Brexit thread - what happens next

b0redj0rd · 2 Sep 2016 at 09:04

sityeuropa said:
I'm an avid leaver. I just hope it has no chance of succeeding.

In that case, don't worry too much!

Mulder · 2 Sep 2016 at 09:20

sityeuropa said:
Anyone know how this high court case over MP's having to approve triggering article 50 will likely go? Does the current law account for this somewhere?

I'd be surprised if it got anywhere. The main argument for the case is that triggering article 50 without asking MPs encroaches on parliamentary sovereignty, which seems a bit odd to me.

Parliament is accountable to the people, and the people have already spoken. Seems backward to seek approval from a group who are supposed to represent another group who have already made their wishes known.

I doubt the Government/PM would be saying what they're saying if they thought there was a good chance the case would succeed.

Dr Jack · 2 Sep 2016 at 09:22

sityeuropa said:
Anyone know how this high court case over MP's having to approve triggering article 50 will likely go? Does the current law account for this somewhere?

No word yet. Both sides seem pretty confident that their interpretation is solid. The court will look at it in October so I don't think we'll know anything before then.

Faustus · 2 Sep 2016 at 10:21

b0redj0rd said:
Eh? Donald Trump? I'm so bored by the relentless coverage of him by the BBC - I don't know anyone who was persuaded to vote leave by him. The notion seems ridiculous. You'd probably find more people were turned off by Obama.

This was from the Electoral Reform Societies own poll -

The only high-profile figures who, according to the poll, persuaded more voters of their position than drove them to vote the other way were Boris Johnson, Nigel Farage and US presidential candidate Donald Trump, who backed Brexit.

Mercenary Keyboard Warrior · 2 Sep 2016 at 10:38

Tefal said:
Yeah its not a serious suggestion but it eould be interesting.

The EU forving the uk to leave (obviously there would have been no brexit vote with this course) would have been a msssive disaster for the world economy and a huge shock.

Effectively such a shock that the EU could not do it.

Thus, law or not they'd have to work something out, some form of compromise out of self preservation if nothing else.

Is there any actual article that can be invoked to force a member to leave?

Is it also covered somehow under 50?

The normal way issues are dealt with for non conformance is fines, but then you could just not pay them either.

Mercenary Keyboard Warrior · 2 Sep 2016 at 10:47

Mercenary Keyboard Warrior said:
Is there any actual article that can be invoked to force a member to leave?

Is it also covered somehow under 50?

The normal way issues are dealt with for non conformance is fines, but then you could just not pay them either.

So after a little digging its looking like the same issue as a member deciding to leave, not well covered.

Article 7 seems to be the one most mentioned, which in effect could suspend all the main functions of the free market etc for an individual member.
In reality I don't even know how that would happen in practice, big chunks of commerce and people movement would practically grind to a halt.
Its designed to handle a massive issue in one member state, such as human rights abuse.

Cern · 2 Sep 2016 at 13:28

Mercenary Keyboard Warrior said:
So after a little digging its looking like the same issue as a member deciding to leave, not well covered.

Article 7 seems to be the one most mentioned, which in effect could suspend all the main functions of the free market etc for an individual member.
In reality I don't even know how that would happen in practice, big chunks of commerce and people movement would practically grind to a halt.
Its designed to handle a massive issue in one member state, such as human rights abuse.

Well we're about to find out ... voluntarily

n111ck · 2 Sep 2016 at 14:19

Rather than focussing on the negatives, what positive news is there from the EU - are France and Germany's economies booming for example?

malachi · 2 Sep 2016 at 15:24

n111ck said:
Rather than focussing on the negatives, what positive news is there from the EU - are France and Germany's economies booming for example?

No one cares about any EU positives as the UK wants out.

n111ck · 2 Sep 2016 at 15:27

malachi said:
No one cares about any EU positives as the UK wants out.

There must be some though surely? No good news out of Brussels?

Cern · 2 Sep 2016 at 15:31

n111ck said:
There must be some though surely? No good news out of Brussels?

Of course there is, but Leavers aren't listening so there's little point in explaining anymore. You might as well drop the act of feigned interest.

n111ck · 2 Sep 2016 at 15:39

Cern said:
Of course there is, but Leavers aren't listening so there's little point in explaining anymore. You might as well drop the act of feigned interest.

Humour me?

Skunkworks · 2 Sep 2016 at 15:59

n111ck said:
There must be some though surely? No good news out of Brussels?

Nah, just the everyday stabbings and explosions, nothing unusual.

Faustus · 2 Sep 2016 at 16:35

malachi said:
No one cares about any EU positives as the UK wants out.

Or you could argue the UK was conned into wanting out? :rolleyes:

Hagar · 2 Sep 2016 at 16:54

I was never 100% about voting leave however that is what I did on the balance of feelings about the EU and the results of an analytic hierarchy process I carried out to prioritise all the seperate criteria. There are obviously many EU positives as there are negatives. The negatives won by a small amount

I am now 100% committed to leaving the EU though and I believe that it will do the UK a great deal of good in the future to not be tied to the EU.

n111ck · 2 Sep 2016 at 17:19

Faustus said:
Or you could argue the UK was conned into wanting out?

Better to be conned into doing something positive than being scared into something negative.

Cern · 2 Sep 2016 at 17:25

n111ck said:
Better to be conned into doing something positive than being scared into something negative.

What if it turns out you were conned into doing something negative? At this stage either outcome is possible.

Still at least you admit you were conned, so that's a step forward

deuse · 2 Sep 2016 at 17:32

Cern said:
Of course there is, but Leavers aren't listening so there's little point in explaining anymore. You might as well drop the act of feigned interest.

Really?

I've been reading FT.com and it's all bad news. Can't give you links as you have to pay.

n111ck · 2 Sep 2016 at 17:45

Cern said:
What if it turns out you were conned into doing something negative? At this stage either outcome is possible.

Still at least you admit you were conned, so that's a step forward

Leaving the EU could never be negative to me

malachi · 2 Sep 2016 at 18:02

Faustus said:
Or you could argue the UK was conned into wanting out?

Yep, that too.