How long until manufacturers go completely electric?

billysielu said:
Same thing happens with combustion engines. It's about 10 years.
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There are plenty of cars from 30-40 years ago still driving around on the original engine. Rust usually kills them before the engine goes. 10 years old is nothing for a petrol engine.

Also even if it goes, you can find used engines relatively cheap. You won't find many used battery packs. Or charging circuits (because they also break).
 
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it'll start as it always does, as an option for the rich luxury market, then it'll permeate down until regular run of the mill cars can use the technology.

the problem is this is a transition that hasn't been seen since the dawn of the automobile- a complete change in infrastructure. and that's what'll dictate how quickly it happens. there's no point in manufacturers pushing mass market ev's until there's the ability to mass market charge them. as has been mentioned if we just build more power stations it kind of defeats the point.

i suspect whats more likely is the takeover of range extender type vehicles, ev only for short regular commutes but with the insurance of an ic engine waiting in the wings if needed.

the point i always go back to is that electric vehicles have existed for as long as the internal combustion engine and yet over a century later they still can't compete for mass market convenience.
 
adolf hamster said:
the point i always go back to is that electric vehicles have existed for as long as the internal combustion engine and yet over a century later they still can't compete for mass market convenience.
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I think a big part of this is that if you put as many facts and figures for and against buying one type of vehicle over another, one thing that seems to be overlooked quite often is the sheer pleasure people get from driving, which more often than not dictates what vehicle they get.
Not everyone is the same but every vehicle I've owned I've chosen it because of looks, performance and desirability way before fuel economy and lifetime running cost calculations.
It doesn't mean running costs doesn't matter, but it does mean that like most things, it's " I want that, can I afford it"
Rather than "I can afford that, do I want it."
Which an EV would end up being for me as I'm fortunate enough not to need the fuel economy so have no desire for one.
 
adolf hamster said:
i suspect whats more likely is the takeover of range extender type vehicles, ev only for short regular commutes but with the insurance of an ic engine waiting in the wings if needed.
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But that adds a lot more weight which means even less range, efficiency and even worse handling. EVs are already very heavy and it would spend most of the time carrying an engine around as dead weight.
 
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Nasher said:
If we need nuclear power to support it, then it's defiantly not really greener :/

TBH I don't know why as an island we aren't investing in tidal power. Instead building wind farms at sea...
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Wind farms at sea are really quite useful. They are cheaper than nuclear and getting cheaper. Wind farms are also not being built in places where total power is most effective.

We should be asking why we are building Hinckley C when wind combined with battery storage is cheaper and less damaging to the environment. The huge battery in Australia is transforming their wholesale energy prices and massively reducing their reliance on ‘peaker’ power stations.

There are two types of generation you can get from the sea, tidal and wave. Tidal is quite tricky and only really works in a few places in the uk. Aukney has some trial turbines in place. With tidal you still need storage to smooth out the generation as you have slack water twice a day. Neither are really ready for prime time though lots of people are working in it.

Nasher said:
There are plenty of cars from 30-40 years ago still driving around on the original engine. Rust usually kills them before the engine goes. 10 years old is nothing for a petrol engine.

Also even if it goes, you can find used engines relatively cheap. You won't find many used battery packs. Or charging circuits (because they also break).
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Engines from 30-49 years ago don’t have complex electronics (more complex than an EV),turbos, high pressure fuel injection and high compression ratios of modern engines. Frankly there is is no comparison. Cars tend to get ‘scrapped’ or parted out from that age because they start to become less reliable and as soon as a number of wear and tear parts come up for renewal and most people would rather ditch it and get a new one than repair it. It’s not worth a 3rd party repairing it because it would cost more than the resale value of the car.

There is also such a thing as 2nd hand used batteries and other parts just as there is for ICE cars. You won’t find many on the market because there are not many EV but you know that. The demand for 2nd hand parts is just as tiny because the market is still small. Supply and demand will grow as the market does.
 
The biggest problem for EVs isn't the cars or the charging infrastructure. That will all work out over time.

It's running costs. The cars are attractive at the moment because they are cheap to run; 2-4p per mile. But that's largely due to a preferential tax position. 5% VAT vs Fuel Duty & 20% VAT. How this changes over the coming years will define the success or failure of EVs. They will only sell if they remain in a positive tax position compared to petrol and diesel.
 
Nasher said:
But that adds a lot more weight which means even less range, efficiency and even worse handling. EVs are already very heavy and it would spend most of the time carrying an engine around as dead weight.
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The REX option on the i3 adds 120kg to the car, increasing range by 80 miles.

To me, whether or not it's worth the cost, added engineering complexity, and extra weight, depends on the battery range of the car. For early EVs, adding 80 miles of range was huge. But for a car with 200 or 300 miles of battery range? Is it worth the added complexity, cost, and weight? Probably not.

The idea will likely live on in hybrids, as manufacturers start to replace their ICE drivetrains with electric ones.
 
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Kenai said:
Another big consideration is the markets they operate in. The UK is pushing gently for transition but could absolutely not sustain electric only for a significant portion of the population in the next 5 years. We're a small country anyway though, look to the middle east, India, China, Brazil etc. Are they wanting these cars and how will that impact the strategies of more global manufacturers?
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China is the world's largest and fastest growing market for EVs. Of the Top 10 global EV manufacturers, 6 are Chinese. BYD are either the world's largest, or world's second largest EV manufacturer (depending on whether or not you group sales from the Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance). The Top 5 is completed with the addition of two more Chinese companies most of us have never heard of, and Tesla.

They're making a similar push on green energy.

The days where we can point at China as an excuse for complacency are over.
 
China you need a license to buy a registration to enable you to purchase an ICE car (and wait for years), you don't need any of this for an EV
 
Nasher said:
There are plenty of cars from 30-40 years ago still driving around on the original engine. Rust usually kills them before the engine goes. 10 years old is nothing for a petrol engine.
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True. I've driven a number of decidedly old cars. They always chew up a continuous stream of money in repairs. The question isn't really whether new batteries are required - they will be - but whether the timescale and cost of their replacement compares to the extra costs of repairs, servicing, and replacement of mechanical parts required in an ICE car but not an electric one.
 
Nasher said:
There are plenty of cars from 30-40 years ago still driving around on the original engine. Rust usually kills them before the engine goes. 10 years old is nothing for a petrol engine.

Also even if it goes, you can find used engines relatively cheap. You won't find many used battery packs. Or charging circuits (because they also break).
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Case in point, my Westfield engine was manufactured in 1974.
 
satchef1 said:
The days where we can point at China as an excuse for complacency are over.
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I wasn't pointing at them as an excuse for complacency, just highlighting we are ultimately a small market in the global picture and whether we push for things or not, the mass manufacture of these vehicles is likely to be driven by bigger markets than ours.
 
As an electric car owner, I'd say Infrastructure. There's barely enough to cope with the tiny proportion of electric cars we have now. Imagine if they were all electric - and there was no alternative.

There would need to be (very) quick chargers in every fuel station. There should be low output chargers in almost every parking space.

I feel a whole generation has to die off first before it really happens - so 2040 might be too soon.
 
Infrastructure is definitely holding it back, if electric is to be adopted it needs to be as convenient as petrol, irrespective of circumstance.

I pick up a new self charging hybrid on Saturday (hyundai Ioniq), would love to have either the plug in or full EV, but I have an edwardian townhouse with no off road parking, and hence nowhere to charge one, which makes them impractical really.

EV range needs to improve, or much stronger charging infrastructure needs to be in place if we want to drive adoption, especially in towns and cities where they make the most sense.
 
Have a look at what unitricity are doing in parts of London, it’s pretty much the answer (converting lamp posts and other street furniture as well as installing dedicated posts).

A cheap 7kw post will charge all but the biggest EVs from empty to full in 10 hours and the average daily usage in 1-2. Most cars spend 90% of their lives parked. If you are able to charge near your residential property the need for expensive fast fast chargers is reduced.

They money is also there and councils were not using it which in its self is madness.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/...electric-car-charge-points-unused-by-councils

You only need fast chargers on trunk roads or in places you will naturally spend an hour like Tesco but these will always be hugely more expensive than a simple 3 or 7kw post. Shell are planning on charging 40p/kWh , that’s close to diesel money.
 
Not sure if this should go in another thread. But IMO i think hydrogen makes the most sense to replace ICE. It lacks both the weight penalty and charging penalty of EVs. The lack of weight penalty is a huge plus for trucks and planes (assuming planes move to electric engines.)
 
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