Do you not think BP is gonna follow the general market though?
I personally think the market is going down again, so it looks likely that BP will test those mid 200's again.
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Do you not think BP is gonna follow the general market though?
I personally think the market is going down again, so it looks likely that BP will test those mid 200's again.
Soldato
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Worth a read https://finance.yahoo.com/news/big-short-michael-burry-bearish-101844573.html same guy who predicted the 08 bubble has been predicting an index/etf bubble since last year, I think it's something like 50/50 of the entire market is funded via the index/etf's vs actively managed funds with the majority of investors in those funds doing zero price discovery on what their passive funds represent
Still licking my wounds from the last month 
However, been keeping an eye on Begbies Traynor Group PLC 'Confidential Business Rescue Advice. Licensed Insolvency Practitioners - the UK's No.1 for Business Recovery' quoted from their website. Looks like these guys could still be busy even with all the government support for businesses. Bought in at 66.20 a week ago. They are listed on the AIM Index!!
Not even looking at my Pensions/SIPPS
However, been keeping an eye on Begbies Traynor Group PLC 'Confidential Business Rescue Advice. Licensed Insolvency Practitioners - the UK's No.1 for Business Recovery' quoted from their website. Looks like these guys could still be busy even with all the government support for businesses. Bought in at 66.20 a week ago. They are listed on the AIM Index!!
Not even looking at my Pensions/SIPPS
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I totally agree with him, and many others have been calling that bubble before he was - if you're investing in cap-weighted, index-replicating vehicles then there's naturally going to be a top-heavy distribution to the influx of assets. That's why I never recommend my clients use passives. Just look at how much money Vanguard has sucked in over the past few years and then compare that to how the top 5 stocks in the S&P500 have driven most of its growth and it isn't a massive logical leap to join the dots. It's great on the way up, but it will accelerate just as much, if not more, on the way down. As much as I respect Jack Bogle, he created a monster.
When the market is on a tear, everybody yaks on about why active management is dead and is too expensive and adds no value, yet those same people are the ones filling their nappies when the market is on a downturn.
Where's the proof that active management is better in a downturn that passive? I'm all for passive and I haven't yet filled my nappy, what's the rationale for thinking people who prefer passive investment are more likely to **** themselves? I do agree somewhat the the big influx in passive funds is a bit of a one-time artificial inflation though.
Soldato
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Oil is doing well at present but I guess BP is going in line with usage, GDP. Because of the whole index thing it can sell off I guess, in general prices can be inaccurate. Burry isnt wrong but I dont know its something to fear exactly, people will just move to performing funds. He doesnt run an open fund afaik, who can blame him
Posting up some gobbly gook, we're down today and in the week but staying above 244 is still bullish for SPY on daily bars. Losing this area gives us the dynamic of '08; bailout then more falls for like 5 months anyway. Within that were some prices which were good to hold months before market generally had a bottom.
Its just harder to know which, I doubt deaths have entered decline as a rate and who is really going to relax before some cure, treatment or vaccine progresses so its not likely inversely market is at worse. However markets act in anticipation mostly, except unknowns
The weekly chart on the DOW looks horrendous, so my take is that its going to find a new lows over the next few weeks, i wouldn't be surprised if we get some news over the weekend that kick starts the whole thing off.
Soldato
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Why would he do this though? Isn't he in a position to kill off loads of shale companies?
My clients' money is down, since the February peak, on average 12% versus the market being closer to 25%. If you're buying passives you're getting the market, less fees.
e: if you really want to go hell for leather, if you're buying passives then you're usually buying cap-weighted index trackers, which means you're fly fishing with a lead weight at the end of your rod, i.e. it goes up quickly but drops just as fast.
My clients' money is down, since the February peak, on average 12% versus the market being closer to 25%. If you're buying passives you're getting the market, less fees.
e: if you really want to go hell for leather, if you're buying passives then you're usually buying cap-weighted index trackers, which means you're fly fishing with a lead weight at the end of your rod, i.e. it goes up quickly but drops just as fast.
Many invest for the long term, so unless expecting to cash out on a crash, it doesn't matter how much a fund drops, what matters is the overall growth over say 20 years. From everything I've seen, passive beats active funds 9 times out of 10 when fees are included.
Great update re: their debt. Expecting a rise over coming sessions. Not too late to buy in, although the open may be up from the close on Friday.
Soldato
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Really depends on the fees and how its structured, active doesnt have to be very expensive. Im mostly concerned on whether they offer any discernible advantage and thats why many goto passive, but thats partly on the customer failing to find a good product. Also I can trade passive myself without many costs, someone doing that is being active management.
20 years is a bit long, 6 years maybe 10 but I dont think we'll be waiting that long for current assets to be worth more then the cash required to own them. Any spike down from here is why scaling works, market gets irrational. The shale oil and gas isnt going away and will exist in 50 years from now but the companies who borrowed to then try and pay it back with extracted resource sales, they'll be taken over by larger firms. The debt will get defaulted on, I dont think this factor by itself is enough to call deflation or cash is king situation. More relevant is recovery rates % etc. on this virus and Im not clear on that.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
20 years is a bit long, 6 years maybe 10 but I dont think we'll be waiting that long for current assets to be worth more then the cash required to own them. Any spike down from here is why scaling works, market gets irrational. The shale oil and gas isnt going away and will exist in 50 years from now but the companies who borrowed to then try and pay it back with extracted resource sales, they'll be taken over by larger firms. The debt will get defaulted on, I dont think this factor by itself is enough to call deflation or cash is king situation. More relevant is recovery rates % etc. on this virus and Im not clear on that.
Solid dude, trading 30 years does this every week but thats 100% risky TA trading strat. I followed him like 12 years, always been legit operator imo
https://alphatrends.net/media/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
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Question; would folks be able to offer some thoughts as to why RBS shares are falling over the last three months?
https://www.fool.co.uk/investing/20...crashed-to-a-3-year-low-heres-what-id-do-now/
I appreciate historic issues pre/post 2008 as well as brand issues, but over the past year the bank appears to have cleared its feet (balance sheet stress resilience, end of PPI etc). In my view there is potential for the bank to return to a profitable core business, so what am I missing with the recent share price falls?
https://www.fool.co.uk/investing/20...crashed-to-a-3-year-low-heres-what-id-do-now/
I appreciate historic issues pre/post 2008 as well as brand issues, but over the past year the bank appears to have cleared its feet (balance sheet stress resilience, end of PPI etc). In my view there is potential for the bank to return to a profitable core business, so what am I missing with the recent share price falls?