Countdown to the Budget

If pension tax relief was reformed to a flat rate then the most likely outcome would be 30%. Delinking income tax relief from the rate of income tax is a very dangerous precedent for the future though, as it gives another easy lever to the exchequer to raise funds again in the future by tweaking that flat rate downwards.

I think such a move would hit the Conservatives very hard at the polls, and I'm not sure they'd risk that with the government in such a precarious position. It would also ruin any prospects Hammond may have for leadership in the future.
 
If pension tax relief was reformed to a flat rate then the most likely outcome would be 30%. Delinking income tax relief from the rate of income tax is a very dangerous precedent for the future though, as it gives another easy lever to the exchequer to raise funds again in the future by tweaking that flat rate downwards.

I think such a move would hit the Conservatives very hard at the polls, and I'm not sure they'd risk that with the government in such a precarious position. It would also ruin any prospects Hammond may have for leadership in the future.

Hammond is a massive fan of it though and he has to get money from somewhere. The alternative of putting up higher rate tax is a no no, more so than pension tax relief. Shrugs. We will know soon enough.
 
There is another version of reform going around, and I think that's more likely - essentially reform of tax relief relative to age. I've posted the principle behind it before, but cannot find it now. Essentially it would work something like a starting rate of tax relief of 75% less your age in years. So a 20 year old gets 55% tax relief and a 60 year old gets 15%. This ticks a lot of boxes from the chancellor's perspective

- although relatively simple it is complex compared to the current system. Complex is good, as the truth can be spun in a number of different ways
- doesn't explicitly penalise higher rate tax payers
- pleases younger voters
- pleases the exchequer, as younger savers can't afford to save much and old savers who can save more receive less tax relief

Pensions are going to be targeted one way or another. I'm sure the Daily Mail have several dozen headlines lined up in anticipation.
 
There is another version of reform going around, and I think that's more likely - essentially reform of tax relief relative to age. I've posted the principle behind it before, but cannot find it now. Essentially it would work something like a starting rate of tax relief of 75% less your age in years. So a 20 year old gets 55% tax relief and a 60 year old gets 15%. This ticks a lot of boxes from the chancellor's perspective

- although relatively simple it is complex compared to the current system. Complex is good, as the truth can be spun in a number of different ways
- doesn't explicitly penalise higher rate tax payers
- pleases younger voters
- pleases the exchequer, as younger savers can't afford to save much and old savers who can save more receive less tax relief

Pensions are going to be targeted one way or another. I'm sure the Daily Mail have several dozen headlines lined up in anticipation.

Too complex. It would need to go down in chunks every 5 or 10 years.
 
Hi

If this lame gov gives so-called first-time buyers another incentive it will just boost/stabilise the property prices for a short period. In London, property prices going south as landlords bailout and prospective buyers fear a crash plus the extra 3% stamp on second+ property. I want prices to crash so we can add to our rental portfolio as we are getting an average ye;id of 5.5%
 
Interesting Sky poll. According to this the Cons main support is the over 55's. Going after pensions could backfire as badly as the pastie tax.
https://news.sky.com/story/inter-ge...the-economy-revealed-ahead-of-budget-11137784

Why though? If he goes after pension contribution relief that isn’t going to affect any of their core supporters who are already retired or have had that relief most of their Life? It’s only going to annoy the young again who don’t vote for them anyway
 
Trust, nothing in there for you if you have worked hard all of your life, worked hard and retired with private pension, own your property/s. Conservatives lied just like politicans do, EG "those that have worked/work hard will be rewared." Statment is true to an extent, EG pay more in taxes inc car taxes if you buy a car that is 40k plus new, higher insurance for you car, home, life, medical etc, less tax relife on your buyToLet, reductions in pensions releife, winter fuel payments going....
 
They'll want to get into surplus, because they know Labour will win the next general election, and they know Labour will put us back into deficit again, and that's how they'll win it back at the next general election.

Now go and look at the surplus/deficit figures over the last 35 years and see that we have only ran a (very small) surplus for ~5 of those years and most of those were under Labour.
 
Trust, nothing in there for you if you have worked hard all of your life, worked hard and retired with private pension, own your property/s. Conservatives lied just like politicans do, EG "those that have worked/work hard will be rewared." Statment is true to an extent, EG pay more in taxes inc car taxes if you buy a car that is 40k plus new, higher insurance for you car, home, life, medical etc, less tax relife on your buyToLet, reductions in pensions releife, winter fuel payments going....

Well it isn’t so black and white today. There are ways to still play the game.
 
Now go and look at the surplus/deficit figures over the last 35 years and see that we have only ran a (very small) surplus for ~5 of those years and most of those were under Labour.
What's that got to do with it? Listen to what current labour are saying they would do. Borrow. Massively.
 
What's that got to do with it? Listen to what current labour are saying they would do. Borrow. Massively.

It's got to do with the point you were trying to make that the Tories want to get into a surplus to offset a deficit Labour will run, which is nonsense. Both sides run deficits all the time, there is nothing wrong in borrowing massively and running a deficit as long as you invest that money wisely and achieve growth to outstrip your debt repayments.
 
What's that got to do with it? Listen to what current labour are saying they would do. Borrow. Massively.

Funny how so many has forgotten it was Labour that got us here to begin with. Funny how so many has forgotten Labour from 2010. 7 years ago and so many people want to repeat it again?

It's got to do with the point you were trying to make that the Tories want to get into a surplus to offset a deficit Labour will run, which is nonsense. Both sides run deficits all the time, there is nothing wrong in borrowing massively and running a deficit as long as you invest that money wisely and achieve growth to outstrip your debt repayments.

No government invests money wisely. Not in a long time at least in this country let alone others.
 
Funny how so many has forgotten it was Labour that got us here to begin with. Funny how so many has forgotten Labour from 2010. 7 years ago and so many people want to repeat it again?

Wow, such revisionism.

Pray tell us how the Tories, who supported every spending plan and financial deregulation Labour enacted....and wanted them to go further, would have not had exactly the same outcome from the GLOBAL financial crash caused by the American sub-prime mortgage fraud.
 
Labour screwed up the preparation for a crash like that, even George Osbourne has admitted it wasn't Labour's 'fault'.
 
Well following Laura Kuenssberg twitter, and apparently there will be no changes to public sector pay. But a promise of reform.

So looking at the "expected" bits in the budget. No pay rise for me, oh and the car I drive could be hit with a hike in fuel duty. But still wont know exactly until after 12:30.
 
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