Countdown to the Budget

Uther

Uther

Uther

Soldato
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So, Budget next week. Sounds like there'll be stuff about driverless cars and more than likely a bit of fiddling around the edges with the housing crisis...
Anyone expecting anything dramatic, like kicking the 1% pay cap into touch, or finally giving up on 'austerity'? Anything they'll be forced to U turn on the following week?
 
Nope, if it doesn't benefit them, it won't be implemented. It'll be another hour or two of textbook lip service, using words like "we must" and "we should" with a few token changes to make it seem like they give a toss. Then it's back to business as usual, sucking off the banks and bickering over Brexit.
 
Now that the deficit is down to ~3% it sounds like there will be some more spending, nurses and the like are likely to get significant salary increases apparently. Talk of more tax avoidance loop hole closures as well.

Driverless car technology and AI investment has already been announced, but the sums mentioned don't really seem particularly significant.
 
Jokester said:
Driverless car technology and AI investment has already been announced, but the sums mentioned don't really seem particularly significant.
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That sounds pretty typical for our governments though, something that needs billions spent on infrastructure will get millions instead.
 
Moses said:
I wonder how any public sector pay increases will fall. Eg. will it just be nurses/police officers/prison officers who get a significant pay rise whilst other public sector workers continue to have significant real terms pay cuts?

The money's not massively significant because private firms will fund it... the important part is that it indicates what the Government thinks about those areas. If it's putting some money down then you have to think that legislation/regulatory changes will follow, as well as favourable tax conditions etc.
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I don't think they can realistically maintain the current increases, whilst those in the private sector have seemingly increased to 3-4% in the last few months. As you say, I don't think the sums are that big and will bring other benefits to the economy.
 
Moses said:
Yeah, I don’t think they can keep the cap. But the question is will they remove it across the board, or just for select headline professions, or remove it across the board but give an additional pay rise to certain professions, etc. Various options.

The second paragraph was on the tech investment you mentioned.
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Aye sorry, was thinking why private firms would end footing the bill.

I would hope it's across the board and not just those where they may want to retain people due to a reduction of new applicants due to Brexit.

On the other hand, the latest productivity figures showed a big increase following some poor performance.
 
Moses said:
Unsurprising, as a teacher :p. The point is that it could easily happen that nurses/police officers/prison officers get a good pay increase, but you don't... at what point your reaction would be...?
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Well, My personal reaction would not be the same as other teachers who have been in the profession for years.
I'm more than happy for those three professions you mentioned getting a pay rise and say teachers getting one next year. If they never plan on raising the cap.. then I would have more of an issue.

My job demands long hours and is hard. Compared to a police officer or a nurse though... not so much.
 
How much do public sector workers need as a pay rise to get back to where they should be now, 5%? Can't see that happening TBH
 
Uther said:
That sounds pretty typical for our governments though, something that needs billions spent on infrastructure will get millions instead.
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Like when we spent about £50 on 'graphene research' or some other pitifully small figure. Luckily we can rely on all the European research gra...oh, wait, never mind.
 
Sui said:
Pray for Stamp Duty being abolished for first time buyers :cool::cool::cool:
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Not really sure I agree this, if you cant afford the stamp duty then buy a cheaper house.

They are better off scrapping all the FTB support and using the money (plus a shed load more) addressing the supply issue than given people a token tax break or cash payout no a savings account when they are spending £125k+. They probably need to juggle with the stamp duty thresholds a bit to stop really modest houses coming into it, but again addressing the supply will stem this problem. They could also address the whole leasehold thing that is sweeping the nation, there are also bigger issues in the rental sector also.

Any relief for FTB needs to have a hard cap based on income or property value to stop that that don't need it from getting support. It's the same as giving people £5k off a £100k Tesla car as well as a £28k Leaf....
 
Slam62 said:
If the deficit is down to 3% and they start spending, won't it go higher?
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No, it depends on how much you spend it may not reduce as quickly. It's still something that needs to be cleared ASAP.

5% of the tax take gets spent on debt interest and the £ figure is ever increasing. The only point in which it becomes less relevant is if you can grow the tax take more than the interest you pay but you are still financing your day to day expenditure with debt and that will eventually catch up when (not if) the economy slows again or financing rates increase. Borrowing works fine for infrastructure, just not every day spending.
 
b0rn2sk8 said:
Not really sure I agree this, if you cant afford the stamp duty then buy a cheaper house.

They are better off scrapping all the FTB support and using the money (plus a shed load more) addressing the supply issue than given people a token tax break or cash payout no a savings account when they are spending £125k+. They probably need to juggle with the stamp duty thresholds a bit to stop really modest houses coming into it, but again addressing the supply will stem this problem. They could also address the whole leasehold thing that is sweeping the nation, there are also bigger issues in the rental sector also.

Any relief for FTB needs to have a hard cap based on income or property value to stop that that don't need it from getting support. It's the same as giving people £5k off a £100k Tesla car as well as a £28k Leaf....
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You say that, but a starter home in Brighton is no less than £270k, which is already a 27k deposit to get any form of decent interest rate on a mortgage. When you then add a further 3k on the stamp duty, it starts getting a little ridiculous about what is to be expected. Unfortunately due to family caring issues, we need to be within Brighton. Personally, I'd rather they just switched Stamp Duty to the seller, then it's only really affecting people at the end of life compared to what there is now.

It's all well and good them increasing the supply, but that will take years, when there is a need for something to happen much sooner than that.
 
What I would like to see:

- Scrap Class 1 primary and Class 4 NIC and increase income tax proportionately
- Everyone always has a personal allowance (i.e. even earning over £100k) and the additional rate band is reduced accordingly to make up for lost revenue
- SDLT only kicks in for those owning a single dwelling where the purchase price is >£500k - increase others taxes to make up for lost revenue (don't really care which)

All unlikely to happen unfortunately
 
Another lowering of pension allowance allowance is likely. Another refusal to address pension lifetime allowance is likely. Another largely meaningless increase in the personal allowance is likely. Another poorly thought through tax, that will be immediately dubbed something catch by the opposition along the lines of bedroom tax or pasty tax is likely.

The Budget is outdated nonsense. Once a tool to nudge finances back in line to support government policy, today in a world bereft of grand strategic thinking it is nothing more than grand political stunt to air reinforce the political ideology of the day. If a business was directed with a structure such as this it would be swiftly bankrupt. Unless it was a money printing business, and even then they'd struggle... oh wait.
 
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