Brexit thread - what happens next

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Invoking A50 the day after was just as much part of project fear as all the other BS threats.

The fact the Guardian would even publish that article tells us opinion is shifting away from the economic armageddon lies of Remain.
 
Ha at people saying brexit hasn't done much, it's because we haven't exited yet. Once a50 is in then the real poo will start. Then we'll see the outcome. The market got scared after the vote, things went a bit crazy and now it is slowly returning to normal until a50 is invoked and when that happens we'll see what the real kick is. But I have massive doubts of it ever happening as pretty much everyone knows that it would be like shooting yourself in the face.
 
grudas said:
Ha at people saying brexit hasn't done much, it's because we haven't exited yet. Once a50 is in then the real poo will start. Then we'll see the outcome. The market got scared after the vote, things went a bit crazy and now it is slowly returning to normal until a50 is invoked and when that happens we'll see what the real kick is. But I have massive doubts of it ever happening as pretty much everyone knows that it would be like shooting yourself in the face.
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"But it is obvious that the sky has not fallen in as a result of the referendum, and those who said it would look a bit silly." ;)
 
n111ck said:
Wow even the Guardian is publishing articles about how Project Fear was all BS and just seems to have frightened Remain voters only :D

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/aug/20/brexit-eu-referendum-economy-project-fear
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Well the Guardian does publish a range of views, it's not got a rigid agenda like certain other papers. You'll note the author is pro-Brexit.

But Project Fear was BS, things were never going to fall apart the day after the vote, or a month, or perhaps even a year. The true effect of all this, good or bad, won't be known until A50 is invoked and negotiations completed. And even then the full effects won't be known until everything is finally untangled (if that's what needs to happen after negotiations).

Right now it's just Project Complacency because nothing much has changed other than some turmoil in the markets. Well that's because nothing much HAS changed and market turmoil can happen at any time. We're still part of the EU, A50 hasn't been invoked, Parliament is in recess, the sun has been out (ok, so that's a change) and Team GB are distracting everyone with lots of shinies :)
 
grudas said:
Ha at people saying brexit hasn't done much, it's because we haven't exited yet. Once a50 is in then the real poo will start. Then we'll see the outcome. The market got scared after the vote, things went a bit crazy and now it is slowly returning to normal until a50 is invoked and when that happens we'll see what the real kick is.
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The markets don't work like that. Article 50 is already factored in the market when the vote came in, when it's invoke it will do very little if anything at all.

But I have massive doubts of it ever happening as pretty much everyone knows that it would be like shooting yourself in the face.
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You'd lose that bet, it's happening weather you like it or not, refusing to believe it will just make it harder for your mind when it happens
 
n111ck said:
Invoking A50 the day after was just as much part of project fear as all the other BS threats.

The fact the Guardian would even publish that article tells us opinion is shifting away from the economic armageddon lies of Remain.
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People getting Euro 90-99cents to the £ at Gatwick is nothing? Pound down 10%+, this has still to work its way through but it will. FT saying City of London are trying to get good deals with countries to keep the benefits of Passporting although they are unlikely to get what they want as that again will be cherry-picking. The economic problems are starting to unfold. Will they now see Paris/Frankfurt as a better option for themselves? If that happens then economic Armageddon will be an understatement.
 
Cern said:
Well the Guardian does publish a range of views, it's not got a rigid agenda like certain other papers. You'll note the author is pro-Brexit.

But Project Fear was BS, things were never going to fall apart the day after the vote, or a month, or perhaps even a year. The true effect of all this, good or bad, won't be known until A50 is invoked and negotiations completed. And even then the full effects won't be known until everything is finally untangled (if that's what needs to happen after negotiations).

Right now it's just Project Complacency because nothing much has changed other than some turmoil in the markets. Well that's because nothing much HAS changed and market turmoil can happen at any time. We're still part of the EU, A50 hasn't been invoked, Parliament is in recess, the sun has been out (ok, so that's a change) and Team GB are distracting everyone with lots of shinies :)
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One effect is felt clearly: clear drop in Sterling.

I'm thinking that this makes UK job market more vibrant in certain sectors as international companies can expect to get more labour for their dollars and euros if they hire here.

If for example company like Microsoft wants to hire programmers, hiring programmers in UK just became almost 15% cheaper compared to hiring Silicon valley / Seattle programmers. These kind of companies don't "export" or "import" anything in traditional sense to or from UK, so possible trade deals make very little difference to them.

For some companies single market access for services is crucial. If someone sells consultancy and legal services etc. those deals might be heavily affected if purchasing them form UK becomes more difficult than just paying a regular invoice.

Right now selling consultancy is super simple and rules on VAT etc. are clear. Like I used to sell IT-services to a German client. Only thing I had to do, is send invoice with 0% VAT and click a button in our accounting software to report it accordingly to our treasury.

If single market access is lost and prospective customers in mainland Europe needs do something more complex, they'll just rather buy from inside EU. Many UK companies would need to set up shell companies inside EU to make business transactions easy for their customers. This will be easy for huge companies who already have subsidiaries in every country and competent accounting departments, but it would make it much more difficult for one man, laptop and a dog companies to export their services...

Obviously, none of this matters the slightest for many people out there.
 
do_ron_ron said:
People getting Euro 90-99cents to the £ at Gatwick is nothing? Pound down 10%+, this has still to work its way through but it will. FT saying City of London are trying to get good deals with countries to keep the benefits of Passporting although they are unlikely to get what they want as that again will be cherry-picking. The economic problems are starting to unfold. Will they now see Paris/Frankfurt as a better option for themselves? If that happens then economic Armageddon will be an understatement.
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Hey keep up the project fear if it makes you feel better about your vote but the Guardian of all papers printing that is way more telling than the opinion of a frightened OC member.
 
Well we take back possession of our holiday/retirement home at the end of this month in France (been renting it out for the summer) so we will be going down there until the end of October. This should give us an opportunity to gauge what the French think of our decision and also how it may directly affect us in time.
 
StriderX said:
Has Fuel duty ever gone down appreciably?

That's a piece of legislation that is detrimental to literally everyone, sure the government can say they use the money wisely... but we all know they just spent it on their bird houses and moats.
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So non Eu legislation, leaving the Eu will certainly help fix that one then
 
n111ck said:
Invoking A50 the day after was just as much part of project fear as all the other BS threats.

The fact the Guardian would even publish that article tells us opinion is shifting away from the economic armageddon lies of Remain.
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Or it tells us that Brexit is not happening ;)
 
Faustus said:
Well we take back possession of our holiday/retirement home at the end of this month in France (been renting it out for the summer) so we will be going down there until the end of October. This should give us an opportunity to gauge what the French think of our decision and also how it may directly affect us in time.
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Judging the conversations I had with half a dozen Gite and cafe owners in the Loire valley the week after the EU Ref, the rural French want out of the EU as well.
 
I love all the posts "I went on holiday to Amsterdam and spoke to the locals in a coffee shop"... really??? I don't mean really as did you speak to them, but are we really basing the opinion of Europe on some individuals that may or may not have been spoken to.
 
You mean the one post I assume. How is it totally unbelievable that someone visited Amsterdam and talked to people who live there? Seems a fairly standard thing to do.

Edit: I see you added a bit to the post. I don't think anyone was saying that we are basing the opinion of Europe on what some Amsterdam residents think, it was clearly presented as a bit of trivia. I do think the idea that some people formed based on what fairly niche right-wing European parties and news outlets were saying that the population of other countries want out as well are incorrect. They were comforting words I think if you like the idea of not being the only person to do something, I just feel the relevance was missed when it was being reported over here, due to genuine error or just a way of bolstering an existing position.
 
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