Trading the stockmarket (NO Referrals)

Between America's tit and China's tat, it seems commodities are on the rise again. I wonder if Gold get to $2000 this year?

Handouts in the US are due to end after 31st July, unless a new package is confirmed that's going to leave an awful lot of people poorer, and with the restrictions on evictions end too, probably more homeless. Things aren't looking good in the states.
 
Funny old game, isn't it? Greggs retuning to 75% of pre-covid sales, despite the headwinds. The loss is expected, but the bigger message seems very promising to me. Stocks up 2pc as I write this, although it is very early days...

Wild day - 2pc down now! This is definitely one for the ISA/LTH, I reckon.

Other shares having a great day so far...
 
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Skeptic said:
Ah yes - shares can go up AND down. Great point.
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Turning a quick trade into a LTH or go into an ISA is one of the mistake of a fresh person to the stock markets though. Selling at a loss is one of the hardest things but its key (and bloody hard). If you think they go up then they go down then sometimes you have to take it as you were wrong, close a few percent and move on.

There is always the hope they go back up but what if you end up 20% down in 3 months time.
 
I wouldn't be going near any retail or airlines with a bargepole right now.
GRG was a brave choice with second waves brewing

Far more potential downside than up with highsteet stocks
 
413x said:
I wouldn't be going near any retail or airlines with a bargepole right now.
GRG was a brave choice with second waves brewing

Far more potential downside than up with highsteet stocks
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Yet you’re banking on Aviva?! There’s just as much risk there! Not saying it’s not a decent pick, but hardly a risk free investment itself.

£6m buys vs £3m sells today in GRG. This was never about their profit through COVID - they hardly sold a thing - but instead the recovery play. They’ve received approx 75% of their normal NON-COVID trading since they’ve reopened.

So, despite all the threats of catching the virus, many workers being furloughed/WFH, the threat of people ‘not willing to queue’, the limited range they did at first, the phased reopening and so on, they’ve still managed to get to 75% of the norm. They break even at 80%.

This is only a little punt for me, so am not precious about its performance compared to my bigger investments, but trying to be as objective as possible leads me to find the investment case compelling.

I think we’ve had pretty clear telegraphing from the gov that national lockdowns are virtually off the table for good, and we will have localised lockdowns if necessary. With that risk removed, insofar as is possible, I can’t find better value on the HS.

The CEO has said the alignment of GRG with city workers is false - that much of their trade comes from different subsections of society, so I find this to be way oversold. I won’t bore you with the calculations I have in mind, but can’t see it staying down here for long.

A well run, recently profitable, growing business - with institutional investors - and a national footprint for these prices...

The bear case is still obvious: fewer people, fewer sales, fewer stores. I’m not ignorant to it...
 
Skeptic said:
Funny old game, isn't it? Greggs retuning to 75% of pre-covid sales, despite the headwinds. The loss is expected, but the bigger message seems very promising to me. Stocks up 2pc as I write this, although it is very early days...

Wild day - 2pc down now! This is definitely one for the ISA/LTH, I reckon.

Other shares having a great day so far...
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On it's way back to the low 13s now. I shorted at 15p. Seems we both made something on opposite sides. Shows how it's not a zero sum game.
 
As above, hardly a little punt is it!? This was my point, i was confused how much you had in with little punt and 5 figures

Are you averaging down now they at 1369 (-6.2% on the day ) ?

If break even is 80% and they only did 75% in the 'golden time' they are losing money. Lets be honest the streets are going to get quieter now with local lockdowns looking more likely. I called it at the start, questioned myself, believed some of what i read, took a punt, lost a bit, exited and now will watch. Maybe 1000 will arrive soon
 
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Ahleckz said:
I'm not sure the majority of people here would consider a 5 figure amount as a "little punt", but it is all relative!
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Sorry - to clarify - I know it’s a lot of money, but it’s a punt insofar as it being money that, if lost, would be a PITA, but not ‘life is over’ levels. I also try not to get caught up on the daily movements of share prices, unless there’s a big change - i.e. today with GRG. I look at my portfolio as a whole and, as long as the number keeps going up, how it gets there is not a concern.

I’m not a flash Harry, but recognise that there are up and downs with this whole game. I try and approach it with a sense of respect, and don’t rub people’s faces in it when they get it ‘wrong’; not every horse can be a winner.

Instead I try and offer a transparent perspective of why I think a share will over or underperform.
 
Just to add - the reason I initially mentioned the amount that I had in was simple: to demonstrate that I enter into the discussion here in good faith, and that I actually have skin in the game. It would be easy for somebody - anybody! - to come here and lie about their successes (somebody lying on the internet - surely not!?) but if people aren’t going to be honest then it’s a waste of time for all of us.

In fact, when I think about it, this thread can be a little toxic. We are all here for the same reason, so I’m not sure why there’s often an undertone to people’s commentary.

This year has been pretty good, so far: positives with GSK (trade), AZN (trade), AA(trade), AAZ(trade), CAML(LTH), GDWN(LTH), LGEN(trade), GRG (trade) but failures with CARD (LTH - realised) and GRG (LTH - unrealised).

I hope others are having a good year - but reflecting on a comment the other day about how some people are likely nursing huge losses - I think it’s important that successes are championed, but failures aren’t ridiculed.
 
I guess personally I find it an unusual choice of gregs.

I kind of get it if you think there wasn't going to be a second wave. But in my head I put that in the same space as the airlines and other bricks and mortar retail.
For me that risk group was down, as I was sure of a second wave.

I thought aviva was a little more safe, as in I will have some warning to get out. I've now a stop Loss to make sure I don't go negative.
It will follow the others but less dramatically

4k in av. Had nothing before, nothing else either.
 
Simon said:
As above, hardly a little punt is it!? This was my point, i was confused how much you had in with little punt and 5 figures

Are you averaging down now they at 1369 (-6.2% on the day ) ?

If break even is 80% and they only did 75% in the 'golden time' they are losing money. Lets be honest the streets are going to get quieter now with local lockdowns looking more likely. I called it at the start, questioned myself, believed some of what i read, took a punt, lost a bit, exited and now will watch. Maybe 1000 will arrive soon
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Sorry for your loss. I won’t be averaging down - not because I don’t believe in the company, but I am pretty heavy in cash in advance of buying a new home. I anticipate they will go to 1000, maybe even lower. Will check back in about 3 years :)

Edit: Just to expand on the 75% bit. My reading of the update was that since their estate has begun to reopen, despite the high-streets being quieter etc, that they have returned to 75% of their normal footfall. In short: although the world is fundamentally different at the moment, they are still getting reasonable inflow into the stores.

For my money this signifies good news. Much of the country is still WFH, but they’ve seen a pretty promising recovery. What will happen when the world gets back to normal? Considering 865,522 shares were bought today, vs 707,166 sold, it strikes me that I’m not the only one on this ride.
 
In other punt news, showing it's not all puppies and rainbows, my £1k punt in Hemogenyx is now the right side of being 50% down. So that's a positive as it was an even bigger loss recently... I don't really see the point in selling for a 50% loss, as you never know, they may do something and being a punt it's not the end of the world if it goes to nothing. I am laughing that I managed to buy in at the highest possible price point...

I've given up on shares, and just topped up my historically well performing funds. It always worked for me (pre Covid) so just going to stick to that rather than the gambling which is individual stocks imo.
 
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