Trading the stockmarket (NO Referrals)

SmokeKingGun · 1 Apr 2020 at 14:20

Just went to setup a few trade plans on Halifax. Looks like stopping money being added to account and stopping limit Orders

Transfers: we have temporarily paused all inward transfers of stock and cash, and transfers between accounts.
TradePlans: you can no longer set up new TradePlans. All existing TradePlans will stay active until they trigger or expire.

Minusorange · 1 Apr 2020 at 14:46

Theophany said:
Investment markets are nothing more than a series of events that were called disastrous and believed to be insurmountable at the time. Unless we're looking at an extinction-grade event with COVID-19, I don't see how this is any different for an investor with an appropriately long time horizon to be investing in equity markets in the first place.

That isn't to diminish any of the very real issues you've raised which will have an impact on the timing and nature of the eventual market recovery, but those issues are more likely to affect the have-a-go traders who think they can time markets and pick stocks better than the rest of the market (narrator: they can't).

I get what you're saying but the unlimited QE and Fed throwing literally everything at the market to keep it up suggests to me it's not a free & open market but one that is being heavily manipulated, how can anyone have any confidence in it when right now it is being rigged and artificially propped up to the point where if it was alive it would be on life support, take away the intervention and where would we be ? The govs can't keep throwing money at it so what happens when they can no longer support it ?
The mindset of people is going to change which is going to change the rules of the game, it can't just keep going up naturally or artificially because it's simply not sustainable

MrWhippy · 1 Apr 2020 at 15:11

Andrew_McP said:
...
Market analysis is like porn... the more you think about it, the harder it gets...

Er, whatever floats your boat mate.
Who are we to judge?

silversurfer · 1 Apr 2020 at 16:27

That's without even factoring in the UK has Brexit to deal with

I dont think any of us are forex traders but anytime we discuss a price the denominator is sterling. Its most obvious in gold stocks, directly relates to gold price in sterling which ties to cable or GBP/USD. Hard to weigh them all at once but this is why I often come to the conclusion stock > cash.
I took STAN just because I recognise this level and I've had it before again circa '08 meltdown. But the value of sterling in '20 is not the same so the price cannot be that easily the same, rather confusing I still rate equity over cash presuming you dont have a (big) mortgage to be repaying asap

SLA are cheaper now then their IPO of 2006, they have merged with Aberdeen so its not the same share exactly and that merger wasnt all plain sailing, they are generally quite profitable.
I bought these for 130p near the market low over ten years ago so for scale sure they can get cheaper but I dont see Dollar spiking [DXY UUP] and I dont think this industry or banking is especially the focus of this current issue

BennyC · 1 Apr 2020 at 16:57

LLOY slowly bleeding out this afternoon, down 11.4% at one point to mid 28 :eek:

Picked up a little so as not to miss out but pittance in the grand scheme of what's planned.

silversurfer · 1 Apr 2020 at 17:26

Was 70p on the brexit vote, oh dear. At best I think its nearer to 100 but the price doesnt actually matter as much as results. They have been buying back stock which was sensible when its unpopular and now they cant do that but the value is still there.
Great article on INTC when it was sub 20 just pointing its fine if it stays that price forever and they were right but it doubled anyway.

SmokeKingGun · 1 Apr 2020 at 17:49

was going to put limit order on Lloyds but cant even add funds to Halifax account. Not impressed with Halifax. They have suspended tradeplans so couldn't set even a low limit price (was going try for around 26p) and then average down few months down line if fell further.

Maybe blessing in disguise who knows.

There are bigger things than making few quid at moment but still annoying.

BennyC · 1 Apr 2020 at 17:55

silversurfer said:
Was 70p on the brexit vote, oh dear. At best I think its nearer to 100 but the price doesnt actually matter as much as results. They have been buying back stock which was sensible when its unpopular and now they cant do that but the value is still there.
Great article on INTC when it was sub 20 just pointing its fine if it stays that price forever and they were right but it doubled anyway.

Yep, in 2012-2013 I dabbled in shares but now predominantly hold ETF's.

I bought today cheaper than I did 6-7 years ago. Think I got out around 65.

These drops and opportunities have me lining up share purchases again for mid/long term holds, currently 30 with a 20-25 year retirement goal.

Surveyor · 1 Apr 2020 at 18:10

Psycho Sonny said:
made 700% on my latest investment - completely serious too. maybe even higher as i've still got some to sell. made my initial investment times 7 so far. could break the 1000% barrier.

Calling it an investment is over-egging the pudding somewhat.

Investment implies you saw this coming and were ahead of the game in purchasing at the "normal" price ready to sell at a higher price. In reality you're just flogging stuff you happened to have at home.

Trusty · 1 Apr 2020 at 21:08

Ironic Namesake said:
What are you planning to short, DIA?

I'm holding some puts for 15/05 expiry, should be looking good on open.

Long vix, short Russell & DOW

Might short the ProShares high yield as well..

Theophany · 1 Apr 2020 at 22:34

Minusorange said:
I get what you're saying but the unlimited QE and Fed throwing literally everything at the market to keep it up suggests to me it's not a free & open market but one that is being heavily manipulated, how can anyone have any confidence in it when right now it is being rigged and artificially propped up to the point where if it was alive it would be on life support, take away the intervention and where would we be ? The govs can't keep throwing money at it so what happens when they can no longer support it ?
The mindset of people is going to change which is going to change the rules of the game, it can't just keep going up naturally or artificially because it's simply not sustainable

It's the paradigm we've been in since the 1970s after the Gold Standard was dropped but only since 2008 seen come to bear. Broad money bears no relation to narrow money, i.e. the 'pound in your pocket' as Harold Wilson put it, because it is not a medium of exchange. It's a way for countries and central banks to print a solution to a problem. A decade ago people were crapping on Modern Monetary Theory as a crackpot theory and all of a sudden you have Chief Investment Officers of major investment houses and chief economists backtracking on how it actually may be a viable theory.

The minute you start betting against markets in the long term is, in my opinion, when you start betting against capitalism. We can all argue the toss about when is the absolute optimal point to invest, which is fair debate and really nobody knows where the absolute bottom of the market is until everybody else does because it's in our collective rear view mirror. But if we're truly in a situation where we're saying that the entire system could collapse and the financial apocalypse occurs, then frankly talking about stocks is pointless because we should be stockpiling tinned goods and shotgun shells.

I'm going to be the tinfoil hatter who calls it first in this thread: the old paradigm of fiscal rules and debt-to-GDP ratios is dead (and has been for a decade at least).

Fusion · 2 Apr 2020 at 07:42

Brent up over 10% this morning:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52115442

regulus · 2 Apr 2020 at 08:25

All we have is bad news in NZ yet the local equities continue to climb. Decided to finally take some profit today and sold a small position that's 68% up for a reason I simply cannot logically fathom. Had I been 68% down it would've made much more sense. Anyway, whatever, taking the money and that'll cover expenses for about 4 months.

Simon · 2 Apr 2020 at 08:29

Fusion said:
Brent up over 10% this morning:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52115442

Amazing what a trump tweet can do.

Minusorange · 2 Apr 2020 at 11:44

Theophany said:
I'm going to be the tinfoil hatter who calls it first in this thread: the old paradigm of fiscal rules and debt-to-GDP ratios is dead (and has been for a decade at least).

An interesting point, if this was/is the case then what are the new rules ? Everytime the market tanks, govs magic money printers go into overtime and bailouts for everyone ? Doesn't this mean there's no longer no risk in investing and everyone is a winner because the "value" can only ever go up ?

Interesting you talk about betting against capitalism, surely the above mean capitalism is dead and we're in some new form of system, a hybrid of capitalism and socialism, capitalism when markets rise but flip the switch to socialism when things turn bad ?

StriderX · 2 Apr 2020 at 11:50

Minusorange said:
An interesting point, if this was/is the case then what are the new rules ? Everytime the market tanks, govs magic money printers go into overtime and bailouts for everyone ? Doesn't this mean there's no longer no risk in investing and everyone is a winner because the "value" can only ever go up ?

Interesting you talk about betting against capitalism, surely the above mean capitalism is dead and we're in some new form of system, a hybrid of capitalism and socialism, capitalism when markets rise but flip the switch to socialism when things turn bad ?

There are no rules now, there never was any, it was a big fallacy to pretend governments had control when they gave it all up.

Efour · 2 Apr 2020 at 12:55

It is indeed complete BS.

Minusorange · 2 Apr 2020 at 14:13

More than 6.65 million people filed for unemployment benefits in the US last week, the latest official figures to highlight the devastating economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the American economy.

As reports emerged of long lines at unemployment offices, jammed phone lines and broken websites across the US, the federal labor department said Thursday that a new record number of people sought benefits after losing their jobs in the week ending 27 March.

Some 3.3 million had filed for unemployment the previous week, bringing total claims to 9.95 million for the two weeks. More people have filed for unemployment in the last two weeks than filed in the last six months.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/02/us-unemployment-coronavirus-economy

Futures were up but seem to be coming down now since this news broke, wonder if we're due another breaker hitting day ?

Ironic Namesake · 2 Apr 2020 at 14:44

Opened short on ZM

Minusorange said:
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/02/us-unemployment-coronavirus-economy

Futures were up but seem to be coming down now since this news broke, wonder if we're due another breaker hitting day ?

I'd seen estimates of 5.5 million or so already, so I presume already priced in - quite flat currently.

ZM short from yesterday is looking quite nice today.

Theophany · 2 Apr 2020 at 16:07

Minusorange said:
An interesting point, if this was/is the case then what are the new rules ? Everytime the market tanks, govs magic money printers go into overtime and bailouts for everyone ? Doesn't this mean there's no longer no risk in investing and everyone is a winner because the "value" can only ever go up ?

Interesting you talk about betting against capitalism, surely the above mean capitalism is dead and we're in some new form of system, a hybrid of capitalism and socialism, capitalism when markets rise but flip the switch to socialism when things turn bad ?

The government's role isn't to prop up investment markets as that would seriously undermine them, but in extreme events such as 2008 or this, it is justifiable to get the old inkjets down at the Bank of England fired up. There will always be risk - you can't account for a company going belly up due to chronic mismanagement, changing consumer tastes or criminal activity, for example. But if you're holding a diversified portfolio that is adequately managed over a long enough time horizon, then those risks are much lower than for an investor trying to pick short-term wins by picking stocks.

I call it capitalism for the sake of convenience and familiarity, but I think you're absolutely spot on pointing out that it bears more resemblance to a more hybrid style system. And when you look at inflation since 2008 and compare it to historically 'normal' levels of inflation going back to say 1980*, you're looking at an average of around 2.5% per annum compared to over 4% per annum and all the while we now have a generation of people who have never experienced interest rates above 5%. With all that easy money being pumped around the system, inflation has actually come down which is at odds with accepted classic economics - if the supply of money increases at a greater rate than a country's output, it causes inflationary pressure. Yet the UK's GDP has never recovered to its 2007 peak.

*I used from 1980 as the extreme levels of inflation in the 1970s would've unfairly skewed the average and the 1980s are a far more comparable period given the explosion in financial services and consumer investing.