Yes I agree..
A few times I have thought about my next car may well be a electric car but I worry know how am going to charge it due to my on street parking..
How long until manufacturers go completely electric?
- Thread starter Amp34
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A few times I have thought about my next car may well be a electric car but I worry know how am going to charge it due to my on street parking..
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Personally I'd go electric when the range was at 200+ miles, the recharge time is under 15 mins, changing out batteries was free and the cost premium was no more than £2K on a petrol or diesel equivalent. I think that's what we wall want but we're not currently getting their and thus there is no real incentive over a bogo petrol car. Unless those standards are met, we're not seeing any major shift at all. I respect the folks like Elon but if it's not affordable for the many, it's pretty much pointless.
The best way would be swappable battery packs, but all manufacturers would need to standardize them or it just won't work. It could easily be something done at petrol/service stations.
But right now EVs have a narrow scope of usefulness. If you don't do many miles, buy a used petrol car. If you do lots of miles, an EV isn't viable.
But right now EVs have a narrow scope of usefulness. If you don't do many miles, buy a used petrol car. If you do lots of miles, an EV isn't viable.
The improvements in battery tech in just two years is astounding.
Then there's Super Capacitors.
No driveway ?
Lamp post charging !
As for "Road Tax" ?
ANPR covered Pay by mile is already installed everywhere. There is no escape !
Then there's Super Capacitors.
No driveway ?
Lamp post charging !
As for "Road Tax" ?
ANPR covered Pay by mile is already installed everywhere. There is no escape !
Tesla already is
. But in all serriousness SMART will be fully electric during 2019.https://www.topgear.com/car-news/frankfurt-motor-show/smart-will-go-ev-only-2019
Fuel will go the same way as tobacco, they will keep putting the tax up as less people use it. Eventually it will come from other taxation and ANPR based tolls are likely to be the biggest contender.
Have you never been to a motorway service station? There is at least 2 rapid chargers at everyone, if Tesla are there they will have 8+ normally.
Guernsey is ideal for EV, just look at what Aukney has done, they have more EV's than anyone. You don't even need good tech/fast chargers, 3 pin plugs would do the job out there. You'll do well to run out even in an old Leaf with low speed limits and hardly any roads. Going to need some ICE to use on the mainland for now though I guess.There only 2 charging points in my whole island and them spaces are normally used by people to just park there car while they go shopping in town or to work...
We have over 60,000 vehicles on the island and only 2 pubilc charging points
Well the first one EV's are pretty much there, the up coming Kona, Nero and Model 3 can all hit that number, as can next years Leaf and plenty of other incoming models should be there or there about in the next few years. By 2020 there will be a lot of competing models about to do that sort of range.
Charging in under 15 mins isn't going to happen with today's tech or any tech or any upcoming developments, charging speed is pretty much dictated by pack size but the bigger the pack the longer it takes to charge. A better metric is miles added per hour and current CCS (admittedly hardly any chargers currently) and supercharging tech is about 300 miles per hour peek. An average person needs to use them a few times per year so its not that big of an barrier compared to some of the benefits (cost per mile). You are also forgetting the weekly 15 min trip to get fuel which you will no longer have to do, that's 13 hours a year of your life back. Even if you only went every 2 weeks that still 7.5 hours, the average person will not spend that sort of time sat at a charger on long trips above what you would do in an ICE anyway (fatigue/bladder/food breaks are still needed in ICE cars).
I think the £2k cost premium is a bit of a red herring and is hardly anything over the life of the vehicle (£200 a year). You could save that in a month just on fuel if you do a decent mileage, that's before looking at servicing, tax etc. At an average 8k miles a year the fuel savings alone are £600/year and that's only going to keep going up (4p vs 12p/mile) as EV's get cheaper and fuel price increases outpace electricity.
Swapping batteries for free? That's a bit of a pipe dream.
Never going to happen, ever. Recharging is too quick and far cheaper these days.
I think we all need to take a really good look at Norway's new car stats. 50% of their new car sales are now EV or PHEV, there is about 50% split between the two. They have some pretty aggressive clean air policies of there but it is clearly causing a shift in behaviour. The top selling cars were the e-Golf and the i3, the realistic ranges of those are 140 and 100 miles only. They also saw a decline in petrol and diesel (as in the actual fuel) sales for the first time ever. Adoption in other countries will ultimately drive the market here also, it will be less economical to produce new ICE models as the number of EV models increase.
My prediction is we will see the majority of new cars will be plug in by 2025 and it will be 95-100% by 2030 and at 2030 70-80% will be BEV. The Governments target is very well 'conservative'.
The current thinking is $100/kw at the cell level puts you on par with ICE. The current average price per kwh at the cell level is $209 though most suspect Tesla is way below that already. Tesla think they will hit $100/kw at the pack level in a few years which would make ICE have the premium.
For me the biggest barrier is the complete cluster that is public charging. Right now Tesla are the only ones where you can get in your car anywhere in England and just drive to Italy without planning, signing up to multiple charging networks (just for the UK!) or have to deal with foreign networks. You can just simply get it, set the NAV, it has all your charging stops built in and you can just drive. The government or the EU really needs to step in here and regulate the space by forcing a single app account/RFID/contactless system that works on all public chargers. Charges can vary, I have no problems with that but the prospect of signing up for all kinds of accounts just isn't what normal people need.
EDIT: Forgot to say, it will be the low end of the market (Dacia, supermini's etc.) that will take the longest to go EV due to cost.
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We drive to and from the UK to Greece every summer. I cannot currently see a time in the next 20 years when an EV is practical for that. Plus there are really no EV's or infrastructure in Greece. it depends on the use case I think.
According to the Tesla, the supercharger network will to get you to Greece (and most of eastern Europe) by the end of 2019. Currently Ionity will only go as far east as Italy at the moment which is a bit short sighted. The technology and infrastructure is moving so fast, in 5 years time you will not recognize today's EV infrastructure let alone in 20 years. Just look at the last 5 years and things are accelerating rapidly. Tesla didn't exist in Europe 5 years ago, but now look at the infrastructure they have built in just a short period of time and they are tiny and still a bit niche in reality.
Bjorn Nyland recently did a road trip series from Norway to Spain which was over 2100 miles each way, which is comparable to going to Greece from the UK. He did it in an older Model S 85 but to be honest this is less relevant as soon at you get outside the cars nominal range as recharge speed is the relevant factor (A new 100D performs only slightly better than an old 85 on recharge speed and efficiency). He said for every 11 hours driving he was charging for 2:45 but you could do it in less as a couple of stops the car was ready before he was (had family and a dog with him). He said you could get that down to 2-2.5 hours with a modern Tesla and more optimal stops. He also said that if he did it in an ICE car he would normally take 1.5 hours of breaks per 11 hours driving so the difference really isn't that much. Overall your only looking at an additional 3-4 hours over a 3 day journey assuming you don't stop for other reasons, its not really a huge hardship once per year. Sure you can hammer it down quicker (in both and ICE and an EV) but you have to start asking how responsible that would be.
Most of the 'proper' EV's slated to come out over the next 5 years shouldn't be too far off the performance of an old Tesla Model S 85, some will surpass it.
That being said if I was doing it I would fly and hire a car locally. You would be there in a few hours but that's assuming you don't need a specialist vehicle or a large amount of equipment. This is one of those journeys where flying might even be cheaper at face value, any additional expense is certainly worth 2 days that's for sure again amusing you don't need a specialist vehicle or a large amount of stuff.
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This, doesn't seem like there's any easy solution for people without drive ways - will either be expensive or complicated to install charging points (likely both)
I guess with regards to road tax it could be done on a charge basis perhaps linked to VIN, that would certainly be a way to apply a tax to the less efficient vehicles as current road tax is applied for petrol & diesel vehicles based on G/KM, but would also be a way to tax the more frequent motorists in the same way there is the tax on petrol & diesel. Essentially if the government is going to loose out on getting money from motorists one way you can be damn sure they'll find another way.
There are huge infrastructure issues though with the availability of charging points, I'm sure motorway services love the idea, it gets people in there buying stuff, but also I read somewhere about the national grid itself will need upgrading to accommodate the extra power usage, especially at ~6:00pm when people get in from work and plug their cars in, it's already a peak time with people cooking dinner then, more so in the autumn and winter months when more lighting is required.
There are huge infrastructure issues though with the availability of charging points, I'm sure motorway services love the idea, it gets people in there buying stuff, but also I read somewhere about the national grid itself will need upgrading to accommodate the extra power usage, especially at ~6:00pm when people get in from work and plug their cars in, it's already a peak time with people cooking dinner then, more so in the autumn and winter months when more lighting is required.
More than likely that there will be incentives to use the timer on your car so that it doesn't start charging until later at night.
According to this article National Grid don't think that there will be an issue.
https://theenergyst.com/millions-electric-vehicles-sooner-predicted-no-sweat-says-national-grid/
Definitely. They will wait until EVs are mainstream and then slap loads of tax on them. Meanwhile old petrol cars will be reaching tax free age
I'm on my second 'BEV', I still maintain an 'ice' car as well the leaf is perfect for going back and forward to work and the shops. Longer journeys are possible but lack of chargers makes it pointless, image rocking up to the services and you are third in line of people wanting to charge it's not fun or the unit has no signal and won't start then your pretty much stuck (both of which have happened, I go between Glasgow and Newcastle frequently). The new leaf with the longer range interested me but I think my next car will be a hybrid just for convenience
In the future we will spend at least half the year in Greece, so hiring a car is not an option. I appreciate your optimism, but at the moment having to plan my lunches to coincide with charging points and taking 2 to 3 hours out of every 11 charging is going to stop me buying an EV. I could see a decent use case for a hybrid however.
EV's will be zero penetration in Greece until the prices decline substantially. The new car market is tiny in Greece and set to stay that way. It is unlikely there will be any significant EV infrastructure until the country recovers, (and then perhaps only Athens), which is predicted to be 2 generations. They are banning old diesels from the center of Athens from 2025, but I have seen no EV strategy discussed as yet. they have bigger issues.
Like I said.. Technology is moving at such an incredible rate we most likely wont even need batteries.
http://www.wired.co.uk/article/superdielectrics-supercapacitor-electric-car-battery
http://www.wired.co.uk/article/superdielectrics-supercapacitor-electric-car-battery
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Hopefully not in my lifetime.
Which is going to put the greatest tax burden on those likely to be the least able to pay. The people that will transition last will be the low income groups that can't afford a shiny new (or even relatively new) EV.
For me I'd be willing to go up to around 5k extra for an EV, which I think I would be able to recoup over a reasonable number of years (under the current regime). Unfortunately no EV car is anywhere near that yet without massive incentives. That said a lot of the savings you cite aren't likely to either be accurate, or stay that way. You're still going to have to service your vehicle each year, and maintain it. Most mechanical fixes aren't related to engines and drivetrain - suspension, steering, rust etc. The current service costs for a Model S are £450 and £700 for example (more than most other brands). In a few years time they are still likely to need many of the same repairs as an ICE vehicle.
It's also worth remembering that around half of the price of petrol at the moment is tax, so if the government change the way taxation works on ICE and electric for EV's then the price differential will change too.
This touches on one of the things I think many EV proponents miss. Yes, do stop every few hours when you're driving to have a break/food, but with an EV it will force you to stop at a large service station or location with a Fast charger. Great, except I try and spend no more time than necessary at somewhere like that. Most of my breaks are usually off a side road having lunch next to a river, or a scenic spot off the main road. Spending 40 minutes waiting to charge at a service station would be hell.
They may seem small, but these kind of things are the sort of things that add up when people decide to whether to buy a full EV vehicle, or an PHEV in future.