Trading the stockmarket (NO Referrals)
- Thread starter mcast123
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Soldato
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Problem with physical silver, at least today(maybe not 2009), is the 20% VAT and then the usual costs with handling/storing (if not taking delivery). Need to make 20% profit just to cover the VAT as you won't get that back.
Nice shiny door steps tho
The premium over the spot price for silver is 50-100%, while gold is 5-10%
If you buy Silver Britannia's from the royal mint, works out to 80% premium over spot. Baird and co, works out to 50% premium.
I invest in silver via an etf, its just much better. With gold i do both, but i don't want too much physical gold as i consider that equivalent to a pension of sorts, or just, very long term.
Legal tender is not VAT exempt, its only CGT exempt.
Its gold bullion that's VAT exempt.
Soldato
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I've held Gold and Platinum in the past (via RM) and also a managed fund (Blackrock Gold & General).
Good idea on the Silver ETF. I looked into those a while ago too, but not yet used.
I'm not bullish on metals atm. Will see how this idea pans out tho, might be wrong.
Soldato
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I've started shopping at Iceland part of the time, because I can get an online delivery really easily at the moment. I haven't had a decent sausage roll from supermarkets for years, and the last time I shopped at Greggs was whenever they stopped doing teacakes, which is years ago. Started that habit back in the 80s when I'd regularly head down to the far end of the Manchester Arndale Centre to stock up on teacakes and assorted saturated fats.
Unfortunately for my arteries, Iceland's Greggs frozen range, and particularly the sausage rolls, are the dog's borrox! Well, hopefully the pig's porrox and eyelids etc. Darned tasty! I shall continue to be a buyer, though whether I'll be enough to push the share price up much is up for debate.
High street footfall must be down across the board- meaning that all businesses relying on passing trade are feeling it. I just think with something like Greggs, barriers to entry are pretty low. Anyone can set up producing that kind of food, though it would take time to scale and build a brand of course. Tastes changes quickly too. There might be a Lebanese street food revolution in the future that crushes all in its path.
Soldato
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I'm not sure many Greggs customers would Beiruting for that. #badumtss
Funny old world, as I don't disagree with your logic but disagree with the conclusion.
Greggs has a vertically integrated supply chain. My reading of their strategy/finances is that they so wholly dominate that space on the high street that new start ups will be crushed.
Of course there will be competition in the fast-snack space, but really who do you see challenging Greggs? They have control of practically every variable in their operations - of course barring black swan events!
Say there's a prolonged recession - how are premium operators going to cope with a place that can feed a family for a fiver or thereabouts? Greggs will screw down their prices and costs to such a degree that it's almost unfair. The Lebanese place will exist - sure - but can they scale to in any way challenge such an established player?
The footfall drop is a challenge, but unless this virus has caused a fundamental shift in the way towns and cities work, then it's only a matter of time until things revert to the mean.
Of course there is a bear case. Your point about tastes changing being a true one. As is competition from the supermarkets who dominate too and can use the same strategy of driving down prices.
I view Greggs as like McDonald's - a stalwart of the HS which, like it or loathe it, is part of public consciousness and will take a while to shift.
Greggs has a vertically integrated supply chain. My reading of their strategy/finances is that they so wholly dominate that space on the high street that new start ups will be crushed.
Of course there will be competition in the fast-snack space, but really who do you see challenging Greggs? They have control of practically every variable in their operations - of course barring black swan events!
Say there's a prolonged recession - how are premium operators going to cope with a place that can feed a family for a fiver or thereabouts? Greggs will screw down their prices and costs to such a degree that it's almost unfair. The Lebanese place will exist - sure - but can they scale to in any way challenge such an established player?
The footfall drop is a challenge, but unless this virus has caused a fundamental shift in the way towns and cities work, then it's only a matter of time until things revert to the mean.
Of course there is a bear case. Your point about tastes changing being a true one. As is competition from the supermarkets who dominate too and can use the same strategy of driving down prices.
I view Greggs as like McDonald's - a stalwart of the HS which, like it or loathe it, is part of public consciousness and will take a while to shift.
Humour and share chat are a welcome mix!Sounds like you've done your homework and thought it through. Who would you say their main competitors are? From the PoV of a customer, whenever i've used their stores, they seem like a solid operation. As you imply, perhaps their main strength is how lean and efficient their supply chain is.
Sounds like you've done your homework and thought it through. Who would you say their main competitors are? From the PoV of a customer, whenever i've used their stores, they seem like a solid operation. As you imply, perhaps their main strength is how lean and efficient their supply chain is.
Oddly their main competitors are, imo, boots (meal deal), subway and the big supermarkets. I think the Starbucks of this world are more premium - a family of 4 would be, what...£20?
With that said, I don't see these as direct competition. If you just want a quick snack, what better than a little pizza slice or pasty for a couple of quid? Add a coffee for a quid and you've a nice lunch.
I think one of their strengths is their marketing. Their social media game is on point, and you'll have seen the frenzy over the vegan rolls!
I really do think the road ahead is bumpy and results won't be pretty. But I'd say they're priced in to an extent - it'll not surprise people that they've sold nothing!
I've traded it a little and been lucky, but my lth position will be added to over time. See potential 20-30% upside to current prices and possibly in short order.
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Soldato
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Two difficult sectors atm IMO. Not saying bad choices necessarily but quietly being talked about are more banks in trouble (again) and oil companies, although in the case of oil, probably not the majors like Shell or BP. But if you must, pick the best in each sector. I hold some in both sectors but if building a portfolio right now I don't think these would be first on my list. Contrarian long term hold? Sure. BP does atm pay a good dividend (10%) but that could be slashed, who knows?
I'd be temped to just buy a FTSE 100 ETF or mid 250 to capture a general recovery. But, I think markets have further to fall,IMO, so I'd at least keep some funds available for buying lower.
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Have a hunt for my post on HSBC a while back.
Just to confirm, the volatility of the markets earlier this year made it really easy to make money while virtual trading on 212.
I'm still massively up at 44% over 3 months. But significantly down over the last month. At one point I was over 100% up.
I'm still massively up at 44% over 3 months. But significantly down over the last month. At one point I was over 100% up.
Soldato
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Just had a thought. Over in the US they're all hyped about the likes of Tesla, Amazon, Apple, Google etc. UK, yep, it's Greggs, good old sausage rolls & pasties .
The good tech companies we seem to have lost abroad, such as ARM technologies.
Can anyone think of any up and coming or exciting tech stocks here?
.The good tech companies we seem to have lost abroad, such as ARM technologies.
Can anyone think of any up and coming or exciting tech stocks here?
Soldato
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Selling a stock and the next guy makes a profit is a good idea. If theres no profit left then the trade was risky. The smart bit is moving from one trade to another I guess, capture the rise not aim for a peak or capture bullish sectors where a rising tide raises all boats. Makes people think they are smart when its just being in the right place. This whole thread should be flooded with gold stock trades and its not despite performance figures being ridiculous for some of those stocks and yet justified because the commodity rose quite aggressively in context. A stock play is leveraged, more risk, plain gold coin is like a piggybank in comparison I guess its fair but I compare this to the valid idea of repaying house debt as a security play not growth exactly.
I long since lost the video but profit margin expansion explains why commodity stocks are so extreme I think, its natural gearing. I'm still surprised they came back this strong post pandemic. FRES is the largest silver miner in the world, even has gold in there and its right here on the ftse. Gone 100p to £20 previously and that was reasonable when silver has been $50 from the teens. Silver is industrial, its mined alongside lead etc. its far harder to judge.
Any question on FTSE stock, the answer is the same to hold the FTSE fund. Buy the fund (monthly), read the news on the stock you like vs the chart and maybe at some point play that on top or dont because trading is far more of a pain vs just being in the right place year to year. Currency is weak for the next decade so I dont think the fund is wrong imo.
I do hold sovereigns but I never sold as the spread is a cost and for UK the price is seperate, I do doubt sterling is bullish vs gold but its not impossible. Overall I wish I had stuck to my view world growth is less then stated due to inflation inaccuracies and thats reflected in weak oil demand which should be far higher from 2bn new consumers but its not there. Ironic that woodford was right on oil and yet he is gone, he played everything wrong or maybe he is UK version of Michael Burry in the Big short story.
In a bull market you want the stocks imo not the unleveraged base commodity unless its your mortgage payments then fair enough. Its tons risky, POG has risen a lot and every time I read about them it sounds like civil war. Cheap oil is fabulous for miners I guess, some ones loss is another anothers gain.
Tech - I did mention SOPH a while back I think, it was an IPO and its really not a new company but the owners selling into the market. It fell a bit but ultimately it was a great idea to be involved and bullish because security is increasingly relevant to the main market and this whole distance thing has only backed up tech as valid. Anyhow they are private now, that play is done. We have AVST on our market, I dont think its cheap but if someone takes a look and can decide a lot of tech is never cheap and just keeps getting less cheap so maybe its valid but I'd rather buy in harsh pullbacks.
I had CSCO when it was in the teens and I sold in the twenties because tech is hard to judge and I was leveraged but I should have transferred that to a tech fund would be a great idea, in a hard pullback I think thats relevant. All I have now is an asia fund that includes some tech and I rely on them to be smart about it and it pays 5% which I probably try to put into gold or rebalance.
Tone Vays discusses crypto, I think he is very reasonable and considers all markets. BTC is just driftwood in the larger tide at present. My personal take is neutral to negative, this entire year is just a loop and that view was reasonable post the action a year ago.
I posted vids on last post as the sentiment there, ignoring any details, is so extreme. They manage billions and their perspective is quite reasonable but its not especially acknowledged and we wont discuss it approaching Nov election but everything they say is WMD
I long since lost the video but profit margin expansion explains why commodity stocks are so extreme I think, its natural gearing. I'm still surprised they came back this strong post pandemic. FRES is the largest silver miner in the world, even has gold in there and its right here on the ftse. Gone 100p to £20 previously and that was reasonable when silver has been $50 from the teens. Silver is industrial, its mined alongside lead etc. its far harder to judge.
Any question on FTSE stock, the answer is the same to hold the FTSE fund. Buy the fund (monthly), read the news on the stock you like vs the chart and maybe at some point play that on top or dont because trading is far more of a pain vs just being in the right place year to year. Currency is weak for the next decade so I dont think the fund is wrong imo.
I do hold sovereigns but I never sold as the spread is a cost and for UK the price is seperate, I do doubt sterling is bullish vs gold but its not impossible. Overall I wish I had stuck to my view world growth is less then stated due to inflation inaccuracies and thats reflected in weak oil demand which should be far higher from 2bn new consumers but its not there. Ironic that woodford was right on oil and yet he is gone, he played everything wrong or maybe he is UK version of Michael Burry in the Big short story.
In a bull market you want the stocks imo not the unleveraged base commodity unless its your mortgage payments then fair enough. Its tons risky, POG has risen a lot and every time I read about them it sounds like civil war. Cheap oil is fabulous for miners I guess, some ones loss is another anothers gain.
Tech - I did mention SOPH a while back I think, it was an IPO and its really not a new company but the owners selling into the market. It fell a bit but ultimately it was a great idea to be involved and bullish because security is increasingly relevant to the main market and this whole distance thing has only backed up tech as valid. Anyhow they are private now, that play is done. We have AVST on our market, I dont think its cheap but if someone takes a look and can decide a lot of tech is never cheap and just keeps getting less cheap so maybe its valid but I'd rather buy in harsh pullbacks.
I had CSCO when it was in the teens and I sold in the twenties because tech is hard to judge and I was leveraged but I should have transferred that to a tech fund would be a great idea, in a hard pullback I think thats relevant. All I have now is an asia fund that includes some tech and I rely on them to be smart about it and it pays 5% which I probably try to put into gold or rebalance.
Tone Vays discusses crypto, I think he is very reasonable and considers all markets. BTC is just driftwood in the larger tide at present. My personal take is neutral to negative, this entire year is just a loop and that view was reasonable post the action a year ago.
I posted vids on last post as the sentiment there, ignoring any details, is so extreme. They manage billions and their perspective is quite reasonable but its not especially acknowledged and we wont discuss it approaching Nov election but everything they say is WMD
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