. I agree you cannot cherry pick.
and maybe some leavers have looked at the facts and decided we're better off long term outside the EU
I think some of the more vocal/hysterical people on here should stay well away from speculation. It has been a matter of days, the real results/impact of this won't be apparent for years yet there are people absolutely convinced that recent volatility has vindicated their stance or that property funds with mostly illiquid assets that have had to stop redemptions are somehow an indication that they were right and that leave is now some how obviously a bad decision.
Whilst its true that long term we don't know the outcome, for the immediate future all predictions are for things to get a *lot* worse before they get *any* better.
Predictions aren't obviously infallible. But many people with a decent track record of making such predictions are talking about parity with the dollar - or even below.
Predictions aren't obviously infallible. But many people with a decent track record of making such predictions are talking about parity with the dollar - or even below.
The decline in the pound to a 31 year low and the ceasing of trading in both banks (due to sudden drops) and commercial property are an indication (in the very short term) of the brexit vote having a toxic effect on our economy. We've yet to see what effect article 50 and deals or lack of them with the EU will have.
In 5-10 years who knows...
Theoretically after we invoke article 50 in the two years remaining is this when we will begin to strike up new trade deals or is the Article 50 process solely about us leaving the EU?
I.e. Can we not already line up all potential new trade deals for the end of the 2 year period or do we have to wait until we have officially left before we can make new deals?
Sorry if that doesn't make any sense!
I.e. Can we not already line up all potential new trade deals for the end of the 2 year period or do we have to wait until we have officially left before we can make new deals?
Sorry if that doesn't make any sense!
Not quite right from the link. As it says if you account for what we get back it become 6m v 14 or almost half. But it also mentions that this figure doesn't include the scientific investment we get from the eu which I believe is 8 billion a year.
So yeah we are back to 14m again if you preapered to pay for all the things that the eu did.
Rather nice that we've got our own free floating currency then contrary to what some of the more ardent Europhiles on the remain side would have liked a few years ago (granted not all - I'm not going to tar everyone who voted remain with the same brush). Of course opposition to the(rather flawed)euro was also dismissed with the whole little Englander too... and now look at the mess Greece is in.
Soldato
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Its an effect on perceptions and the market. The economy isnt altered immediately in that same way, its inertia is much higher.
Could and should take it as a warning not to be indecisive as its very obvious that investment with doubts in general will side with EU or USA.
We can easily do better just by removing that doubt and carrying on, all that need change is agreements are manually done individually instead of by block vote with the EU
Draw up contracts but cant sign till we leave EU.
We left the EURO during its formation as no support was forthcoming. Any country larger then Greece is going to cause great problems, UK has to be more cautious because we are too big to help in that same way, it doesnt work
yeah and in reality we probably will as it isn't really in anyone's interest to not do so, especially if the Council is taking the lead in talks
I've never advocated the Euro. That said Woohoo we can print our own banana republic money and we look likely to need to.
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Soldato
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My understanding is that it is the legal process which disentangles the EU and the exiting country. Once complete, negotiations can begin on a new trade agreement. While that process is in progress it is not possible to negotiate any agreement.
I'm sure we will. We will have tariff free access to the eu and freedom of movement. I am very hopeful of this result. And maybe pay 90% of what we used to to.
Anything else will be a bonus.
well it is a nice gesture but it seems a bit silly to give away things like that before we'ev even started negotiations, hopefully the EU will see it as a nice gesture and reciprocate... but if we now have to make further concessions simply to get the same in return for our citizens in the EU then it was a silly move.
Spain will use this to leverage a deal for Gibraltar
your expats can stay, but we get Gibraltar, don't like it, well they are coming home then..........
considering 95% of Gibraltar voted to stay in the EU I can see them being happy with that deal.
Actually a large number of business loans are drawn against the value of commercial property, the fall in that market directly affects banks and businesses.
Hell no, I wanted us to keep the pound but I voted remain. Does that make me a bad person?
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