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Could high prices be here to stay?

Man of Honour
Joined
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To be clear by 'here to stay' I'm not talking about ongoing mining influences and low supply boosting prices through next year, I'm talking a 'permanent' realignment to a position where people can't just drop £300 every couple of years and get a big upgrade.

Traditionally I have held the view that graphics card prices will eventually return to 'normal' levels, i.e. nearly all cards priced below £1000 and midrange cards under £500 at some point (perhaps 2023) when supply has ramped up (new manufacturing comes online) and potentially a drop in the mining validity. Similar to what we saw after the 2017 boom.

However, I was wondering if a sustained period of elevated pricing with stock jumping off shelves might convince manufacturers that they have been underpricing GPUs and should be launching new product at higher levels. So something like a RTX3080 equivalent would have an RRP of £999 for example instead of £649, with 3070 at £749 and 3060ti at £499. Just examples, the numbers don't really matter.

My brain tells me that market forces should drive down the prices towards a lower equilibrium level, due to the potential for undercutting competitors (once the supply situation improves). But my heart tells me maybe there's an opportunity here for a real shift, make high end PC gaming what it was 25+ years ago, a very expensive hobby. The one thing I'm not sure about though is sales volumes, is there enough demand to sustain high pricing even with higher supply volumes, or is the reality that despite everything being out of stock, there aren't actually that many units being shifted?
 
High prices are here to stay. AMD and NV now know what people are prepared to spend so they will keep fleecing.

Why would they lower prices when there’s no need. Even when stock stabilises prices will remain pretty much as they are and people will still buy them, irrespective of mining.
 
No they will dip, if you remove demand from crypto you only have early adopters and fanatical enthusiasts left that will pay high prices which is likely a small percent of the market, once the inventory starts building the prices will drop. having gpu costs between 50-90% of the total build is damaging to the pc market
 
Quite a few sides to it. AMD will probably favour higher GPU prices as a wafer made with a bunch of GPU cores is a lot less lucrative for them under the current conditions than using the same wafer to make other products like Zen cores. (This is also partly why nVidia have gone Samsung 8nm with GPUs and used their TSMC. etc. allocations on commercial/professional lines). Additionally AMD have said they want to shake off any perception of them as a budget brand and become a premium brand in CPU and GPU space so we'll probably see some changes in their approach to the GPU market (probably part of the reason they've loaded many of their cards with 16GB VRAM, etc.).

nVidia doesn't really like it when customers have an incentive to hold onto their older cards as long as possible as they like to invest in the technologies surrounding the new generations of cards (comments like telling your friends it is now safe to upgrade from Pascal, etc. aren't just idle ones) so they can use that to insert their brand into more areas and sell more professional products as well. I suspect they will continue to try and leverage the 3070FE kind of performance and price point but the higher end GPUs will probably not come down in price.

No they will dip, if you remove demand from crypto you only have early adopters and fanatical enthusiasts left that will pay high prices which is likely a small percent of the market, once the inventory starts building the prices will drop. having gpu costs between 50-90% of the total build is damaging to the pc market

Crypto demand will have a huge impact - I can't remember the exact numbers but AMD and nVidia were claiming something like they'd shipped 1.9x and 2.1x as many cores to AIBs as previous two generations at that point time wise post release when the comments were made - which given the seeming shortage of them in enthusiast hands going by for instance owner threads vs similar point in time for previous generations suggests a lot are mysteriously not making it to retail and/or ending up going to miners and the likes.
 
Very good question.

Is the demand the same or skewed due to the pandemic? Gaming is an ideal lockdown pastime so may have spiked demand.

Supply - again due to the pandemic and brexit, materials are scarce. The UK has massive increases in building material costs, particularly timber.

Mining - well yeah, we all know there's a demand for making money doing nothing but using energy (mostly fossil fuels) but times are tough and it fairly lucrative if times are hard or you are just greedy.

Just hope those that mine are happy to tell their kids - loooong after we all knew about climate change and energy consumption issues, that they needed a few more bob by doing NOTHING.

blockchain style finances are here to stay - to move away from the supposed control over the FIAT monetary system and the globally recognized $dollar. - but the energy required to run these non-mint currencies needs to be sustainable.

If GPU prices stay high then so will consoles - they may make a profit on consoles seeing as they were always sold at a loss.
 
No. If you think gamers ( except the 1% ) are willing to spend 4x the MSRP just to have slightly higher details than a 10 times cheaper console, you’re dreaming.

The pc gaming market would crash, from games to hardware sales. No gpus - cant run next gen games - no point investing in porting games that only a small % can even run , rest of the pc components will drop as well since people arent buying gpus etc etc. Whole stack of dominos dropping like nothing.
 
Prices crash if gpu cyrpto mining does. They will run out of people willing to pay £1000-£2000 for a graphics card very very quickly. Not to mention the used market will be flooded.
 
Personally, I suspect AMD and Nvidia will be unwilling to flood the market with enough gpu cards to encourage much of a price drop.
Yes, they will supply more when they can. However they will control the availability, and thus prices. Prices will drop a bit. But like other major commodities, they'll try to control the availability so they get the optimum return. They'd like to keep their profits high.
 
To be clear by 'here to stay' I'm not talking about ongoing mining influences and low supply boosting prices through next year, I'm talking a 'permanent' realignment to a position where people can't just drop £300 every couple of years and get a big upgrade.

Traditionally I have held the view that graphics card prices will eventually return to 'normal' levels, i.e. nearly all cards priced below £1000 and midrange cards under £500 at some point (perhaps 2023) when supply has ramped up (new manufacturing comes online) and potentially a drop in the mining validity. Similar to what we saw after the 2017 boom.

However, I was wondering if a sustained period of elevated pricing with stock jumping off shelves might convince manufacturers that they have been underpricing GPUs and should be launching new product at higher levels. So something like a RTX3080 equivalent would have an RRP of £999 for example instead of £649, with 3070 at £749 and 3060ti at £499. Just examples, the numbers don't really matter.

My brain tells me that market forces should drive down the prices towards a lower equilibrium level, due to the potential for undercutting competitors (once the supply situation improves). But my heart tells me maybe there's an opportunity here for a real shift, make high end PC gaming what it was 25+ years ago, a very expensive hobby. The one thing I'm not sure about though is sales volumes, is there enough demand to sustain high pricing even with higher supply volumes, or is the reality that despite everything being out of stock, there aren't actually that many units being shifted?

10-15 years ago it used to be £100-£150 for a good upper mid card

so going by that 10 years from now will be £600-£900 and thats based on rrp just for a mid range
 
Personally, I suspect AMD and Nvidia will be unwilling to flood the market with enough gpu cards to encourage much of a price drop.
Yes, they will supply more when they can. However they will control the availability, and thus prices. Prices will drop a bit. But like other major commodities, they'll try to control the availability so they get the optimum return. They'd like to keep their profits high.

run on a Nintendo model make the product seem more premium by restricting supply
 
Covid 19 lockdown, the mining profitability and production shortages are three reasons for the ludicrous prices and two of those reasons will soon evaporate. The value proposition for GPUs for gaming is pretty tenuous at MSRP never mind at two or three times that price. Just look at the reluctance of people on this forum to pay the insane prices cards are selling for and this is a self selected enthusiast forum with many willing to pay far more than mainstream consumers. Money saved by those working from home in lockdown is being spent on such things but there will be many more interesting things to spend that money on very soon. Prices return to normal but it my well take another year. Fortunately there are few if any decent new games that really justify an upgrade at the moment so its win win. The 3080FE at £650 is going to look poor value in early 2022 although that may seem hard to believe now, there's going to be a big correction and hopefully my cards can soldier on until then.
 
If mining continues to be big then not much chance I fear, if on the other hand a few more blows to crypto comes along like Elon Musk’s statement the other day about Tesla not accepting bitcoins any longer and its subsequent fall then no.

Personally I think a lot of consumer damage has been done by the ridiculous prices of GPU’s and many will be looking at the next gen consoles -when and if they get their supply chain act together - myself included.

I love my pc gaming but increasingly can’t justify the huge outlay required to maintain the hobby at a higher level as I’d like to....
 
Considering the consumer is so desperate to overpay, it's obvious that high prices are here to stay.

Lol if you think £649 for a 3080 is a bargain. Your mind has already been moulded into a new normal.

I remember when the high end was £250. That's what normal really is.
 
I think they will try to keep the prices high.....
But if mining with the newer cards drop off due to locking them down to half the hash rate
I can't see normal people spending £600-£1000 on a newer card Every few years
 
If I have to pay £500 at least for a mid range graphics card then that’s me out of PC gaming. No more upgrades of any sort and likely no more PC. Can’t see myself being the only one in this boat so we will begin to see repercussions all the way down the line as hardware sales drop and more gamers move over to consoles once again.
 
To be clear by 'here to stay' I'm not talking about ongoing mining influences and low supply boosting prices through next year, I'm talking a 'permanent' realignment to a position where people can't just drop £300 every couple of years and get a big upgrade.

Well that ability doesn't come from prices so much, it comes from the technological growth we have. Moore's law while now starting to wobble a bit and become less reliable is still largely allowing us to shrink transistor sizes and cram more power into the same size chip for about the same cost. And it's advances in this that allow you to go and buy a new card 2-3 years later and get a decent upgrade.

Now prices may increase due to low supply and high demand that's true, but what you're talking about is relative performance over time and relative price over time. You may have to drop to a lower price bracket if prices remain high, for example if you'd normally get something like a 3080 you might be forced down to a 3060, but the kicker is that next generations 4060 will still be an upgrade over what you have now.

In terms of raw price, I don't think we'll see "normal" GPU prices for certainly at least 1 year but probably closer to 2, because even when new production comes online there will be a huge backlog of people waiting, and there will be even more devices demanding chips, as well as new CPUs and GPUs which will be in high demand all over again.
 
Even at 650 rrp the 3080 is the most expensive GPU I have ever bought. In the current circumstances it is a reasonable price but if everything was normal then I would probably not have bought it.
 
Depends
Considering the consumer is so desperate to overpay, it's obvious that high prices are here to stay.

Lol if you think £649 for a 3080 is a bargain. Your mind has already been moulded into a new normal.

I remember when the high end was £250. That's what normal really is.

They are overpaying because of the lack of stock. If there is stock and nobody is buying then prices will come down.
 
Even without mining and scalpers I think higher prices are here to stay, not insane as they are now but still higher than before, as they know people will just bend over and take the increase.
 
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