Brexit thread - what happens next

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Stretch said:
It's very possible that the EU will drag the negotiation out indefinitely by engineering a stalemate.
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Can't do this. Well they can in theory, but A50 is a 2 year process and can only be extended once started with the agreement of all 27 member states.

Its one of their trump cards, if we can't agree anything we could in effect crash out of the EU with literally no deal on anything.
What would actually happen at this point I have no idea, some hasty deals I am sure but I would expect some pretty serious impact on the markets and investments if we started approaching the 2 year deadline and were clearly not getting close to a deal.
 
Mercenary Keyboard Warrior said:
Can't do this. Well they can in theory, but A50 is a 2 year process and can only be extended once started with the agreement of all 27 member states.

Its one of their trump cards, if we can't agree anything we could in effect crash out of the EU with literally no deal on anything.
What would actually happen at this point I have no idea, some hasty deals I am sure but I would expect some pretty serious impact on the markets and investments if we started approaching the 2 year deadline and were clearly not getting close to a deal.
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We would trade on WTO rules with a 3-4% tariff. Not a big issue especially as we have dropped the corporate tax. It would still be cheaper to be based in the UK.

Mr Jack said:
Why do you think it's a big blow? A recognition of the failures of the past is a good step towards fixing them. The Euro needs to get Greece, Italy and Portugal firmly back on the path to success. This kind of recognition can only help in that process.
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It is massive blow. They describe the Euro as flawed. The previous bailouts were a mistake and it implies that they won't support future bailouts unless strict criteria are met. Considering things are worse now that means Germany and other EU countries will have to foot the bill in a repetitive cycle getting worse everytime. No help from the IMF anymore. They are in a spiral dive with no way to pull out.
 
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joeyjojo said:
Do you know what the percentages are?

About 7% each of France's and Germany's exports are to the UK (6.9% and 6.6%, respectively).

The UKs exports to those countries are greater, 10.9% go to Germany and 7.4% to France.
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Germany and France export more in absolute terms so those percentages equate to more trade than vice versa. The link you've used to claim UK exports are greater even clearly states that we have a trade deficit with Germany.
 
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joeyjojo said:
Do you know what the percentages are?

About 7% each of France's and Germany's exports are to the UK (6.9% and 6.6%, respectively).

The UKs exports to those countries are greater, 10.9% go to Germany and 7.4% to France.

I don't see how that puts the UK in a stronger position.
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Because the UK doesnt have to prop up 5-6 failing nations economically, including France... a rather large economy.

Germany cant payroll everything forever, the EU is finished unless they can stabilize these nations before the world retracts again (which is darn certainty in the next few months).
 
I read today that Ford are going to increase the price of their vehicles because of brexit,didn't say by how much.
 
Moses said:
The average doesn't sound bad, but what's the detail? Eg. 85% of Scottish shellfish goes to the EU... and there'd be a 20% tariff plus vet costs and customs inspections costs on top. That'd wreck that industry.
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Exactly. some things are zero but some things are 20%. Those industries would be ruined. Fine if that is what we are prepared for and is acceptable damage.
 
Moses said:
The average doesn't sound bad, but what's the detail? Eg. 85% of Scottish shellfish goes to the EU... and there'd be a 20% tariff plus vet costs and customs inspections costs on top. That'd wreck that industry.
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The WTO are cracking down on disproportionate duties.
 
delta0 said:
We would trade on WTO rules with a 3-4% tariff. Not a big issue especially as we have dropped the corporate tax. It would still be cheaper to be based in the UK.



It is massive blow. They describe the Euro as flawed. The previous bailouts were a mistake and it implies that they won't support future bailouts unless strict criteria are met. Considering things are worse now that means Germany and other EU countries will have to foot the bill in a repetitive cycle getting worse everytime. No help from the IMF anymore. They are in a spiral dive with no way to pull out.
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We havent dropped the tax rate though, the previous chancellor announced a plan to do so, with no dates attached. Since hes no longer the chancellor and the new one is sounding like he may have a different plan going forwards there is no way to know the impact.
 
Mercenary Keyboard Warrior said:
We havent dropped the tax rate though, the previous chancellor announced a plan to do so, with no dates attached. Since hes no longer the chancellor and the new one is sounding like he may have a different plan going forwards there is no way to know the impact.
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The tax rate is already going to drop. I would be extremely surprised if the tax rate of 15% wasn't carried on by Hammond. It certainly will be. The UK will be economically extremely aggressive outside the EU. It is the way it always has been.

http://www.international-adviser.com/news/1030405/tax-cuts-predicted-hammond-chancellor
Predictions are he will drop a lot of taxes and corporate tax further to 12.5%.
 
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delta0 said:
The WTO are cracking down on disproportionate duties.
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Other than the fact that they are in fact quite toothless (think IMF type levels of actual power), we would move from EU to WTO rules?

How is that giving us any more control?

So we move from a group of generally fairly well aligned European guidelines and WANT to be controlled by a set that include nations massively different in their wants, beliefs and expectations.
 
Mercenary Keyboard Warrior said:
Other than the fact that they are in fact quite toothless (think IMF type levels of actual power), we would move from EU to WTO rules?

How is that giving us any more control?

So we move from a group of generally fairly well aligned European guidelines and WANT to be controlled by a set that include nations massively different in their wants, beliefs and expectations.
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Everything they do has to go through the WTO so hardly "toothless". The WTO have already cracked down on some tariffs. They only seem supporting within very tight laws on anti dumping and even then the EU has been blocked several times.
 
Mercenary Keyboard Warrior said:
We havent dropped the tax rate though, the previous chancellor announced a plan to do so, with no dates attached. Since hes no longer the chancellor and the new one is sounding like he may have a different plan going forwards there is no way to know the impact.
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Agreed he didnt set a date. Already it was set to decrease by 1% per year until 2018 when it becomes 17%. His announcement of 15% might have just meant by 2020.
 
delta0 said:
The tax rate is already going to drop. I would be extremely surprised if the tax rate of 15% wasn't carried on by Hammond. It certainly will be. The UK will be economically extremely aggressive outside the EU. It is the way it always has been.
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I know the tax rate is going to drop. Thats of course the same as any other future plan in a budget announcement. Subject to expectations and review at a later date.

If the tax take isn't high enough and pressures come its fairly easy to see this being delayed or changed. As a naturally right wing person, and a finance professional I am all for competative taxation, but it does feel a little like a race to the bottom with corporate tax right now.

There was some grinding of teeth in europe after the previous budget announcements and also just after Brexit when George announced the higher drop in rate. Yes its only playing the Nethrlands, Ireland, Lux etc at their own game but the UK doing it ups the stakes noticeably.
 
Mercenary Keyboard Warrior said:
I know the tax rate is going to drop. Thats of course the same as any other future plan in a budget announcement. Subject to expectations and review at a later date.

If the tax take isn't high enough and pressures come its fairly easy to see this being delayed or changed. As a naturally right wing person, and a finance professional I am all for competative taxation, but it does feel a little like a race to the bottom with corporate tax right now.

There was some grinding of teeth in europe after the previous budget announcements and also just after Brexit when George announced the higher drop in rate. Yes its only playing the Nethrlands, Ireland, Lux etc at their own game but the UK doing it ups the stakes noticeably.
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It is inevitable and the EU is pushing for tax harmonisation so that a business in the EU pays a single tax bill rather than a country specific one. This tool will make the UK very competitive against the 30% tax rates in the EU.
 
delta0 said:
It is inevitable and the EU is pushing for tax harmonisation so that a business in the EU pays a single tax bill rather than a country specific one. This tool will make the UK very competitive against the 30% tax rates in the EU.
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I can't see it happening personally

The dutch and irish in particular will cause massive issues should this progress, cant say it wont but I don't see it easily happening.
 
 
I'd have thought during this time of uncertainty, getting caught up in the right wing MSM is the worst thing you can do. The Daily Mail, Telegraph & the Express do nothing other than fuel prejudice and make people more thick.
 
Moses said:
The CCCTB is about harmonising how tax is calculated, not having a uniform rate of tax. It's so companies can't shift profits around different countries and exploit different loopholes to minimise their tax burden. That's the only concrete thing on the horizon... the stuff about having a uniform tax rate is baseless scaremongering, unless you can prove otherwise.
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For a country like Ireland that is the exact same thing. Nearly all the money going through Ireland wasn't generated there. Although tax rate harmonisation is certainly on the agenda again now the UK is leaving.
 
Greebo said:
Agreed he didnt set a date. Already it was set to decrease by 1% per year until 2018 when it becomes 17%. His announcement of 15% might have just meant by 2020.
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that fiscal plan has been chucked in the bin. The new chancellor is going to reset it in the autumn statement. Then we need a General Election because this government was not voted in on ditching the current plan for something else in autumn...........
 
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