How long until manufacturers go completely electric?

[Nasher]

They will either have to ship the car away or call a specialist in.

But it's a totally different skill set. You can't expect a car mechanic to know how to work on high voltage systems. You need an electrical engineer, who also knows about cars :/

 

[Nasher]

It's reading DTCs and figure out what to plug & unplug... If anything it's probably easier?

It's not like main dealers are going to get down and dirty and start doing soldering on broken boards, they just swap ECUs out these days.

But then you could say that about a server room or sub station, it's just plugs and wires right. Pretty simple

Health and safety is a large part of it. If you stick your fingers in the wrong place it's enough voltage to kill you instantly. Even more risky if something is damaged and wires are exposed, there is a short somewhere or something isn't grounded properly

 

[b0rn2sk8]

Health and safety is a large part of it. If you stick your fingers in the wrong place it's enough voltage to kill you instantly. Even more risky if something is damaged and wires are exposed, there is a short somewhere or something isn't grounded properly

As others have said working on HV components has the potential to be dangerous but the risks are very well mitigated through design. HV battery have relays which disconnect them when not in use and safety fuses to pull when you are working on a HV component, its also pretty clear which bits are HV and which are not. A few basic safety precautions and you are good to go. You really don't need to be an electrical engineer to work on these cars and the training needed isn't extensive if you are already trained on ICE. As arfoll said, its then a case of plugging in and swapping whatever it says is broken.

For normal servicing there is no reason as to why a normal indy couldn't do it, there is hardly anything to do and its mainly just a safety check. Nissan charge £150 for a 'minor' service on a Leaf, all they do is change the cabin filter and and do the normal safety check. The 'major' service is an extra £50 and includes a brake fluid change.

What Nissan don't tell you is to keep the battery warranty you have to get the battery usage report done every 12 months so basically you have to get it serviced by Nissan for the first 2 years as its included, at year 3 there is an additional fee. The report is essentially a data gathering exercise by Nissan and has limited uses for the consumer. As a part of the report you also have to consent to Nissan collecting usage information on the car. Nissan are calling it 'essential maintenance' but I can't see how they could legally refuse to decline the warranty if it wasn't done given there is no actual maintenance of the pack (it is just a data download). Either way its bad for indy's and is questionable if it is legal in the EU.

I've also heard report of Nissan refusing to honour the battery warranty on packs based on how they have been used but again given the warranty is sold as being based on mileage and age not the way you used it you have to question if that is also legal.

Tesla used to mandate you have them 'service' it to keep the warranty but quickly backed down on that.

 

[Nasher]

They couldn't refuse a warranty if the car is serviced on time, at any garage and using OEM parts. That's the law. There isn't an exception for EVs or Nissan's data collection

 

[Amp34]

As for the outback, Australia is pretty forward thinking already when it comes to EV's and renewable energy. There is already places that you can plug-in that run from east-west and 3 phase AC everywhere where there are people or roads so putting in chargers will not be a problem. Hardly anyone actually drives through the outback or even lives out there, if you want to get from one side to the other you just fly. Most transport out there is farming, mining or freight related which isn't really the target for EV's yet.

I have no idea what South America or Africa's regulations are like so I couldn't really comment.

Perhaps on the east coast, but in WA, and the NT most people drive with a spare fuel can and two spare tyres. Fuel stations can be 250km+ apart with absolutely nothing in between, and that’s just the main road up the coast. If you want to go off the road, which a lot of people do, then without a spare can of fuel you may well not make it.

It may also be “hardly anyone”, but at the same time that still leaves a significant number of people that need to be able to refuel without requiring a stable electrical supply just to get by, let alone people going on holiday, or people working.

In many parts of Africa and S America there are still issues getting non contaminated fuel (hence the comment earlier about old LandCrusiers still being built using engines designed in the 80s and 90 which are easy to work on and more amenable to dirty fuel), let alone a stable electrical supply.

Again, sure, if you do the one or two main roads through the country then you may be ok, but otherwise BEV is not going to be practical.

You can't drive from one side of Canada to the other in an EV yet but again who does that in a car...?

A lot of people, especially those with young families and people moving province to province. Again, the majority of people live along the border with the US and have access to the Transcanada highway (where almost all of the EV chargers are), but a significant proportion do not. Those people are still going to require the ability to drive long ranges (400+miles) without refueling, or the ability to carry your own fuel to recharge. When it’s -30, or -40 and you’re 200km from the nearest tow truck, possibly with no mobile signal you don’t want to be running out of fuel. There are similar issues in the US, although generally not quite that extreme.

Europe is arguably an outlier relative to most other areas of the world. It may well be one of the few areas that may truly be able to go (mostly) fully BEV in our lifetimes. Generally densely populated, relatively benign weather and affluent, with reliable electricity close by almost everywhere you go. The exception to this could be northern Scandinavia, where population density decreases significantly.

For most of the rest of the world (outside places like Japan, Korea etc) BEV is a pipe dream for a fair chunk of the population, unless there’s a step change in technology (such as a battery with a much greater power density than we see today, so people can stick a range extender into the back of their vehicle, or transport electricity and sell it in a local market etc.

 

[McPhee]

When did rural, sparsely populated, and often poor, regions of the world become the norm, and Europe become an outlier?

More new cars were sold in Europe in 2017 than in Africa, Australia, Canada, India, Russia, and South America, combined. Europe, Japan, South Korea, and China are all strongly pro-EV, and they account for more than 50% of new car sales between them. Then there's the US, which has varying support for EVs, depending on the state (and largely down to the geography, population density, and affluence of the area).

The areas of the world where EVs simply aren't practical will have a very limited effect on sales.

 

[Neil777]

When did rural, sparsely populated, and often poor, regions of the world become the norm, and Europe become an outlier?

More new cars were sold in Europe in 2017 than in Africa, Australia, Canada, India, Russia, and South America, combined. Europe, Japan, South Korea, and China are all strongly pro-EV, and they account for more than 50% of new car sales between them. Then there's the US, which has varying support for EVs, depending on the state (and largely down to the geography, population density, and affluence of the area).

The areas of the world where EVs simply aren't practical will have a very limited effect on sales.

I think it's a case of people looking for any excuse to cling on to the past.

 

[Amp34]

When did rural, sparsely populated, and often poor, regions of the world become the norm, and Europe become an outlier?

More new cars were sold in Europe in 2017 than in Africa, Australia, Canada, India, Russia, and South America, combined. Europe, Japan, South Korea, and China are all strongly pro-EV, and they account for more than 50% of new car sales between them. Then there's the US, which has varying support for EVs, depending on the state (and largely down to the geography, population density, and affluence of the area).

The areas of the world where EVs simply aren't practical will have a very limited effect on sales.

Perhaps you should look at a map sometime?

Europe is a densely populated, affluent area with good infrastructure, as I said in the previous post. It only has 1/12 of the worlds population in a relatively small area. It's a relatively unique market. I'm not discussing sales specifically, rather discussing the issues of full adoption of BEV worldwide (most car manufacturers are international companies that sell in many different markets).

As b0rn2sk8 said earlier you need to look at different markets to get an idea, but people seem to consider the market they live in as an example of the worldwide market, for people on this forum (mostly living in Europe), it's not.

I'm certainly not against BEV, but highlighting the challenges of worldwide adoption of BEV and why I think there are going to be very few car manufacturers that will (potentially ever) move to only selling BEV vehicles. Hydrogen may be the option to replace ICE, or it may be that hybrid vehicles become very common in areas with less infrastructure and less density.

in 30 years will the majority of new vehicles be EV? Probably. The question is whether there will be a time when it's practically possible for all vehicles to be BEV. The proportion of BEV/non BEV vehicles sold will vary significantly depending on region. In Europe and certain parts of the rest of the world (high density, affluent areas such as S Korea and Japan) the proportion will be much higher than in other areas, such as low density and/or poorer regions of the world. Affluent lower populated countries such as the US, Canada and Australia are going to be interesting and will probably fall somewhere between the two in BEV adoption.

I think it's a case of people looking for any excuse to cling on to the past.

Tell me how BEVs will fare in Africa then? Or how you can recharge one when you're 1000km from the nearest mains electrical unit? Or you travel 100,000km a year*?

 

[McPhee]

You know, on most of your points you're arguing with nobody; no one is trying to argue that BEVs will be suitable for everybody, that there's a future where transportation is 100% electric. There are situations where BEVs are unlikely to ever be suitable.

Personally, I don't believe a 100% BEV future looms, even in Europe. Some people have requirements that are beyond today's technology. Looking at the next 10 years (which is as far as we can go, realistically), the imminent move is toward electric drivetrains. BEVs and series hybrids will become the norm. Some manufacturers will likely stop supporting traditional drivetrains entirely. What happens from there largely depends on where battery technology goes over the next decade.

I referenced sales figures to illustrate a point; while somebody will still see opportunity in catering for small and fringe markets, the overall direction of the industry is shaped by the demands of the small number of regions which buy the majority of new cars. In this, Europe is far from being an outlier. It's one of the most important and influential markets in the world.

 

[Hawk Tuah]

Tell me how BEVs will fare in Africa then? Or how you can recharge one when you're 1000km from the nearest mains electrical unit? Or you travel 100,000km a year*?

Other than solar? I expect you'd have a free piston engine with an electric drive train.

 

[Amp34]

Other than solar? I expect you'd have a free piston engine with an electric drive train.

How big a mobile solar system would you need to be able to reliably charge your electric vehicle, how do you transport it with you?

If we ignore the public’s requirements for vehicles, which could well be charged using solar panels at the local level (there is already a push in place for local off grid solar in isolated villages, so in 20-30 years there may be enough in place to charge the occasional vehicle), how does solar solve the issue for companies and long distance drivers?

In particular I’m thinking of survey and work crews working in the desert or other remote locations. Many of these crews have up to 100 vehicles that would need recharging every evening. A large portable solar array and massive battery system could possibly work for this if they have a central camp (for that size they would have one), but there are also small groups that go out for a week or two at a time, covering hundreds of miles a day. Currently it’s possible to add a couple of thousand miles to their range with jerry cans. How will solar help them?

Perhaps this will be mitigated by solid state batteries in the future. VW have just announced their plan is to have solid state batteries with double the range of existing batteries in the late 2020s, so you may be able to get 500-600 miles from a reasonably priced consumer vehicle in the early 2030s. If that comes to pass, as they are light enough perhaps modular battery systems could be developed for those requiring longer range. 30-40kg packs that hold 50kWs you can take with you and use like some use batter packs to charge their phones on the move.

Perhaps multiple ones could be joined together and installed on the back of a lorry, for mobile refueling, or hydrogen could be used to power a generator (currently camps like above use large diesel generators and have an oil tanker for refueling).

Basically we are going to require a step change in technology, and/or hydrogen to rid all vehicles of ICE, and it’s unlikely that’s going to be realistically possible in the next 30 year IMO.

I’m not sure what you mean by piston engine free with your electric drive train? Do you mean a hybrid vehicle?

 

[Amp34]

You know, on most of your points you're arguing with nobody; no one is trying to argue that BEVs will be suitable for everybody, that there's a future where transportation is 100% electric. There are situations where BEVs are unlikely to ever be suitable.

Personally, I don't believe a 100% BEV future looms, even in Europe. Some people have requirements that are beyond today's technology. Looking at the next 10 years (which is as far as we can go, realistically), the imminent move is toward electric drivetrains. BEVs and series hybrids will become the norm. Some manufacturers will likely stop supporting traditional drivetrains entirely. What happens from there largely depends on where battery technology goes over the next decade.

I referenced sales figures to illustrate a point; while somebody will still see opportunity in catering for small and fringe markets, the overall direction of the industry is shaped by the demands of the small number of regions which buy the majority of new cars. In this, Europe is far from being an outlier. It's one of the most important and influential markets in the world.

I'd disagree with that, I think there are a fair few EV evangelicals that truly believe BEV vehicles will take over completely in the next 10-15 years (no even Hybrid or PHEV), although you're probably right regarding this forum. That was however the question I asked in the OP.

I broadly agree with all your points though. Hybrid is going to be required to take up the slack that pure BEV cannot fill, hence the government requirements allow for hybrid past 2040, rather than just pure BEV. I disagree on the market size however, those markets being discussed aren't just small fringes, but will make up a significant proportion of sales for many of the larger car manufacturers (especially as developing markets grow). In those markets the proportion of hybrids to EV will vary significantly to markets such as Europe. Will pure ICE vehicles exist in 15-20 years? Perhaps, but it will be an extremely small market IMO, and may well only be available in a very limited range of vehicles (in the argument in my previous post, I'd forsee all those vehicles being hybrid, not pure ICE or pure BEV vehicles).

Each market has it's own requirements and quirks, with most manufacturers designing vehicles to fit into them. Europe and Japan have small vehicles, North America has large Pickup Trucks, Africa has various specific vehicles, and even Australia has it's own unique set of vehicles from the large manufacturers. Outside of the small mainstream manufacturers like Jaguar the majority of mainstream manufacturers produce market specific vehicles.

The more interesting question to me however (and the point of this thread) is if we will be able to remove ICE from cars entirely, and if so what will they be replaced with - that's where the questions about replacing vehicles in remote locations come in (for example).

 

[b0rn2sk8]

Basically we are going to require a step change in technology, and/or hydrogen to rid all vehicles of ICE, and it’s unlikely that’s going to be realistically possible in the next 30 year IMO.

I agree there is going to be edge cases for along time where electric isn't going to be an option for some time, the example you gave really is an edge case. But you have to ask if the giants like VW and Toyota would even bother to continue to support the few thousand ICE vehicle sales a year for those people that sit within those edge cases or some other niche small time manufacturer pops up to service that market. I expect mainstream manufactures will pull out of markets that become niche because the volumes will not be there once BEV's fully take off in the major markets (Europe, USA, China and the richer parts of Asia). Similar to how Ford have pulled out of the 'car' market in the USA, there not selling enough to make it worthwhile.

I think what we can almost be certain about is those vehicles needed for edge cases around the world will not be produced in Europe. I say this because they will not be able to meet future emission standards (this is already happening with SUV's) without a plug or a hairdryer engine and the remaining ICE cars will just get taxed off the roads in most of Europe, certainly in western Europe and Scandinavia.

 

[Amp34]

I agree there is going to be edge cases for along time where electric isn't going to be an option for some time, the example you gave really is an edge case. But you have to ask if the giants like VW and Toyota would even bother to continue to support the few thousand ICE vehicle sales a year for those people that sit within those edge cases or some other niche small time manufacturer pops up to service that market. I expect mainstream manufactures will pull out of markets that become niche because the volumes will not be there once BEV's fully take off in the major markets (Europe, USA, China and the richer parts of Asia). Similar to how Ford have pulled out of the 'car' market in the USA, there not selling enough to make it worthwhile.

I think what we can almost be certain about is those vehicles needed for edge cases around the world will not be produced in Europe. I say this because they will not be able to meet future emission standards (this is already happening with SUV's) without a plug or a hairdryer engine and the remaining ICE cars will just get taxed off the roads in most of Europe, certainly in western Europe and Scandinavia.

To clarify, when you say electric you mean BEV or do you include hybrids and PHEV in that?

Toyota already produce vehicles for even more edge like edge cases as I mentioned earlier in the thread so a company like themselves, Ford, Landrover and many of the large manufacturers would certainly still support this requirement. Bear in mind a large proportion of these sort of vehicles are purchased by company fleets buying thousands at a time; and a large proportion of these larger manufacturers businesses are based on this sort of vehicle.

As an example Ford sell 800,000 F-series pickups a year, about a third of their total North American vehicle sales. Realistically a large proportion of them are never going to be BEV vehicles unless we have that step change in technology (putting the required two+ tonnes of batteries in some of them is going to kill their haulage capacity for example).

The same with Toyota, their J70 Landcruiser (and the replacement, currently selling ~150,000 worldwide) is unlikely to ever be fully BEV because of it's usage scenario, same with things like the Hilux and the Mitsubishi L200, the Landrover Defender replacement to name a few.

Now hybrid on the other hand. Quite possibly, but that's not BEV. I forsee most of those F series pickups being Hybrids of some kind by 2030, whether they are mild or PHEV, that's another matter.

While many of those vehicles won't be produced in Europe it's likely that a few of them will still be sold in Europe, and other manufacturers will produce similar vehicles for this requirement too, most likely similar to the current system, with a BEV or Hybrid option.

Some non comercially oriented vehicles will probably also have hybrid options, at least until there's reasonably priced 500-600 mile range EV's. It's likely companies like BMW will sill produce hybrids in their saloons and SUV's, along with most other manufacturers that produce larger vehicles designed to do longer mileage. They may not sell as many as BEV by that point, but would bridge the gap for those that need them, much like there's a choice between petrol and diesel now, depending on the vehicle and use case.

EDIT: Here's an example of what I'm talking about. An Australian "edge" case where a small industry "forced" Toyota to change things to their requirements.

https://www.whichcar.com.au/reviews/road-tests/2016-toyota-70-series-landcruiser-review

Note the vehicle doesn't use a V8 Diesel because they feel like it, but because it's the best tool for the job. Also note the fuel tank capacity, again, not there for no reason. Many of the vehicles you dismiss as "edge" cases require this sort of range and either come as standard with them (for example most Canadian F Series pickups) or are available as factory fitted options. Until BEV can challenge this sort of requirement then at the very least mild Hybrids will still be around from large manufacturers. These "edge" cases are a much bigger market than you may think.

 

[Nasher]

You finally get to own a V8, but it's a diesel...

Anti-climax.

 

[b0rn2sk8]

BEV = Battery only.

Like I said, I don't disagree there will be vehicles that need to have a long range but we know that most of those American pickups do less than 32 miles a day (11.5k/year average). Most just own them as we do hatchbacks rather than being actual commercial vehicles. The need to have a mandatory 600 miles range is pointless for most people. They really just don't travel that far, 250 miles + 120kw fast charging at a price not that much higher than ICE is the tipping point for the vast majority of people.

The point is how low do the ICE volumes need to get before a manufacturer will start to divest, they will not have the resources to have a full range of ICE and BEV alongside each-other especially against the backdrop of ever stricter emissions regulations. Once the divesting starts, the segment will die pretty quickly.

 

[McPhee]

I can't help but think discussing the future beyond the next 10-20 years is futile. The Leaf was launched in Japan 10 years ago. While the technology hasn't changed in any revolutionary ways, it has progressed further than most people expected at the time. And attitudes have changed considerably. That's true even when you look at just the last 5 years.

 

[b0rn2sk8]

So BP have bought charge master for £130m, good or bad for electrification?

While I don’t particularly want to handover a bunch more money to a multinational oil company, I can’t see this being a bad thing if BP put their money where there mouth is.

Charge master needs a significant amount of investment in order to deal with future demand. BP have a lot of money and a retail business that is going to decline over the next 20 years. It seems like a good match in thoery and the UK really needs 4-5 competing charge networks to ensure there is competition.

That being said providers of ‘domestic’ residential street chargers for places that don’t have off street parking need to be regulated. as There will be an effective monopoly in a local area (just like BT open reach). The chances of multiple networks completing in the same street is unlikely and if anything they should be restricted to residents of that street only and not be available to joe public.