My point was that the car is so much better than public transport, that in order to make sustainable modes of travel more appealing than the car, there would be an unthinkable amount of money required not to mention decades of 'agreed' planning and forward thinking, which if we're honest, is hardly a strong point of UK's politics. Lets use Southampton as an example:
I sadly live in the north of the town in Lordshill. I work in Fareham, which is about 25 minutes away by car in the School holidays, 45 in term time. If I was to get the train I would need to catch bus (every 10 minutes, so an average wait of 5 minutes every day), travel to the station for 20 minutes, get the train (every hour, and lets assume the bus could drop me off at the station 10 minutes early, given its high frequency). The train journey takes 25 minutes. I then have a 20 minute walk from the station to the edge of the business park where I work. This is total travel time of 1 hour and 25 minutes.
The thing is, I can't see how this can be improved. The bus service is very frequent and provides a reasonably direct route to the station. The frequency of the trains is irrelevant, as long as the bus is frequent (or vice versa). The bus needs to route through suburbs in order to pick enough enough people to make money. The train has one line to follow and stops at the little towns, of which my destination is one. The walk at the other end - this could be improved by having the planning in place 100 years ago to put a train station nearer the estate or vice versa.
So lets say that billions of £££ are spent, families uprooted, Great Crested Newts get squished, the council somehow manages to make a decision within a period of five years instead of deferring it for someone else to make in the future (London airport expansion, nuclear power...), and a train line installed to the northern section of Southampton. I could have a 10 minute walk to the station, which would be followed by a 5 minute wait and a 15 minute ride to Southampton, all change. Let's assume the rail planners had their thinking caps on and schedule the train to Fareham to arrive 5 minutes after the northern Southampton one does. A 25 minute journey with a 20 minute walk. Journey time = 1h 15 minutes.
I could cycle at the other end and reduce the time to the office to say 8 minutes. But then I would have to carry my bike on the train and bus, and wear suitable clothing, and not fall off. This is added inconvenience.
Finally, sustainable modes of travel still has numerous inherent weaknesses over private vehicle:
Firstly, people like the privacy of their car, with comfy seats, heating, music, and whatever else a new car's computer can do! Buses (and bus stations) and trains (and train stations) will never, ever, be able to provide that sort of travel. There is also the security aspect of travelling with other people.
Secondly, there is the weather - walking or cycling between facilities will get you wet or cold etc.
Thirdly, would you still own a car? For trips to the dump, long distance trips, buying a new TV from currys, if you have a dog, if you're elderly and need a wheelchair. It would also become more of a status symbol, or a hobby, to drive.
Edit - Fourthly, a phased switch between predominately private vehicle to SMOT would be required; it isn't going to happen over night from an infrastructure point of view. Which politician with a four year term is going to vote to build a cycleway which will provide no benefit (and reduce car capacity) for the next 10 years?
I would love if sustainable modes of travel received billions of investment over decades and made SMOT more attractive to use than public transport for inter-urban, but I can't see it ever happening.
We have been spoiled by cars. Cars are unbelievably, mindbogglingly good. The car (and lorry) is largely responsible for life as we know it. Saying that "cycle lanes should be provided everywhere" despite being largely undeliverable, is not going to cut it.
I think it will need an absolutely huge effort for people to permanently switch.
Would you travel by bus or train, at a cost of additional journey time, if you knew you would have to pay £15 a day to park at the shops? I know I would.
Would you travel by bus or train if you knew you would most likely not have a parking space waiting at the other end?
Would you travel by bus if you were only allowed one car in the household and it is in use by someone else? Well, you'd be forced to!
edit - would the masses vote in a politician who said they would tax the balls off the motorist? Would anyone have the guts to do it?
Ultimately I think it will be a mix of push and pull factors that will be required, as the oil runs out, with pull factors maybe being employed to improve the infrastructure to an extent that the country doesn't grind to a halt.