Hong Kong's "coffin cubicles"

Raymond Lin · 7 Jun 2017 at 19:11

dowie said:
it isn't just that there is also the fact that there is high demand to live near the central areas just like with other cities (yes this problem is particularly amplified in HK)

It isn't so much that people can't develop housing in other areas but that housing isn't so desirable as a result of it's location

for example HK has abandoned villages:

http://www.scmp.com/magazines/post-...844/windows-past-abandoned-villages-hong-kong

abandoned developments such as sea ranch:

http://edition.cnn.com/2017/04/12/architecture/paradise-lost-hong-kong/index.html

the housing exists and could be developed again but people wanted to live centrally causing various housing to be abandoned elsewhere

That photo of the housing/land is by the beach is already sold, and private and likely to cost about £500k+ per flat. As for the villages, there are some but the land they sit on are small not to mention those land could be private, passed down the generations so technically out of government control. I used to live in one of those villages.

I personally wouldn't want to live in the central area, it's far too populated, and it takes no time at all to commute from way up north to Central, 30mins on the MTR can get you to Kowloon.

My uncle went back and bought a flat there about 10 years ago, about £250k back then, no more than 400 sq ft and it is in the New Territories, way out of the centre.

StriderX · 7 Jun 2017 at 19:12

I wonder if its reasonable to think that with whats going in Japan with respect to a lack of desire to have families is going to happen to China much more rapidly?

Vonhelmet · 7 Jun 2017 at 19:12

Dis86 said:
A point we're seeing an masse in this country with record levels of flooding because drainage systems can't cope.

That's as much if not more to do with poor land and river management, upland deforestation, etc.

Raymond Lin · 7 Jun 2017 at 19:15

StriderX said:
I wonder if its reasonable to think that with whats going in Japan with respect to a lack of desire to have families is going to happen to China much more rapidly?

I can't see it.

Different cultures, not to mention in China they had decades of the 1 child policy which restricted the population, now that is more relaxed, it really going the opposite direction, families want to have more children.

Roar87 · 7 Jun 2017 at 19:16

Vonhelmet said:
It's not unreasonable to suggest everyone gives up a bit for the overall growth of the country. Barely any of the country is built on in the grand scheme of things.

To what end, is 70 million people not enough? We don't have 100% employment, why do we need more people?

Vonhelmet · 7 Jun 2017 at 19:20

Roar87 said:
To what end, is 70 million people not enough? We don't have 100% employment, why do we need more people?

No country has 100% employment, and they probably never will. That's not the point. The point is a growing population would allow for a growing economy. A stagnant or falling population brings problems on that front.

dowie · 7 Jun 2017 at 19:20

Raymond Lin said:
That photo is by the beach is already sold, and private and likely to cost about £500k+ per flat. As for the villages, there are some but the land they sit on are small not to mention those land could be private, passed down the generations so technically out of government control. I used to live in one of those villages.

I'm not sure I understand your point - of course the private development is private???? The point was simply that there are areas that can and have been developed and that they're less desirable than the central locations... it isn't simply a case of there being no land/homes available but the market is also massively distorted because people want to live centrally/don't want to commute

you're way off with your figures too - the flats there go for way less than that

600sq ft flat sold last year for $1,238K HKD = £122k GBP

last two sales were £260K for a 1060 sq ft flat and £198k for a 600sq ft one:

https://www.squarefoot.com.hk/most-active-estate/outlying-island/sea-ranch/

Roar87 · 7 Jun 2017 at 19:23

Vonhelmet said:
No country has 100% employment, and they probably never will. That's not the point. The point is a growing population would allow for a growing economy. A stagnant or falling population brings problems on that front.

To what end though? When is enough people? We obviously don't have room for an infinite amount of people, where's the line?

Raymond Lin · 7 Jun 2017 at 19:27

dowie said:
I'm not sure I understand your point - of course the private development is private???? The point was simply that there are areas that can and have been developed and that they're less desirable than the central locations... it isn't simply a case of there being no land/homes available but the market is also massively distorted because people want to live centrally/don't want to commute

you're way off with your figures too - the flats there go for way less than that

600sq ft flat sold last year for $1,238K HKD = £122k GBP

last two sales were £260K for a 1060 sq ft flat and £198k for a 600sq ft one:

https://www.squarefoot.com.hk/most-active-estate/outlying-island/sea-ranch/

Meh, I took a random stab at the price of that flat. These flat looks to be the kind of place where you buy to go away for the weekend, and people who have them will have another place in the city.

The point is only 24% of land is actually habitable, both legally, politically and practically. To change that, you have to change the mindset of the government and there is no incentive to because of the housing market.

These beach side houses "Sea Ranch", were sold to make money for to government, they have no interest to make them to be council housing to alleviate the housing crisis. It is a political issue as much as a population issue. The point isn't "there is a nice looking beach side housing so there is plenty of room to built on". In terms of percentage, that is barely a drop in the ocean, if they want to, they could just release the land on the old airport but they choose not to.

Random fact, I actually know the head of the Housing Association in HK, randomly, he took a year's sabbatical and came to England to study Law about 10 years ago and was in my sister's LPC course, he was the deputy at the time, he is now the head. Should get him here to comment the ins and outs of why the market is the way it is !

Raymond Lin · 7 Jun 2017 at 19:29

Roar87 said:
To what end though? When is enough people? We obviously don't have room for an infinite amount of people, where's the line?

The UK have plenty of room, go to Hong Kong, that's dense...every time I come back I think...where is everyone? I could walk home from work and not see a single person.

As for to what end? To sustain the country, both economically and politically.

Roar87 · 7 Jun 2017 at 19:32

Raymond Lin said:
The UK have plenty of room, go to Hong Kong, that's dense...every time I come back I think...where is everyone? I could walk home from work and not see a single person.

As for to what end? To sustain the country, both economically and politically.

Is that the goal then, to live in **** holes like Hong Kong?

Raymond Lin · 7 Jun 2017 at 19:34

Roar87 said:
Is that the goal then, to live in **** holes like Hong Kong?

No, the goal is grow the country, land availability is not a problem here in the UK. There is enough room for everyone, i mean most people live in houses, most people in HK live in flats. If land is a problem in the UK we all would be living in flats already.

You seems to associate with population = problem. No, poor country = problem.

People don't work is a problem. population does not automatically equal problems

Roar87 · 7 Jun 2017 at 19:38

Raymond Lin said:
No, the goal is grow the country, land availability is not a problem here in the UK. There is enough room for everyone, i mean most people live in houses, most people in HK live in flats. If land is a problem in the UK we all would be living in flats already.

Yes but if you keep expanding the population for economic growth then the UK will eventually go the same way as Hong Kong, I think we have enough people, not just in the UK but globally.

dowie · 7 Jun 2017 at 19:38

Raymond Lin said:
Meh, I took a random stab at the price of that flat. These flat looks to be the kind of place where you buy to go away for the weekend, and people who have them will have another place in the city.

The point is only 24% of land is actually habitable, both legally, politically and practically. To change that, you have to change the mindset of the government and there is no incentive to because of the housing market.

These beach side houses "Sea Ranch", were sold to make money for to government, they have no interest to make them to be council housing to alleviate the housing crisis. It is a political issue as much as a population issue. The point isn't "there is a nice looking beach side housing so there is plenty of room to built on". In terms of percentage, that is barely a drop in the ocean, if they want to, they could just release the land on the old airport but they choose not to.

I think you're missing the point I was making a bit - it was quite a straight forward one and clearly backed by the facts - the point has nothing to do with council housing or lack of land... but simply highlighting that there exist developments away from the centre and there is a huge difference in price between them - this is simply due to there being huge demand for people wanting to live centrally.

Raymond Lin · 7 Jun 2017 at 19:44

Roar87 said:
Yes but if you keep expanding the population for economic growth then the UK will eventually go the same way as Hong Kong, I think we have enough people, not just in the UK but globally.

We won't, by leaving the EU, the UK has abandon it's identity as the gate way into Europe in terms of a financial central hub for Europe. HK on the other hand has very free legislation to open itself up to the Asian market, hence it's financial sector makes a LOT of money. This aspect alone would hurt London/UK in the long term. So economical growth wise we have already given ourself a disadvantage.

If you want to look at why a declining population is bad, look at Japan.

dowie said:
I think you're missing the point I was making a bit - it was quite a straight forward one and clearly backed by the facts - the point has nothing to do with council housing or lack of land... but simply highlighting that there exist developments away from the centre and there is a huge difference in price between them - this is simply due to there being huge demand for people wanting to live centrally.

I see.

Dis86 · 7 Jun 2017 at 22:04

Vonhelmet said:
That's as much if not more to do with poor land and river management, upland deforestation, etc.

Yes but why are those lands put under stress? Traditional lowland farms are now housing eststes.

Chojin · 7 Jun 2017 at 22:18

Raymond Lin said:
the goal is grow the country

Why do you think that is "the goal" ?

Raymond Lin · 7 Jun 2017 at 22:23

Chojin said:
Why do you think that is "the goal" ?

Yes, you are right, the goal isn't to grow the country, like stronger, richer, better.

The goal is get weaker, poorer, worse, that is the goal.

Chojin · 7 Jun 2017 at 22:26

Raymond Lin said:
Yes, you are right, the goal isn't to grow the country, like stronger, richer, better.

The goal is get weaker, poorer, worse, that is the goal.

You were referring to population growth like it equates to quality of life.

Vonhelmet · 7 Jun 2017 at 23:04

Chojin said:
You were referring to population growth like it equates to quality of life.

You're talking about them as though they're orthogonal.