Countdown to the Budget

Greebo said:
Really? No stamp duty up to £300k and minimal up to £500k? Thats just going to stoke up the housing market again. Houses are too expensive as it is.
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There really isn't any solution to that problem. First time buyers are particularly vulnerable to falling house prices. I can't see them rushing out to buy a property in the knowledge that they will be immediately plunged into negative equity. I equally can't see a lender lending on that basis either, without substantially higher deposits.

For first time buyers, the only good drop in prices is a temporary one. Allowing them a foot on the ladder, before prices rise again.

At least the stamp duty change gives them an edge over people who already own a property.

Higher prices are also easier to absorb because it can be added to the mortgage. Stamp Duty needs to be paid in cash on completion.
 
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Greebo said:
Really? No stamp duty up to £300k and minimal up to £500k? Thats just going to stoke up the housing market again. Houses are too expensive as it is.
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The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), the Government's own independent forecasting body, immediately predicted that the savings on tax would simply mean higher prices, since they will mean first-time buyers can put the money towards higher deposits.

"Thus the main gainers from the policy are people who already own property, not the FTBs themselves", the OBR said.
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They knew that, its just a means of giving their mates even more money whilst appearing to give a monkeys about young voters. Its just more money diverted away from the treasury and into the back pocket of massive companies, in this case National House Builders.
 
LOAM said:
They knew that, its just a means of giving their mates even more money whilst appearing to give a monkeys about young voters. Its just more money diverted away from the treasury and into the back pocket of massive companies, in this case National House Builders.
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Yes, but the OBR also said that they expect house prices to rise by 0.3%, which on a £200,000 house equates to a £600 rise. In essence you're still saving £900 compared to the old system.
 
Robi said:
Yes, but the OBR also said that they expect house prices to rise by 0.3%, which on a £200,000 house equates to a £600 rise. In essence you're still saving £900 compared to the old system.
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Well only if the seller doesn't simply add the old stamp duty price onto the asking price, which is what the OBR is alluding to.
 
Something else that I completely missed at the start was the announcement that it was expected that the economy will be £45 billion smaller in 2021 than predicted as recently as March.
 
LOAM said:
Well only if the seller doesn't simply add the old stamp duty price onto the asking price, which is what the OBR is alluding to.
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The OBR stated that they expect house prices to rise by 0.3% as a result of the removal in stamp duty. Surely this projection factors in the likelihood of what you mentioned?
 
Robi said:
The OBR stated that they expect house prices to rise by 0.3% as a result of the removal in stamp duty. Surely this projection factors in the likelihood of what you mentioned?
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You are correct, that is what they have said yes. Personally I think you will see vendors increasing it by the entire stamp duty percentage.
 
Not bad at all - was dreading VAT changes and IR35 changes but it seems they are put off until the next one at least


GinG said:
Has there been any mentions of pay increases for public workers such as nurses & police?
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He said they were doing some sort of extra review and the results would be submitted to the pay review board and if it was more than the usual then the gov would put their hand in their pocket and cover the extra
 
Freakbro said:
More borrowing.

Which is fine when the Tories do it, but it seems to send people into a frothy rage if Labour want to do it
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Yes but while the Tories have borrowed a bit here and there to provide some of the items in todays budget, Labours stance is to renationalise everything and throw money around like you can print the stuff......

So on one hand I guess a dozen billion or so has been "borrowed" to do some of these things to the probably inflated figure of 500Bn Labour will have to borrow to fund some of the things they want to do

That's the difference and the reason why.....
 
jimjamuk said:
Yes but while the Tories have borrowed a bit here and there to provide some of the items in todays budget, Labours stance is to renationalise everything and throw money around like you can print the stuff......

So on one hand I guess a dozen billion or so has been "borrowed" to do some of these things to the probably inflated figure of 500Bn Labour will have to borrow to fund some of the things they want to do

That's the difference and the reason why.....
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Please link me your source which substantiates the "dozen billion or so" and the "500Bn Labour will have to borrow to fund some of the things they want to do"?
 
jimjamuk said:
Yes but while the Tories have borrowed a bit here and there to provide some of the items in todays budget, Labours stance is to renationalise everything and throw money around like you can print the stuff......

So on one hand I guess a dozen billion or so has been "borrowed" to do some of these things to the probably inflated figure of 500Bn Labour will have to borrow to fund some of the things they want to do

That's the difference and the reason why.....
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True, but there's also a difference between borrowing for capital investment and borrowing to pay for the day to day, that's also a difference between those scenarios

The Labour method is riskier as your investment has to stimulate growth but it is trying, whereas today's budget was safer but did nothing to try and get us out of this slump.
 
Robi said:
Please link me your source which substantiates the "dozen billion or so" and the "500Bn Labour will have to borrow to fund some of the things they want to do"?
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This isn't SC and I clearly gave guesstimates to both those numbers an stated that the 500Bn number is probably inflated but was used by boring Phil in his budget speech so probably not believable. I have no idea how much todays budget cost but given the figures are included in the deficit numbers in the budget those haven't gone up that much so who knows 10Bn, 20 - no idea

Labours policies are all out there to see though a nationalisation is on the cards along with money for the NHS etc etc etc - all Im saying is the Labour borrowing are on a completey different scale to the Tory one. Its got to be 150Bn+ to just cover Royal Mail, National Grid, Railways, Water (cant remember what else was on the list) and that's before putting more money into public services

TBH I think it should be a bit more than it is at the moment but nothing on the scale of the Labour plans
 
Freakbro said:
True, but there's also a difference between borrowing for capital investment and borrowing to pay for the day to day, that's also a difference between those scenarios

The Labour method is riskier as your investment has to stimulate growth but it is trying, whereas today's budget was safer but did nothing to try and get us out of this slump.
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I don't disagree - who knows maybe it would pay off. The risk is though a whole new definition of slump if it were to go wrong
 
Skillmister said:
inb4 first time buyer clients who completed in the last month or 2 asking if they can get refunds. Glad I didn't have any so far this week, they'd be furious :D
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I'm one of them. Frankly I don't care on the grand scale of things it's peanuts. Might have helped us do a little more work to the place though. :(
 
Uther said:
OBR already saying it will just push house prices up. That worked well then. :rolleyes:
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and then cost more as that part will be added to mortgage and accrue interest

so costs the government revenue and doesn't save anything just defers the cost
 
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