Brexit thread - what happens next

[ReltonBFD]

Brexit is a disaster so far.

Apparently we didn't need experts warning us of the consequences during the referendum and it was all lies anyway..

Short term , i didn't vote Leave for the short term.

Its the "Long Term" i voted for , everyone i spoke to i said it'll be a long game , ill have to deal with the consequences from Brexit as they come but to say its a disaster so far when its not even 2 months , come on its uncertainty and change and people don't like it.

Give it time and have at least a tiny amount faith , Boils down to the EU not listening to the growing concerns which made the public vote leave .

 

[Destination]

Define your long term, out of interest.

 

[silversurfer]

Tesco said they will exclude caged hen eggs by 2025

Sterling fell 2 cents against the dollar since last night. Returning to the lower band of a trend showing decline since 2014. A normal range is 1.28 to 1.44

It's that Brexit 'did you use the minibar?' check out moment: UK may owe EU £20bn in unpaid budget contributions

https://t.co/6CWfvLTlTw

Minouche Shafik, deputy Bank governor, says about 150 firms will be eligible for £10bn corporate bond buying programme.

 

[Nate--IRL--]

Define your long term, out of interest.

I think a better question is to ask what quantity of faith needs to be harvested? He seems to think it is only a little faith is required to fix things. Maybe if some excess sovereignty can be converted into faith? That way you can be sure to have the necessary amount.

Nate

 

[PapaLazaru]

Brexit is a disaster so far.

Apparently we didn't need experts warning us of the consequences during the referendum and it was all lies anyway..

“people in this country have had enough of experts”

And we wonder why Gove is on the political scrapheap?

 

[Greebo]

I see Bank of England forecast today 250k jobs lost over the next two years. And that was based on their measures working to keep us out of recession.

I thought leaving would mean these foreigners would go back home and we would have full employment and wages would rise?

 

[Jonny2284]

I thought leaving would mean these foreigners would go back home and we would have full employment and wages would rise?

Can you point me to where that was claimed outside of a Daily Mail comment section?

 

[Destination]

When we use QE, and we are going to have £170B of it currently, where exactly does this money go, some have said 'to the banks', well what do they do with it?
Banks are private companies are they not? So why are we funding private companies directly?

I am little to no understanding of this process, I could understand it if we used it to write off national debt, or to build infrastructure, but in its current form, what exactly does it do?

 

[Faustus]

I find it very interesting and worrying that the very vocal leave campaigners who pushed and pushed the electorate to leave the EU appear to have melted away following the vote - where are they now?

One of our neighbours (I'm sure you know the sort, all mouth down the pub) runs his own building firm, employs about eight or nine chaps. He wasn't half giving it some throughout the campaign, had a union flag at his yard, vote leave on his vans. Just been told today he's gone bust because of brexit - all his work has dried up. It's the people he employed I feel sorry for.

The wife was telling me her friend gives financial advice for a well known charity. A number of pensioners have been in to them saying they cannot manage because they are no longer getting any interest on their money because interest rates are at rock bottom and they thought they would be better off if they voted to come out of the EU?

And this is before things start to really bite. Make no mistake this is going to get pretty nasty before too long and I quite see why the likes of Farage and Co have decided to make a quick exit. Boris may not be to popular before long either.

 

[n111ck]

Let me just call BS on both your anecdotes.

A firm going bust within a few weeks of the referendum would already have to be in very serious trouble + and pensioners living off the interest on their accounts would have to be minted in the first place.

 

[bayo000]

A small building contractor going bust this quickly is quite feasible, especially if they do foundations as developers are stopping/ slowing construction of new properties.

 

[dalehitchy1]

I find it very interesting and worrying that the very vocal leave campaigners who pushed and pushed the electorate to leave the EU appear to have melted away following the vote - where are they now?

One of our neighbours (I'm sure you know the sort, all mouth down the pub) runs his own building firm, employs about eight or nine chaps. He wasn't half giving it some throughout the campaign, had a union flag at his yard, vote leave on his vans. Just been told today he's gone bust because of brexit - all his work has dried up. It's the people he employed I feel sorry for.

The wife was telling me her friend gives financial advice for a well known charity. A number of pensioners have been in to them saying they cannot manage because they are no longer getting any interest on their money because interest rates are at rock bottom and they thought they would be better off if they voted to come out of the EU?

And this is before things start to really bite. Make no mistake this is going to get pretty nasty before too long and I quite see why the likes of Farage and Co have decided to make a quick exit. Boris may not be to popular before long either.

I've yet to see a leave voter blame a downturn in the economy on the brexiters vote. Most likely it'll be the fault of remainers talking the economy down to say we were right or the immigrants.

 

[teaboy5]

I find it very interesting and worrying that the very vocal leave campaigners who pushed and pushed the electorate to leave the EU appear to have melted away following the vote - where are they now?

One of our neighbours (I'm sure you know the sort, all mouth down the pub) runs his own building firm, employs about eight or nine chaps. He wasn't half giving it some throughout the campaign, had a union flag at his yard, vote leave on his vans. Just been told today he's gone bust because of brexit - all his work has dried up. It's the people he employed I feel sorry for.

The wife was telling me her friend gives financial advice for a well known charity. A number of pensioners have been in to them saying they cannot manage because they are no longer getting any interest on their money because interest rates are at rock bottom and they thought they would be better off if they voted to come out of the EU?

And this is before things start to really bite. Make no mistake this is going to get pretty nasty before too long and I quite see why the likes of Farage and Co have decided to make a quick exit. Boris may not be to popular before long either.

So in the space of a few months someone's business has gone bust because of brexit? I find that hard to believe to be honest. It must have been in trouble long before this.

 

[Faustus]

Let me just call BS on both your anecdotes.

A firm going bust within a few weeks of the referendum would already have to be in very serious trouble + and pensioners living off the interest on their accounts would have to be minted in the first place.

No one said they were living off their interest at all, don't read things that aren't there. The interest is there to supplement their state pension and millions of pensioners do this. With interest rates now next to zero that extra income has gone doh!

Have you not seen shares in building firms like Wimpeys and Barratt Homes dropped like a stone since Brexit.

 

[johnloo]

When we use QE, and we are going to have £170B of it currently, where exactly does this money go, some have said 'to the banks', well what do they do with it?
Banks are private companies are they not? So why are we funding private companies directly?

I am little to no understanding of this process, I could understand it if we used it to write off national debt, or to build infrastructure, but in its current form, what exactly does it do?

QE Should go to the people not the banks, its free money for the banks.
Its scare tactics and talking down the economy, with everything there is a lag effect, all these thing happen before the vote, the pound was heading for depreciation already.

 

[Cern]

Let me just call BS on both your anecdotes.

A firm going bust within a few weeks of the referendum would already have to be in very serious trouble + and pensioners living off the interest on their accounts would have to be minted in the first place.

Well many small businesses exist on a very precarious basis from month to month and are very sensitive to a loss of orders. Particularly in the building trade where often they are getting money upfront from customers so they can buy the materials and hire the labour etc. If the orders dry up, even temporarily, then it rapidly gets serious as they can't pay their suppliers and wage bills.

Pensioners unable to live off savings interest is nothing to do with Brexit. Interest rates have been rock bottom for a long time now. Brexit won't solve this situation (which is what some pensioners are clearly hoping) but it didn't cause it.

Whilst anecdotal you're going to hear more and more of these sort of stories because sadly there are a substantial number of people who voted Leave thinking it would bring quick results.

So if you catch a Leaver moaning, just tell them that the Brexit party line is "deal with it". If you're a Remainer, well it's going to be all your fault anyway so you might as well keep moaning as much as you like. You can score some extra Non-Patriot Deportation Points for slipping "I told you so" into the conversation

 

[jimjamuk]

I find it very interesting and worrying that the very vocal leave campaigners who pushed and pushed the electorate to leave the EU appear to have melted away following the vote - where are they now?

One of our neighbours (I'm sure you know the sort, all mouth down the pub) runs his own building firm, employs about eight or nine chaps. He wasn't half giving it some throughout the campaign, had a union flag at his yard, vote leave on his vans. Just been told today he's gone bust because of brexit - all his work has dried up. It's the people he employed I feel sorry for.

The wife was telling me her friend gives financial advice for a well known charity. A number of pensioners have been in to them saying they cannot manage because they are no longer getting any interest on their money because interest rates are at rock bottom and they thought they would be better off if they voted to come out of the EU?

And this is before things start to really bite. Make no mistake this is going to get pretty nasty before too long and I quite see why the likes of Farage and Co have decided to make a quick exit. Boris may not be to popular before long either.

I voted leave and frankly stopped bickering on this thread as it was pointless- ask me in a couple of years how things are when we actually left the EU... until then not interested

 

[dlite]

When we use QE, and we are going to have £170B of it currently, where exactly does this money go, some have said 'to the banks', well what do they do with it?
Banks are private companies are they not? So why are we funding private companies directly?

I am little to no understanding of this process, I could understand it if we used it to write off national debt, or to build infrastructure, but in its current form, what exactly does it do?

As far as I'm aware, the process is roughly the following:

1) BoE conjures billions from thin air by magic.
2) They engage into what is called "open market operations" or OMO's
-This means that they just purchase governmental (and apparently now also some corporate bonds from open markets.
3) When there is more demand for a bond (with fixed interest rate stamped on the bond) it means that it's value goes up.
4) This means that when HM Treasury or these companies issue new bonds there is increased demand out there which drives the "price" (interest rate stamped on the bond) down.

End result is that HM Treasury and companies can lend at lower interest rates to finance their operations / investments.

QE Should go to the people not the banks, its free money for the banks.
Its scare tactics and talking down the economy, with everything there is a lag effect, all these thing happen before the vote, the pound was heading for depreciation already.

No money is "given" to banks. Though banks often hold governmental debt as it is considered a safe (albeit low income) investment and can be used as collateral for their own operations, they don't directly "get money" from QE.

Only parties who sell their bonds to BoE "get money" and they lose the bonds they sell in exchange (after which BoE starts receiving interest paid by HM Treasury on those particular bonds). I don't know what BoE does with it's profits.

ECB pays dividents to it's holders, national central banks (Bundesbank of Germany etc.), which usually pay dividends to their owners (in this case I suppose to German government treasury?).

 

[silversurfer]

A small building contractor going bust this quickly is quite feasible, especially if they do foundations as developers are stopping/ slowing construction of new properties.

Not going bust, closing down to avoid losses from their now empty order book makes sense yea. Going bust implies they had debts accumulated over the last year with no margins on work finished to cover any closing losses.
The vote barely just happened so can hardly be blamed for their poor business practise and lack of profitability.

If they did so badly previously and were borderline viable as a business in this way its hardly to blame from current news

I don't know what BoE does with it's profits.

Same as the FED I think. In theory its private and in practise if BOE ever makes profits the treasury takes them and I believe Osborne did do that to help balance a budget (though we always end in deficit afaik)
The nasty tail end to QE is that in a similar way all losses BOE occurs through buying this very expensive debt (low rates means not cheap debt to buy but extremely highly valued) will be charged to the Treasury and that means the taxpayer sees a hole in the budget which I expect means higher taxes at the same time as recession.

The alternative is to pretend BOE was not a public liability and it defaults, sterling notes would be worthless I assume. The EURO at least they can do a runner and just go back to their old coinage and/or do a very rough exchange rate. Officially the old ruble converts to the now used ruble at 10,000:1 I think so Russia is good right

Spoiler

Old Ruble 1000:1 apparently but I doubt its actually possible to do now

In the 1790s, after the ratification of the United States Constitution, Continentals could be exchanged for treasury bonds at 1% of face value.[54]

another major 'default' scenario not labelled as such but its a default via inflation which imo QE could be labelled as. See Japan etc

http://coinmill.com/RUR_calculator.html#RUR=1000
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_American_currency#Continental_currency

 

[Basher]

QE Should go to the people not the banks, its free money for the banks.
Its scare tactics and talking down the economy, with everything there is a lag effect, all these thing happen before the vote, the pound was heading for depreciation already.

If you think QE is free money to the banks, then you don't understand QE. 'Giving' it to the people would be a catastrophically bad idea.