How are you preparing for Brexit money wise?

dowie · 15 Oct 2018 at 21:19

edscdk said:
If no one can afford the product the price goes down..

Should be obvious but seemingly it is hard for some people to grasp. People are conflating perhaps legitimate criticism of the lack of supply of housing etc.. or perhaps just general saltiness over not having bought property themselves and the reality that prices can certainly drop in the UK housing market.

We've seen it happen already after the financial crisis.

Scam · 15 Oct 2018 at 21:43

dowie said:
We've seen it happen already after the financial crisis.

Except a slowdown in the rise of house prices does not equal a decrease in the price overall, no matter what the media would have you believe. House prices did not go down post 2007.

FoxEye · 15 Oct 2018 at 21:43

Not sure how I prepare for a completely unknowable outcome, which will be one possibility from an enormous range of possibilities. Something on a spectrum ranging from complete disaster to pretty much business as usual (not claiming the probability those outcomes is the same, mind).

I guess I'll put about the same of thought into it as I have preparing for a meteor hitting the Earth (followed by inevitable zombie apocalypse).

dowie · 15 Oct 2018 at 21:47

Scam said:
Except a slowdown in the rise of house prices does not equal a decrease in the price overall, no matter what the media would have you believe. House prices did not go down post 2007.

I'm not talking about a slow down, I'm talking about a drop in prices. Nothing to do with the media, just facts. Look at prices in 2008 dropping to 2004 levels for example. Check the Halifax or nationwide data yourself if you don't believe me.

edit - see for example the Halifax data with average price touching 200k then dropping to close to 150k...

toshj · 15 Oct 2018 at 21:50

Scam said:
Except a slowdown in the rise of house prices does not equal a decrease in the price overall, no matter what the media would have you believe. House prices did not go down post 2007.

House prices tumbled: the average UK property’s value plunged by 20 per cent over 16 months, while transaction levels slumped from 1.65 million in the decade up to the crisis to 730,000 in the year to June 2009.

It took six years for prices to return to pre-crash levels, and growth has continued since, although it has slowed in recent months (in Northern Ireland, prices are still nowhere near their pre-crisis peak), and transactions have yet to recover.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...-house-prices-uk-housing-market-a8538176.html

ultralaser · 15 Oct 2018 at 23:17

It's interesting that quite a few of you are of the mind 'I don't know what's going to happen so I'll do nothing' - it's a little like an being in Florida with a storm incoming, it might be nothing but it also might destroy your local town. Personally I'm not sure what will happen, and in that situation I'd rather have a few pennies available. I think it's a good time to save a little extra just in case the worst happens, in the scenario nothing bad happens you've skimped for a few months and have some extra cash post brexit, otherwise you've got a little bit of a nest egg to support any potential loss of income.

FoxEye · 15 Oct 2018 at 23:25

ultralaser said:
It's interesting that quite a few of you are of the mind 'I don't know what's going to happen so I'll do nothing' - it's a little like an being in Florida with a storm incoming, it might be nothing but it also might destroy your local town. Personally I'm not sure what will happen, and in that situation I'd rather have a few pennies available. I think it's a good time to save a little extra just in case the worst happens, in the scenario nothing bad happens you've skimped for a few months and have some extra cash post brexit, otherwise you've got a little bit of a nest egg to support any potential loss of income.

Well we don't know if a storm is coming or not. It's not like there's a storm coming and we're gambling that it might not hit us.

We just don't know if a storm is coming.

If someone said to you, "tomorrow nothing might happen; or a plane might crash on your house; or you might win the lottery; or you might get mugged; or your dog might get run over"... what do you do, then?

Abraxaz1 · 16 Oct 2018 at 04:22

Thinking about locking myself into a 5 year mortgage at 1.79% as I don't trust the interest rates after brexit. Is this a good idea?

200sols · 16 Oct 2018 at 06:43

dowie said:
I'm not talking about a slow down, I'm talking about a drop in prices. Nothing to do with the media, just facts. Look at prices in 2008 dropping to 2004 levels for example. Check the Halifax or nationwide data yourself if you don't believe me.

edit - see for example the Halifax data with average price touching 200k then dropping to close to 150k...

Thst graph is crazy, really shows how prices have rocketed. Prices start rapidly increasing as we opened the flood gates and net migration exploded.

Efour · 16 Oct 2018 at 07:02

I moved most of money out of the UK short term.
I'm not a clairvoyant but I'm assuming the worst case scenario with mainland Europe causing as much trouble as possible for the UK for a good while.
Uncertainty will cause financial problems short term.
Now I'm just watching it pee away as the funds it's in are being hammered by Trump's big mouth.

bayo000 · 16 Oct 2018 at 07:56

FoxEye said:
Well we don't know if a storm is coming or not. It's not like there's a storm coming and we're gambling that it might not hit us.

We just don't know if a storm is coming.

If someone said to you, "tomorrow nothing might happen; or a plane might crash on your house; or you might win the lottery; or you might get mugged; or your dog might get run over"... what do you do, then?

You're right that we don't know if the storm is coming but his point still stands. There's no harm in being a bit cautious for few month to build up some savings. Then if the storm doesn't come you can treat yourself to 2080Ti

Irish_Tom · 16 Oct 2018 at 08:53

200sols said:
Thst graph is crazy, really shows how prices have rocketed. Prices start rapidly increasing as we opened the flood gates and net migration exploded.

Correlation does not equal causation, and there are many reasons why prices started to rise rapidly from the late 90s.

Furthermore, that graph doesn't show the full picture (literally):

You can see that prices in the late 90s / early 2000s were just about back to where they were in the late 80s / early 90s, due to the bust that followed the 'Lawson Boom'.

No1newts · 16 Oct 2018 at 08:55

aa6972 said:
Good or bad, life is no doubt going to change, are you stocking up french wine, fixing your mortgage, building up a saving cushion?

Got in a 5 year fixed term £60 a month cheaper than I'm currently paying. My figuring for better or ill it will be settled in 5 years and at least I know until then that my finances are in order.

Otherwise just get on with it despite the fact it's a ******* **** show shambles which will probably kill the economy. Amusingly it will hurt those who voted for it the most so my vindictive side can at least get a good airing over the next few years

subbytna · 16 Oct 2018 at 10:19

Scam said:
Except a slowdown in the rise of house prices does not equal a decrease in the price overall, no matter what the media would have you believe. House prices did not go down post 2007.

Do you actually believe that?

dowie · 16 Oct 2018 at 10:30

subbytna said:
Do you actually believe that?

Presumably not anymore now he's seen the evidence. Some people on here do seem to have a rather skewed perspective on property ownership.

Deus Ex · 16 Oct 2018 at 10:36

25% of assets are definitely foreign assets denominated in GBP which I assume serves as a good hedge against devaluation, many others equities I own are pretty international so should be OK. I am going to stop buying shares and build up a £10-15k cash reserve now until Feb when I start a training job and my wage halves. The big question is whether to buy a property to rent spare rooms out for the two years of training or to keep it simple and rent a spare room from someone for ~£500/month.

azazl187 · 16 Oct 2018 at 11:32

Abraxaz1 said:
Thinking about locking myself into a 5 year mortgage at 1.79% as I don't trust the interest rates after brexit. Is this a good idea?

Where on earth will you get that sort of deal. Ive just gone for the lowest 3 year deal i could and it was over 2%

Lopéz · 16 Oct 2018 at 11:42

Scam said:
Except a slowdown in the rise of house prices does not equal a decrease in the price overall, no matter what the media would have you believe. House prices did not go down post 2007.

Er, they did - lots. The house I bought in 2006 had lost approximately 15% of it's value by 2011 despite some significant renovations during that period.

Dr Jack · 16 Oct 2018 at 11:45

Irish_Tom said:
Furthermore, that graph doesn't show the full picture (literally):

Isn't there a major statistical problem in adjusting house prices for RPI inflation when RPI includes house price inflation?

toshj · 16 Oct 2018 at 11:50

azazl187 said:
Where on earth will you get that sort of deal. Ive just gone for the lowest 3 year deal i could and it was over 2%

Depends on your LTV I suppose. I'm on a 5 year fix at 1.79% with Santander. Our LTV is going to go in the other direction though soon, so I imagine the percentage will shift up