Saudi Arabia: Will they ever be "allowed" Nuclear arms?

[Nasher]

They also need to plan for life after oil. Not just enforced by climate change. They enjoy enormous income now which props up their entire country, most recently they're able to put loads of that income into tourism and buildings and infrastructure. While tourism is popular I don't see it ever being a big tourist destination. So it makes sense to get head of other countries while they can afford to to understand and invest into renewable energy and setting it up with companies in other countries through investments or takeovers. That way the energy generation done in X country can still bring revenue to Qatar etc.

Yep when oil starts to decline in the near future they are going to be in trouble. They need to find new industries asap like Saudi Arabia are (they are building solar plants like crazy out in the desert. They actually listen to advice).

But they won't. They'll carry on as they are now and then collapse. Then blame US of course.

 

[ianh]

They need to find new industries asap like Saudi Arabia are (they are building solar plants like crazy out in the desert. They actually listen to advice).

Buildings mean nothing when the country hasn't got the "industrial worker" culture yet to fill them with people who understand what it means to work heavy industry, as at the minute the vast majority of those roles are filled by low wage ex-pats from Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Phillipines etc who are willing to do these industrial jobs for extremely low wages which Saudi nationals won't touch with a barge-pole.

Hence why Vision 2030 is doomed to failure, not because of a lack of money or infrastructure but because Saudi needs to change its core culture to fill these new buildings with Saudi workers and Saudis won't do the work, because all they've known for the past 70+ years is "I'm rich, pay someone else to do it" and nothings been done to change that culture.

 

[Thecaferacer]

Nuclear weapons are old hat and it's only the tinpot dictatorships who are now obsessed with obtaining them as they believe it will force other countries to listen to their inane ****.

The real bosses like China and the US are working on full control of information infrastructure systems so they can shut down an entire country dead at the flick of a switch.

 

[Amnesia]

TBH Just let all the Islamic countries have them and the West+Russia agree to just pull out and leave them all to it. Fallout might be an issue for a while I guess.

I don't think the US and Russia are ever really going to nuke each other, both know it's stupid. But India, Pakistan, Iran? These aren't civil countries with restrained leaders and they all have the same crazy idea that God will save them (even though he never has in the past).

I dont see Pakistan nuking India unless they are about to be wiped out and India doesnt need to nuke Pakistan to beat them.

Their little skirmishes will continue but i doubt its ever going to go much further than that.

 

[glenimp617]

I've worked quite a bit in the middle east. Every Arab I've ever met was lazy.

 

[malachi]

I dont see Pakistan nuking India unless they are about to be wiped out and India doesnt need to nuke Pakistan to beat them.

Their little skirmishes will continue but i doubt its ever going to go much further than that.

Yeah would be silly to nuke your neighboring country without causing collateral damage to your own country as you cant control the blast. Like if England decide nuke Scotland or Wales!

 

[edscdk]

Nuclear weapons are old hat and it's only the tinpot dictatorships who are now obsessed with obtaining them as they believe it will force other countries to listen to their inane ****.

The real bosses like China and the US are working on full control of information infrastructure systems so they can shut down an entire country dead at the flick of a switch.

the real real bosses are busy chopping up genes with CHRISPR to try and fix the worlds population issues while leaving most of their own population alive.. first thing you will know is flue killed 99% of the Chinese population (or American) or probably 99% of everyone cos it did not work quite right

 

[BowdonUK]

Well normally I'd say at some point in the future the 'How to build nuclear' file would have been slipped to them, like it was to Iran and North Korea in the past. Though Saudi Arabia is a tricky country because if it decides to go rogue, it has all the oil and is naturally in a powerful position. Allowing them to have nukes would create a monster. If they didnt have that amount of oil, then I'm sure they would have been allowed to have nukes, especially with the Iran (and Iraq) situation.

 

[NVP]

I guess not simply allowed, but aided:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. Energy Secretary Rick Perry has approved six secret authorizations by companies to sell nuclear power technology and assistance to Saudi Arabia, according to a copy of a document seen by Reuters on Wednesday.

(old) Article

Quite a detailed analysis of these Part 810 Authorisations and the avoidance of the section 123 agreement can be found in the following article.
'thebulletin.org: decoding the US secret authorizations to sell nuclear technology to saudi arabia'


Edit: @StriderX

Considering recent news about a particular family from the US going over and trying to deal in nuclear reactor/fuel, it's not much more of a stretch to go straight to arms.

Is this what you were referring to?

 

[Rroff]

I guess not simply allowed, but aided:



Quite a detailed analysis of these Part 810 Authorisations and the avoidance of the section 123 agreement can be found in the following article.
'thebulletin.org: decoding the US secret authorizations to sell nuclear technology to saudi arabia'


Edit: @StriderX

Is this what you were referring to?

Nuclear energy (power) is not a very straight forward path to nuclear weapons and IIRC it is easier to have a covert program going straight for a bomb as far as the development stage goes until you need to test it than masquerading it as nuclear energy. Though I guess it is easier to obfusicate if another country is aiding you on both nuclear energy and military use in terms of deniability, etc.

 

[Thecaferacer]

Nuclear energy (power) is not a very straight forward path to nuclear weapons and IIRC it is easier to have a covert program going straight for a bomb as far as the development stage goes until you need to test it than masquerading it as nuclear energy. Though I guess it is easier to obfusicate if another country is aiding you on both nuclear energy and military use in terms of deniability, etc.

The aim is usually just to be able to obtain or enrich Uranium 235 or Plutonium 239. Anyone with access to that material can build a crude nuclear bomb and it could be achieved by a state in complete secrecy quite easily, if they had the Uranium stored legally.

The problem comes in building long range missiles as that is a major development programme and difficult to hide as the testing obviously requries launches.

 

[Rroff]

The aim is usually just to be able to obtain or enrich Uranium 235 or Plutonium 239. Anyone with access to that material can build a crude nuclear bomb and it could be achieved by a state in complete secrecy quite easily, if they had the Uranium stored legally.

The problem comes in building long range missiles as that is a major development programme and difficult to hide as the testing obviously requries launches.

Problem is the enrichment process for weapons grade versus reactor grade is very different and that makes it easily detectable and/or alternatively requires a lot of additional infrastructure - it is far easier and simpler to go straight for a covert bomb program than to try and obfuscate or develop weapons via nuclear energy. A crude device based from reactor grade material isn't really particularly feasible.

Developing an ICBM is another matter again - to a degree it could be hidden in a space/satellite program but even that is a bit of a give away and the re-entry vehicle is prohibitive. But that isn't the only way to deliver a nuclear weapon.

 

[NVP]

it is far easier and simpler to go straight for a covert bomb program than to try and obfuscate or develop weapons via nuclear energy.

Yes, but if they want to have both nuclear energy and arms they're right on track...

 

[Tony Edwards]

Yeah would be silly to nuke your neighboring country without causing collateral damage to your own country as you cant control the blast. Like if England decide nuke Scotland or Wales!

Are we not about to do that on the 31st October?

 

[malachi]

Are we not about to do that on the 31st October?

Well...We are taking them down with us along with N. Ireland.

 

[sideways14a]

Yeah its the actual delivery system that aint all that easy for noob countries like NK to get a nuke to the target they want.
Most developed countries around the world could build a basic nuke ala Gadget with little trouble other than getting the raw material, heck most 3rd world countries could prob do it if they had some "friends"

But its not easy building an ICBM or even an intermediate range missile that can both carry a decent payload and not blow up or be blown up by the other side.
I don think any unstable or.. iffy country like Saudi or of course NK ect should have nukes, that's very well saying that because britain does have them but at the same time it is obvious many places around the world are simply to dangerous to put a massive game changer like deliverable nukes into.
So i do agree with the wests point about Iran not having them but i dont really agree with the way they are going about it.

 

[StriderX]

Yeah its the actual delivery system that aint all that easy for noob countries like NK to get a nuke to the target they want.
Most developed countries around the world could build a basic nuke ala Gadget with little trouble other than getting the raw material, heck most 3rd world countries could prob do it if they had some "friends"

But its not easy building an ICBM or even an intermediate range missile that can both carry a decent payload and not blow up or be blown up by the other side.
I don think any unstable or.. iffy country like Saudi or of course NK ect should have nukes, that's very well saying that because britain does have them but at the same time it is obvious many places around the world are simply to dangerous to put a massive game changer like deliverable nukes into.
So i do agree with the wests point about Iran not having them but i dont really agree with the way they are going about it.

A delivery system could literally be a dinghy, i'm not sure i care about an ICBM, you can literally see it launch.

The problem is and always has been nuclear terrorism, a terrorist doesn't care about MAD and giving a terrorist nation like SA or Iran any sort of help or leniency on the way to potentially providing that "service" is just offensive.

It's basically guaranteed though, so i'm not sure there's much point in worrying about "if", and simply a matter of "when", but we can certainly control the "who" for as long as necessary by not literally helping them do it. However... considering the "war on terror" *cough* Sunni support *cough* and support of terrorist nations though, this seems like a naive waste of time.

I just wonder which city will be hit first.

 

[NVP]

Maybe they're playing the long game and will eventually use it as a reason to "liberate some people"

 

[sideways14a]

Yep sneaking a nuke into Washington and blowing it up next to the WH would be a good strategy for a terrorist group aided by a country wanting to take down the US (so 90% of the planet then)

 

[Energize]

The aim is usually just to be able to obtain or enrich Uranium 235 or Plutonium 239. Anyone with access to that material can build a crude nuclear bomb and it could be achieved by a state in complete secrecy quite easily, if they had the Uranium stored legally.

The problem comes in building long range missiles as that is a major development programme and difficult to hide as the testing obviously requries launches.

"Stored legally" is a contradiction, you can't store weapons grade uranium legally, and you can't create any kind of bomb from reactor grade uranium, uranium is so weakly radioactive you can't even create a dirty bomb using it.