Trading the stockmarket (NO Referrals)
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Soldato
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More good news then today.It is going to be an interesting decade, watching big oil divest, and legacy auto makers panicking to make themselves appear relevant again. It's going to be like Nokia vs. real smart phones all over again. Slow to start, and then bam gone like they never existed.
I'm not so sure. I do expect some old manufacturers to become irrelevant, but I don't think Tesla is going to become say the largest Auto manufacturer, maybe it might sneek into the top 5. I think it will continue to grow massively, but the gains will be more in other technologies like solar or batteries.
Pretty much everyone has self-driving tech, even non-car companies like Apple, Google, Dyson (though they stopped). I think the likes of Toyota could have produced a car similar to a Tesla a decade a go if they wanted. I reckon they could produce a Tesla tomorrow if they wanted. Same for Honda. BMW with Bosch also has some great tech. Bosch especially with cornering ABS (for bikes) on and motorcycles that can't crash.
The Nikola (not the Tesla) truck will be an interesting one. As the hybrid is going to have a hydrogen fuel cell and Nikola are working to add infrastructure across the US. I wonder if that could spell the return of Honda's fuel cell car they had out about 20 years ago.
Stonks gonna stonk.
Soldato
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They lose nearly $1bn a year. They need a cracking 2020 to break even. Can't see them increasing sales this year so perhaps they need to increase the margin slightly, which I think they have already done.
Soldato
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Over 100% now. Stonk! Still LTH for me I think regardless.
Who has self driving tech that is polished and market ready? Where’s the Apple and Google car I can buy? The Dyson project never got off the ground properly- it was hugely over ambitious, a failure and they know it.
Newcomers from Faraday Future (toast) and Karma (rumoured to be considering filing for bankruptcy) have struggled.
Your comments about Toyota, Honda, BMW and Bosch are way off the mark also. Only Honda and BMW have electric cars you can buy today. Honda’s has only just come to market and is more of a novelty than a serious volume contender.
Both Japanese companies led the way with hybrid tech, but have squandered their lead. BMW’s i3 has sold comparatively well, but is old now (introduced in 2013) and even the largest battery only gives a 150 mile range.
You’re underestimating the difficulties in maturing the technology, and also the past (present?) reluctance for large car companies to make the required transition. They’ve gifted Tesla a massive head start despite all the headwinds, which they shouldn’t have allowed to happen.
Agreed - Tesla are miles ahead of anyone in this market - like 5/8 years ahead of the "big" car companies.
I suspect, as other have said before, Tesla will eventually stop making cars, and simply license/supply their battery tech to other manufacturers. This is where they will make the money.
I suspect, as other have said before, Tesla will eventually stop making cars, and simply license/supply their battery tech to other manufacturers. This is where they will make the money.
Soldato
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I don't see it. The Tesla cars are expensive. It hasn't made massive in roads outside the US yet, though are growing rapidly. 50% it's sales are in California. I can't see it being the most popular model ones EV sales really take off in Europe.
I think in Europe in the next few years until the big manufacturers start designing their cars from the ground up with EV, Tesla will be in a strong position, but I expect to see more BMW I3 (the ICE has now been dropped), Renault Zoe, and VW ID3 than Tesla's on the roads of Europe.
Until very recently the Nissan Leaf which is ancient now, was the best selling EV worldwide.
But then I was a Nokia fan, was never impressed by the first few iPhones and thought Nokia should have developed symbian more. Other than the UI it was much better than iOS IMO.
I think in Europe in the next few years until the big manufacturers start designing their cars from the ground up with EV, Tesla will be in a strong position, but I expect to see more BMW I3 (the ICE has now been dropped), Renault Zoe, and VW ID3 than Tesla's on the roads of Europe.
Until very recently the Nissan Leaf which is ancient now, was the best selling EV worldwide.
But then I was a Nokia fan, was never impressed by the first few iPhones and thought Nokia should have developed symbian more. Other than the UI it was much better than iOS IMO.
Don't know if they'll necessarily stop making cars - not sure that necessarily benefits them, they can always license some of the tech (not just battery tech either) to others regardless. I mean not too different from buying engines etc.. from other manufacturers etc..
Would be nice to have a classic with a conversion kit... I do wonder about the current modded classics though, especially with the tech evolving rapidly... might be better to hold off on conversion. Bit niche but would be v.nice if the likes of Tesla or someone else were also able to supply to third parties interested in converting cars as well as licencing deals with manufacturers... Smaller car companies like Morgan who currently buy in their engines are going to be reliant on some third party to supply an electric engine, battery tech and AI etc.. if they want to survive too.
Much like Amazon they aren't a one trick pony. Amazon a bookstore, right? However look at AWS, and all of the other things they do. Tesla will be primarily an energy company that sells cars, and technology, and be heavily involved in renewable energy as well.
As for the cars, they have been given a head start they should have never had, they delivered 2,650 cars in 2012 and 367,500 in 2019, that is 138x more cars in 7 years vs 2012, even if they only do 5x that in the next 7 years that puts them on 1.8m cars per year. They have factories being built in Berlin, and Texas, and are looking at others already, and they are putting them up faster than anyone else can imagine, they have bought many companies that compliment the manufacturing process, and their vertical integration is unheard of in the automotive industry, oh and they have software that actually works!
However - they are not near the quality of German manufacturers.
For me it's highly likely that they will allow other manufacturers to buy their batteries / power unit in the future. I doubt it will be any time soon though, why would it? Right now all things look good for Tesla rising more.
True, but I can't go in to a Mercedes dealer and buy anything other than a giant SUV type affair if I want a BEV, and it costs over £60k. I told the local dealer that when I last took ours in for a service, and the sales guy was trying to downplay how good EV's were.
It's like buying a cheap item when it is out of stock, it's cheap, but you can't actually get one.
What energy do tesla make. They are good at storing it
I still thinks it’s Overpriced but it’s blown my mind how much they have pumped for a company that’s in $250b of debt and makes 110k car a year and yet to make a profit on fundamentals (without selling carbon credits to other OEMs which is a short term. Toyota make 2.4m cars !
maybe battery day has some massive speculation but I can’t help think back to ‘Buy on rumour sell on news’?
I still thinks it’s Overpriced but it’s blown my mind how much they have pumped for a company that’s in $250b of debt and makes 110k car a year and yet to make a profit on fundamentals (without selling carbon credits to other OEMs which is a short term. Toyota make 2.4m cars !
maybe battery day has some massive speculation but I can’t help think back to ‘Buy on rumour sell on news’?
For what it's worth I'm over 300% with TSLA and won't be selling until 1000%. Lots of people here seem to be overlooking the fact THEY ARE NOT A CAR COMPANY. They're an energy company that's currently making cars, much the same way Amazon are not a retail store, they're a logistics company.
The other car companies have been caught napping and will all fall to tesla at this rate.
They are dinosaurs.