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Trading the stockmarket (NO Referrals)

Discussion in 'General Discussion' started by mcast123, Apr 2, 2009.

  1. silversurfer

    Capodecina

    Joined: Jul 13, 2004

    Posts: 18,940

    Location: Stanley Hotel, Colorado

    Try sharebuilder, regular on a day buy scheme with min 2 quid charge
    I would guess BP can expand upwards from here but really should be looking or examining oil itself. Anyhow of course I put a stoploss and like a magnet the market wants to go there as soon as I do so its partly gone but I aim to trade it anyway.
    yea the afternoon price shows why, 340 is a good foothold right upto 370. It can repeat this action.
     
    Last edited: Apr 2, 2020
  2. Trusty

    Capodecina

    Joined: Mar 12, 2006

    Posts: 11,544

    Location: On A Rocket

    Do you not think BP is gonna follow the general market though?

    I personally think the market is going down again, so it looks likely that BP will test those mid 200's again.
     
  3. Minusorange

    Soldato

    Joined: Nov 25, 2005

    Posts: 5,440

    Worth a read https://finance.yahoo.com/news/big-short-michael-burry-bearish-101844573.html same guy who predicted the 08 bubble has been predicting an index/etf bubble since last year, I think it's something like 50/50 of the entire market is funded via the index/etf's vs actively managed funds with the majority of investors in those funds doing zero price discovery on what their passive funds represent
     
  4. macuser

    Hitman

    Joined: Feb 3, 2004

    Posts: 632

    Still licking my wounds from the last month :(

    However, been keeping an eye on Begbies Traynor Group PLC 'Confidential Business Rescue Advice. Licensed Insolvency Practitioners - the UK's No.1 for Business Recovery' quoted from their website. Looks like these guys could still be busy even with all the government support for businesses. Bought in at 66.20 a week ago. They are listed on the AIM Index!!

    Not even looking at my Pensions/SIPPS :(
     
    Last edited: Apr 2, 2020
  5. Mushy Peas

    Capodecina

    Joined: Sep 1, 2010

    Posts: 10,534

    Location: Under the thumb.

    I totally agree with him, and many others have been calling that bubble before he was - if you're investing in cap-weighted, index-replicating vehicles then there's naturally going to be a top-heavy distribution to the influx of assets. That's why I never recommend my clients use passives. Just look at how much money Vanguard has sucked in over the past few years and then compare that to how the top 5 stocks in the S&P500 have driven most of its growth and it isn't a massive logical leap to join the dots. It's great on the way up, but it will accelerate just as much, if not more, on the way down. As much as I respect Jack Bogle, he created a monster.

    When the market is on a tear, everybody yaks on about why active management is dead and is too expensive and adds no value, yet those same people are the ones filling their nappies when the market is on a downturn.
     
  6. dl8860

    Mobster

    Joined: Jul 25, 2010

    Posts: 3,014

    Location: Surrey

    Where's the proof that active management is better in a downturn that passive? I'm all for passive and I haven't yet filled my nappy, what's the rationale for thinking people who prefer passive investment are more likely to **** themselves? I do agree somewhat the the big influx in passive funds is a bit of a one-time artificial inflation though.
     
  7. Marvt74

    Capodecina

    Joined: Feb 20, 2004

    Posts: 14,229

    Location: Higher Walton

    Should get my bonus in a few weeks. Was intending to pay off my credit card (0%) which i'd used for laser eyes.

    Might stick it in a tracker for 12 months instead.
     
  8. booyaka

    Capodecina

    Joined: Jan 19, 2006

    Posts: 13,046

    Lets not go there please....:p:p:p
     
  9. BennyC

    Capodecina

    Joined: Sep 25, 2006

    Posts: 13,840

    Left a limit order this afternoon to pick up more LLOY.
     
  10. silversurfer

    Capodecina

    Joined: Jul 13, 2004

    Posts: 18,940

    Location: Stanley Hotel, Colorado

    Oil is doing well at present but I guess BP is going in line with usage, GDP. Because of the whole index thing it can sell off I guess, in general prices can be inaccurate. Burry isnt wrong but I dont know its something to fear exactly, people will just move to performing funds. He doesnt run an open fund afaik, who can blame him
    Posting up some gobbly gook, we're down today and in the week but staying above 244 is still bullish for SPY on daily bars. Losing this area gives us the dynamic of '08; bailout then more falls for like 5 months anyway. Within that were some prices which were good to hold months before market generally had a bottom.
    Its just harder to know which, I doubt deaths have entered decline as a rate and who is really going to relax before some cure, treatment or vaccine progresses so its not likely inversely market is at worse. However markets act in anticipation mostly, except unknowns
     
  11. Trusty

    Capodecina

    Joined: Mar 12, 2006

    Posts: 11,544

    Location: On A Rocket

    The weekly chart on the DOW looks horrendous, so my take is that its going to find a new lows over the next few weeks, i wouldn't be surprised if we get some news over the weekend that kick starts the whole thing off.
     
  12. StriderX

    Caporegime

    Joined: Mar 18, 2008

    Posts: 25,397

    I really don't get why oil is back up? Russia has said no multiple times... I mean there's literally a limit on how much storage there is, that'll stop everyone anyway.
     
  13. Trusty

    Capodecina

    Joined: Mar 12, 2006

    Posts: 11,544

    Location: On A Rocket

    Forward inventory, businesses that can afford to do it are still getting it at a cheaper price than what it will be in 2 or 3 years time.
     
  14. Minusorange

    Soldato

    Joined: Nov 25, 2005

    Posts: 5,440

  15. StriderX

    Caporegime

    Joined: Mar 18, 2008

    Posts: 25,397

  16. Mushy Peas

    Capodecina

    Joined: Sep 1, 2010

    Posts: 10,534

    Location: Under the thumb.

    My clients' money is down, since the February peak, on average 12% versus the market being closer to 25%. If you're buying passives you're getting the market, less fees. :confused:

    e: if you really want to go hell for leather, if you're buying passives then you're usually buying cap-weighted index trackers, which means you're fly fishing with a lead weight at the end of your rod, i.e. it goes up quickly but drops just as fast.
     
  17. morguk

    Wise Guy

    Joined: Dec 5, 2007

    Posts: 1,152

    Many invest for the long term, so unless expecting to cash out on a crash, it doesn't matter how much a fund drops, what matters is the overall growth over say 20 years. From everything I've seen, passive beats active funds 9 times out of 10 when fees are included.
     
  18. Skeptic

    Mobster

    Joined: Oct 18, 2002

    Posts: 4,062

    Location: UK

    Great update re: their debt. Expecting a rise over coming sessions. Not too late to buy in, although the open may be up from the close on Friday.
     
  19. silversurfer

    Capodecina

    Joined: Jul 13, 2004

    Posts: 18,940

    Location: Stanley Hotel, Colorado

    Really depends on the fees and how its structured, active doesnt have to be very expensive. Im mostly concerned on whether they offer any discernible advantage and thats why many goto passive, but thats partly on the customer failing to find a good product. Also I can trade passive myself without many costs, someone doing that is being active management.


    20 years is a bit long, 6 years maybe 10 but I dont think we'll be waiting that long for current assets to be worth more then the cash required to own them. Any spike down from here is why scaling works, market gets irrational. The shale oil and gas isnt going away and will exist in 50 years from now but the companies who borrowed to then try and pay it back with extracted resource sales, they'll be taken over by larger firms. The debt will get defaulted on, I dont think this factor by itself is enough to call deflation or cash is king situation. More relevant is recovery rates % etc. on this virus and Im not clear on that.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Apr 4, 2020
  20. Vanilla

    Sgarrista

    Joined: Oct 18, 2002

    Posts: 9,164

    Edit. Wrong thread